Ramblings: Honouring Gaudreau; Selling Stefan Noesen; Colorado Goalie Outlook & More (Oct 16)

Alexander MacLean

2024-10-16

As Columbus played their first home game of the season, everyone’s heart was focused not on the game, but on a player that meant so much more – Johnny Gaudreau. The Blue Jackets honoured him with both teams wearing Gaudreau jerseys for warmups, and then saving him a spot at the opening faceoff.

Our hearts are still heavy, and he will never be forgotten here. 

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With Kaapo Kahkonen claimed by the Avalanche, we now have a bit of a goalie battle there. Alexandar Georgiev has had stretches of being an elite goalie, but how much of that has been because of the team in front of him? He has also had some very poor stretches, including playoff games and the beginning of this season. With Colorado really suffering from injuries, poor goaltending could cause this team to miss the playoffs without skater reinforcements (which should be on their way in another month or so). 

All that to say, Georgiev does not have a steady hand on the wheel. Justus Annunen has done excellent numbers across a short pro track record prior to this season, and is now competing with Kahkonen for the backup job (that could turn into more). I like Kahkonen’s odds considering how well he did last year after being treated to a better team in New Jersey, who I would consider similar in talent level to this Avalanche squad. He just needs to sort out his visa issues and actually get on the ice first. 

Georgiev is a hold for now, because no one wants to buy a tire-fire while it’s still burning. Annunen has the upper hand as the incumbent, but even despite the factors against him, I like Kahkonen as the goalie the Avs run with in the home stretch of the season this year. That is unless the end up trading for a replacement.

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Columbus has been better than many expected to this point, and a big part of that has been Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger each taking a step forward. The two combined in a short handed goal to open the game last night. 

Zach Werenski to me is the most interesting player there right now though. He has two goals and 17 shots through three games. He finished last season with 21 points in 20 games, and looks to have found a new gear offensively. At least 60 points this year would not surprise me. 

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I was heavy on Tommy Novak before the season, but it looks like the lines have already been shuffled in Nashville, flipping him and Colton Sissons as the second and third line centres. That lines up Sissons with Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault. Let’s see if he can take advantage. 

Ever since Sissons stepped up during Nashville’s Cup run one been convinced there is another level of offence there if he just got an opportunity. He’s already solid in the peripheral categories, and has LW eligibility to boot. 

Novak did score from the third line last night though, because that’s just how things work sometimes. 

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Ryan Hartman was notably on the top power play with Joel Eriksson Ek out, and scored a goal. He’s still on the third line, but maybe worth a short-term stream. That being said, Filip Gustavsson also scored a power play goal, so it doesn’t mean everything. 

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Adam Boqvist has seen most of the power play time with the top unit when he’s been healthy. Otherwise, it had fallen to Aaron Ekblad and Nate Schmidt. Boqvist has one assist in the season this far, so the leash may not be a terribly long one. 

Sam Reinhart had two more goals and four points to lead the Panthers. No Aleksander Barkov, no Matthew Tkachuk, no problem for him. 

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Logan Thompson one-upped Adin Hill in his first start of the season, winning four-to-two.

Victor Olofsson and Jack Eichel did the damage on him as the top guys stayed hot for Vegas. Unfortunately Olofsson left the game injured after twisting his left leg, and he was seen on crutches after the game. Hope fully he’s not out too long, but this could be an opportunity for one of the younger wingers to earn a bigger role.

A big part of Vegas’ success has been a healthy Mark Stone who seems whole enough to thrive for the foreseeable future through the regular season. The back issues that were supposed to lead to IR stays and load management just haven’t appeared. Let’s hope they stay that way. 

I love the New Jersey offence this year and it seems like it will be able to support an above-average amount of fantasy relevant players. Sefan Noesen appears to be one of them in the short term, but for the long term he looks like one of the biggest “sell high” opportunities around the league. 

In Carolina he was used in a third line role as a power play merchant, and in New Jersey he’s being used much the same way. Unfortunately, he’s not going to sniff the top power play here, unlike in Carolina, and New Jersey’s third line gets a lot more defensive zone starts than Carolina’s due to the difference in how Jack Hughes and Sebastian Aho‘s top lines are deployed. 

Specifically looking at Noesen’s numbers, his shooting rate is actually down – at 1.2 shots per game. His underlying percentages are all in the Halloween spirit early, as they're frighteningly unstable. The Devils are shooting 28% with Noesen on the ice, and his IPP is higher than it has ever been – for an average sized player with nearly 400 career games, that’s a clear red flag. 

Now this hot start might be the difference between him finishing at his usual 40-point-pace and instead ending up with 50. I’m going to pencil him in for about 44 points in the remaining 76 games to finish off the year. 

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Jakub Vrana really for 2024-25: One game, one goal.

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We love first goals around here. There’s many more in style for Jackson Blake.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to get in touch you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here for any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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