21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles
Dobber Sports
2024-10-13
Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber
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The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is available in the Dobber Shop! The nice thing is that because it is digital-only, updates were made as news changed.
Our French version of the Guide, Le Guide des Poolers, is also available via this link.
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1. First off, it’s great to be back writing about actual games again. After a long summer of predictions and projections, we can finally find out how everything will play out.
Following a memorable debut with a first-period goal and assist, Macklin Celebrini is considered questionable for tonight’s (Saturday) game with a lower-body injury. Celebrini was battling a lower-body issue during training camp, so this injury could end up resulting in some missed regular-season time for the first overall pick. (On Saturday, the Sharks placed Celebrini on the injury list.)
I caught some of Celebrini’s debut on Thursday night, paying attention to the San Jose power play in particular to see what effect Celebrini would have. One detail I noticed from that game is that offseason acquisition Jake Walman was on the top power play. San Jose isn’t particularly deep on the blueline, as Walman and Oilers castoff Cody Ceci led the team in icetime. Walman logged nearly 25 minutes, which is to suggest that he could be worth targeting in multicategory leagues as well as deeper leagues. Walman has never been a huge scorer in either the NHL or AHL, so he may not remain in the PP1 role all season. (oct12)
2. Matvei Michkov made his NHL debut on Friday in Vancouver. The Calder Trophy favorite did not get onto the scoresheet, but he took four shots in 18 minutes, seeming to be more prominent as the game went on. Michkov was on the Flyers’ top power play, a unit that finished dead last in the league last season with a dismal 12.2% conversion rate. The Flyers’ top power play looked rather disorganized in this game, with their power-play goal coming from their second unit. There are still 81 more games for the Flyers to play, but I wonder how much that power play could drag Michkov’s point total down. Honestly, I thought the Sharks’ top power play mentioned above looked stronger and more in sync, for what that’s worth. On the flipside, Michkov can only improve his team’s top unit.
Celebrini or Michkov? Find out who the Dobber writers like for the Calder Trophy in their season predictions. (oct12)
3. The Flyers also had another (slightly less-heralded) rookie playing in his first NHL game. Jett Luchanko, who was the 13th overall pick in this year’s draft, was also held without a point while taking one shot in 14 minutes (four minutes less than Michkov). The Flyers were thought to be reaching for him in the draft, but they seem to have a ton of faith in him if he is already playing in the NHL. Luchanko is barely 18 years old and the youngest player to ever suit up for the Flyers, but he’s already a player on the nine-game audition watch list. He might deserve more attention in keeper leagues that you might have originally thought as well. For more, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (oct12)
4. The Panthers did not provide an update on Aleksander Barkov on Friday, although David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reported that Barkov is week-to-week with a bad sprain. Barkov had to be helped off the ice after he slid into the boards late in Thursday’s game. If that is in fact the injury, those rostering Barkov should be okay with that, as it could have been something that was a lot worse. (oct12)
5. Following their trip to Europe, the injury news did not seem ideal for the Buffalo Sabres as both JJ Peterka and Zach Benson left games across the pond with different injuries. Both had returned to practice for the Sabres back in North America, but neither seemed probable to be in the lineup for the home opener on Thursday night.
In a bit of good news/bad news situation, Benson did return to the lineup and was slotted on the top line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. However, Peterka did not return from his concussion so Jiri Kulich took the second-line left wing role next to Dylan Cozens. A rough start to a season that showed a lot of promise for the Sabres. (oct11)
6. There had been some ominous tweets about the status of Boone Jenner, and it was not good news for his 2024-25 season:
Aaron Portzline @Aportzline: #CBJ announce that captain Boone Jenner had shoulder surgery today in Vail, Colo.
GM Don Waddell: "… our hope is he can return before the end of the season."
At best, it seems as if Jenner will be back around the Trade Deadline, at worst it may mean his season is over already. Just a brutal break for a guy that has had a lot of injury issues over the years on top of his personal tragedies. (oct11)
7. Some good news on goaltender Logan Thompson:
Tom Gulitti @TomGulittiNHL: Capitals coach Spencer Carbery said Logan Thompson (personal/family) should be back at practice tomorrow.
Washington opens the season on Saturday night but doesn’t have a back-to-back until October 22nd and 23rd. It will be interesting to see how Washington handles their goalie rotation early in the season – they could have two viable starting goaltenders, but there’s always a chance they just ride the hot hand. We will find out soon enough. (oct11)
8. More good injury news, this time on Florida defenceman Adam Boqvist:
Jameson Olive @JamesonCoop: Cats holding an optional morning skate in Ottawa.
Adam Boqvist is on the ice wearing a shield after getting hit in the face with a puck on Tuesday.
It sure seems as if he’s avoided a worst-case scenario after taking the puck to the face on Tuesday night. Let’s hope he can get back soon; this is another guy who has had brutal injury luck over the years. (oct11)
9. Watching Seattle’s first game, Shane Wright was consistently one of the more notable player on the ice, and always in a good way. Him taking a big step forward for this franchise would go a long way to helping get them back to the playoffs. There is a lot of time between now and April, though. (oct11)
10. An update on Los Angeles winger Arthur Kaliyev: He may be out until December, and depending on how the team is doing, he may not have a regular spot on the NHL roster at that point. Hopefully he can get back on the lower end of that estimate and re-establish himself as a young scorer in this league. (oct11)
11. There has been a lot of chatter over the last several months when it comes to goaltenders and contracts. There was Jeremy Swayman in Boston who didn’t get his extension until the weekend and thus didn’t start the season opener. There was also Ilya Sorokin and Connor Hellebuyck starting their new $8M+ AAV deals this season, the Juuse Saros extension, and more. It appears teams have reversed the trend of not paying goalies and hoping to go middle-of-the-road and get by.
There was another big extension on Wednesday morning, this time in Ottawa with Linus Ullmark: Four years, $8.25 million. This is only four years, and not eight, but it’s a hefty chunk of change for a goalie that has yet to play a game with the team. Ottawa may have had to overpay because they’ve been a losing franchise for several years now, but they have locked up their crease for the time being. (oct10)
12. The goaltender extensions didn’t stop there as Joey Daccord got a new contract from Seattle. Elliotte Friedman: "hearing 5x5M". These kinds of things are weeks, if not months, in the works, but it is funny that it comes the morning after Philipp Grubauer had a shaky season opener. Daccord is in the last year of his current deal, and Grubauer has two more after this, so barring a buyout/trade of Grubauer, the Kraken will be paying nearly $11M per season for their goaltending tandem starting in 2025-26. If Daccord can keep up his momentum from last season, this is a steal, but we know how these things can go with netminders. (oct10)
13. One hope that I (and I assume other fantasy managers) had going into the 2024-25 season was that Alex DeBrincat would line up both on the top line and top power play unit in Detroit for most of the season. We know how high his offensive ceiling is when he has good deployment, and he got that through most of training camp.
I hate to rain on the parade, but DeBrincat was taken off PP1 at one point this past week. Like Buffalo, this seems to be a fluid situation that can change quickly, but Detroit does not have the offensive depth to support high-end fantasy seasons if DeBrincat is stuck on the second power play unit. Something to monitor. (oct10)
14. For Vegas’s season opener on Wednesday night, the coaches decided to move Victor Olofsson to the top line in place of Ivan Barbashev, moving Barbashev down to the third line with Nicolas Roy. If it were to hold, that would give Olofsson top line/top power play status for the Golden Knights.
It has been a while since Olofsson has been a meaningful fantasy contributor, but the list of players who became meaningful fantasy contributors once they left Buffalo is starting to get lengthy.
The fun part is that they switched up the top line again for warmups, putting Barbashev back on the top line and Olofsson back on the third line. Again, this feels like it’s going to be a fluid situation because there’s no real need to be so cautious about where you’re lining up Ivan Barbashev and Victor Olofsson unless you’re really not sure how any of it is going to work. (oct10)
15. As much as they need Tage Thompson to retain his star form, it may be even more important for the Sabres to have Dylan Cozens living up to his $7M AAV as the second line centre. He placed for 69 and then 49 points the last two seasons, and being a 50-point centre just won't cut it on a team looking to snap a streak of missing the playoffs that spans longer than a decade.
16. With all the drafts out of the way I figured I would take a quick look at my five fantasy teams to see where they overlapped the most. I have one dynasty league, two partial keepers (six keepers in one and 11 in the other) and two full re-draft leagues. It's a good mix and sets up a good set of players with a variety of ways I have to acquire them if I want them on my team.
Across the five teams, there are no players that I own in all five, or even four of the five. However, there are a few players that I own in three separate leagues.
They are:
Jack Eichel – Kept in two leagues and drafted in one more, Eichel is someone I may be a bit higher on than most going into this year. He doesn't have as much support this season as he has had in previous years, but that hasn't stopped him yet, and he seems almost guaranteed a top-50 fantasy finish despite being drafted outside the top 50.
Roman Josi – As my favourite player he was someone I had acquired and kept in both of my partial keeper leagues. His shot volume has kept him as an elite option into his mid-30s but I do wonder if he tails off a little the year with the Preds having more mouths to feed. The upside is still so high though that I'm willing to risk a bit of a decline that likely won't be too bad even if it does show up this year. (oct9)
[Follow the link for more…]17. It seems every year, there is always a rookie that surprises at training camp and manages to make his team’s roster. Last year, it was Buffalo’s Zach Benson, and this year it’s Philadelphia’s Jett Luchanko as it was announced he made the Philadelphia Flyers roster. Whether he lasts the season or is sent down after a nine-game tryout remains to be seen, but the opportunity is there for him to grab it as long as he can gain coach John Tortorella’s trust.
Andrew Cristall, Carter Yakemchuk, Luca Cagnoni, and Brad Lambert were not as fortunate as Luchanko as they were sent down by Washington, Ottawa, San Jose, and Winnipeg, respectively.
Cristall seemed to have a great camp for the Capitals, but they are in a cap crunch and he doesn’t require waivers to be sent down, so his contract status worked against him.
Yakemchuk also stood out for Ottawa at times, but the team has six NHL defencemen and Tyler Kleven is around. Yakemchuk seems to have made a great impression and looks to have an inside track to make the team next season.
Cagnoni is another player that the team – this time San Jose – seemed to like in camp but at his age and given the state of the roster, there's not much need to rush him to the NHL right now.
Winnipeg isn’t a team that puts high-skill players in the bottom-6, so Lambert likely needed to be good enough for the second line or he wasn’t going to make the roster. He is probably going to be back this season, though. (oct8)
18. As expected, Max Pacioretty signed a one-year deal with Toronto. As a Habs fan, it kind of hurts, but it’s nice to see him get another chance after the brutal injury luck he’s had over the last couple of years. All the best to him. (oct8)
19. Yegor Sharangovich (week to week, LBI) is going to miss some time. A tough start for a guy who hit 31 goals last year and was going to be relied upon by Calgary as they start to rebuild for the future. Hopefully he’s back sooner rather than later. With Sharangovich out, Connor Zary is getting a spin on the top PP unit. (oct8)
20. The 2024-25 NHL regular season officially started last week in Europe but today is the first day of regular season games in North America. I have spent the last several Ramblings talking about my point projections, and today we’ll get to official rankings. For the point projection Ramblings, defence was talked about here and here while forwards were discussed here, here, and here. As for the rankings, I published them over on Fantasy Pros.
[Follow the link for more…]21. With the 2024-25 campaign set to kick off, Brennan Des had a fantasy question facing each team this season in his Monday Ramblings.
Anaheim Ducks
What will Anaheim’s power play look like? The Ducks split time evenly between two units last year, but that could change this season with new assistant coach Rich Clune overseeing the team’s man advantage and potentially implementing new strategies. Clune helped the Toronto Marlies’ PP jump from 13% to 22% last year. Late in the preseason, we saw Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier and Jackson LaCombe together on one unit, which suggests they’ll kick off the campaign together. Based on talent alone, that has to be classified as the top group.
Boston Bruins
Will Elias Lindholm bounce back from a lacklustre 2023-24 campaign and thrive beside David Pastrnak in Boston? I say yes, but only time will tell.
Buffalo Sabres
Can the power play bounce back? After finishing 9th in the league with a 23.4% success rate during the 22-23 campaign, the Sabres posted a shocking 16.6% last season. An improved power play will be integral to a guy like Tage Thompson rebounding from last year’s underwhelming 65-point pace. Unfortunately, Buffalo is off to a rough start after going 0/6 with the man advantage through games one and two. (oct7)
[Follow the link for more…]—
Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!
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Have a good week, folks!
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