Analytics Advantage: Players Drivers and Fantasy Points Per Game

Stas Pupkov

2024-10-17

Welcome back to Analytics Advantage! As the 2025 NHL season unfolds, staying ahead in your fantasy league means identifying players who not only score but also dominate on the ice in terms of possession and ice time. This week, we dive deep into advanced metrics, focusing on Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG) and Time on Ice per Game (TOI/GP) to help you find key contributors who may not yet be on everyone's radar.

Beyond just points, we'll also highlight Corsi For Percentage (CF%), a stat that shows which players help their teams control the puck. A high CF% indicates players who are driving play forward, giving them more opportunities to score or assist.

In this article, I'll break down the top 30 players ranked by FPPG, focusing on three key groups: players ranked 1–10, 11–20, and 21–30. Let's get started with the most dominant players in fantasy hockey so far.

Top 10 Players by Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)

How FPPG is Calculated:

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG) is calculated by assigning point values to in-game actions:

                Goals: 6 points

                Total Assists: 4 points

Shots on Goal and Shots Blocked: 1.6 points each

                Hits: 0.6 points

FPPG is then averaged over the number of games played to reflect each player's average contribution to a fantasy lineup per game.

1. Nikita Kucherov (TBL)

FPPG: 23.40 | TOI/GP: 22.19 | CF%: 52.69%

Why He's Valuable: Kucherov's fantasy impact remains unmatched early in the year. With a league-leading FPPG of 23.40, he's converting his offensive opportunities at an elite rate. His TOI/GP of over 22 minutes ensures he's heavily involved in all phases of Tampa Bay's offense, including power plays. While his CF% of 52.69% isn't eye-popping, it still indicates that Tampa Bay controls the puck more often than not when Kucherov is on the ice. His well-rounded offensive toolkit, coupled with his consistent involvement in scoring chances, makes him indispensable to fantasy managers.

2. Mikko Rantanen (COL)

FPPG: 16.10 | TOI/GP: 22.25 | CF%: 60.94%

Why He's Valuable: Rantanen is the definition of reliability in fantasy hockey. His TOI/GP of 22.25 shows that Colorado relies on him in all critical situations, while his impressive CF% of 60.94% underlines his ability to maintain puck possession. Rantanen's balanced production—whether it's goals, assists, or shots—ensures consistent fantasy points each game. The Avalanche's dominance when Rantanen is on the ice further highlights his capacity to create and capitalize on scoring opportunities. He's a player you can set and forget in your lineup, knowing he'll deliver across all categories.

3. Filip Forsberg (NSH)

FPPG: 15.53 | TOI/GP: 20.48 | CF%: 77.40%

Why He's Valuable: Forsberg stands out for his sheer puck dominance. His CF% of 77.40% is a league-high, meaning that Nashville controls possession to an overwhelming degree whenever he's on the ice. This level of control translates directly into fantasy points, as Forsberg maximizes his opportunities in both even-strength and power play situations. With a strong TOI/GP of 20.48, he's a reliable source of fantasy points, especially for managers seeking a consistent performer. His ability to generate and sustain offensive pressure makes him a cornerstone for any fantasy team.

Players Ranked 11-20 by Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG):

1. Nathan MacKinnon (COL)

FPPG: 14.90 | TOI/GP: 22.93 | CF%: 64.25%

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Why He's Valuable: MacKinnon's fantasy performance is underpinned by his heavy usage and elite puck possession. Averaging nearly 23 minutes per game, MacKinnon is on the ice for a significant portion of Colorado's offensive drives. His 64.25% CF% shows that when he's playing, the Avalanche dominate possession, ensuring that he's in prime positions to rack up points. Whether it's creating plays, scoring, or generating shots, MacKinnon's all-around ability makes him one of the most reliable fantasy players you can have, with consistent contributions across the board.

2. Tim Stützle (OTT)

FPPG: 14.67 | TOI/GP: 20.13 | CF%: 62.71%

Why He's Valuable: Stützle's rise to prominence has been nothing short of impressive. With a FPPG of 14.67 and an above-average CF% of 62.71%, Stützle plays a key role in Ottawa's offensive schemes. His TOI/GP of just over 20 minutes means he's entrusted with driving the offense in critical situations, including power plays. Stützle's balanced offensive game—whether through scoring goals or setting up teammates—makes him an emerging star in fantasy hockey. His strong possession metrics suggest he'll continue to deliver consistent points as the year progresses.

3. Jake Sanderson (OTT)

FPPG: 14.47 | TOI/GP: 26.38 | CF%: 52.84%

Why He's Valuable: Sanderson is logging massive minutes for the Senators, with a TOI/GP of 26.38—the highest in this tier. While his CF% of 52.84% is more modest, his heavy usage means he's involved in all phases of the game, from even strength to special teams. This volume of ice time alone makes him a consistent contributor in fantasy leagues, with opportunities to block shots, take shots, and contribute to offensive plays. Sanderson is a key piece in Ottawa's defensive and offensive systems, and his FPPG of 14.47 makes him a valuable asset in deeper leagues.

Players Ranked 21-30 by Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG):

1. Thomas Chabot (OTT)

FPPG: 13.87 | TOI/GP: 23.64 | CF%: 62.67%

Why He's Valuable: Chabot is one of the most consistent fantasy defensemen, playing over 23 minutes per game and maintaining a CF% of 62.67%. This combination of high ice time and solid possession numbers means he's regularly involved in creating offensive opportunities for Ottawa. His ability to contribute across multiple categories—shots, blocks, and assists—makes him a reliable and well-rounded asset in fantasy leagues. Chabot's usage and consistency on both ends of the ice provide managers with steady point production.

2. Brayden Point (TBL)

FPPG: 13.60 | TOI/GP: 19.77 | CF%: 51.25%

Why He's Valuable: Point continues to be a strong offensive presence for Tampa Bay, with a FPPG of 13.60. Though his CF% of 51.25% is lower compared to others on this list, his offensive contributions—especially in high-pressure situations—are invaluable. With nearly 20 minutes of ice time per game, Point remains a consistent scorer, making him a solid pick for managers looking for a reliable center who can deliver points both at even strength and on the power play. Point's ability to be involved in Tampa Bay's offense keeps his fantasy value high.

3. Ross Colton (COL)

FPPG: 13.35 | TOI/GP: 18.70 | CF%: 60.12%

Why He's Valuable: Colton is emerging as a sleeper pick in fantasy hockey, with a strong CF% of 60.12% and solid production in his limited ice time of just under 19 minutes per game. Colton has been a key contributor to Colorado's strong start this year, and his ability to control the puck makes him a valuable asset for deeper fantasy leagues. Though he's not a household name, Colton's ability to generate shots and capitalize on scoring chances makes him a solid addition for managers looking to round out their rosters with upside players.

Thank you for reading! Feel free to reach out on Twitter/X – @DH_staspup for any questions, corrections, or comments. You can also ask for any player's graph or a whole set of graphs for your roster—I can post it, DM, or email. (For entire rosters, please DM an email or email me at staspup@proton.me).

2 Comments

  1. jasonkent24 2024-10-17 at 20:01

    Colorado’s strong start…they have been an absolute dumpster fire this year. . .they’re 0-4, ravaged by injury, and getting caved in every night. I had to double check to make sure this article wasn’t from last year. . .

    • forkthewendy 2024-10-18 at 06:03

      1) Nobody said COL has had a strong start.
      2) For fantasy purposes team success is irrelevant if players are producing.

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