Last week we touched on the impact of a hot October start, and in something akin to a follow up we are going to spend this week taking a look at some unlikely productive players thus far. And of course, try to determine whether we are seeing something brand new from them or if we should expect them to return to their wonton ways.

I got interested in this idea as I watched several unusual names (who we will get to in a minute) have a good game only for me to disregard them, and then have them do it again, and again, and again. But "unusual" wasn't the easiest thing to run a report for. So the plan for this week is to take everyone's production to date and compare it to their recent averages. For the most part we won't really be talking about rookies as it is hard for them to do something completely unexpected over the course of five games since we don't really have clear expectations for rookies. Plus we can rationalize everything from zero points in their first five games to consistent multi-point outings.

We also won't spend a ton of time on big names. Yes, Artemi Panarin has seven points in three games, Mark Scheifele has six points in three games, and Cale Makar has eight points in four games, but for the most part these big names players are expected to go on runs. What I am really looking for are players who haven't really done something like this before.

First up we have to get to the Boston line that started this train of thought for me. Somehow Cole Koepke, Mark Kastelic, and John Beecher are point-per-game players through five games.

Taking a look at their stats we can see strikingly similar stat lines. All of them have two goals, three assists, and have been at least five times as productive over this stretch as in their recent history. If these seasons panned out it would result in a 32-goal, 82-point season. Just as a reference point to get to 30ish goals a player who is shooting 15 percent needs to put up about 200 shots, or at least 2.4 shots per game (over all 82 games). In order to get that kind of production we would typically expect a player to be in the top six, getting at least 17 minutes of overall ice time, and usually be on the top power-play, so getting more than 50 percent of his team's share of power-play time.

Koepke is getting about 10 and a half minutes of ice time on average, no power-play time, shooting about 1.4 times per game and has a shooting percentage of 26 percent. Kastelic has a bit more time on ice up at 12 and a half minutes, and about 3 percent of the team's power-play time to date, but is shooting 0.8 times per game, and has a shooting percentage of 50 percent. Beecher has the most time on ice at 13 and a half minutes, but no power-play time, is shooting 1.2 times per game and at a rate of 33 percent. Long story short, there is nothing about their production or deployment that indicates sustainability even if they have somehow defied the odds thus far.

Looking at a few more names:

Philip Broberg is an interesting example. His time in Edmonton was not very productive. He only actually played 12 games in 2023-24, seeing about 11 and a half minutes of overall ice time. Thus far in 2024-25 he has put up a point per game. That is something most defensemen don't do so right off the bat I think we can say this isn't sustainable. But we shouldn't be too quick to write off a career season for Broberg, which is not that high of a bar. He currently has been seeing almost 19 minutes of ice time on average, getting 20 percent of the team's power play, and shooting 1.5 times per game. Those are all career highs. Will Broberg be a top line producing D? No. But if these numbers stay consistent, he should be in for a career year and maybe 25ish points. Hopefully though as a young player these numbers are increasing throughout the season.

Will Cuylle has only played three games in 2023-24 but is getting a career high 13 and a half minutes of total time on ice. Good for him, but is that enough to be fantasy relevant in most leagues? No. It puts him in much the same category as the Boston folks above.

Jacob Trouba wasn't drafted for his offense, but somehow is sitting at four points in three games. Not too much else is really different for him, well other than he doesn't have many hits to date. It's been three games and he is going to continue being your 25–35-point player who contributes peripherals.

Finally let's touch on these guys.

Maybe at last we will find some players who are in line to keep up some of this impressive production. Martin Pospisil had flashes of relevance in 2024-24, but mostly in leagues where hits are important as he only ended up with a 30-point pace. As much as he has been lining up with a sort of surging Jonathan Huberdeau, the forecast doesn't look that different. His overall time on ice is the same, he is not getting any power-play time, and he is only shooting 1.3 times per game. He and his linemates are shooting at incredible numbers and he has gotten in on every goal scored while he is on the ice. Without a bump in deployment this production looks very fleeting. So maybe he still provides value in hits leagues given he has 14 across four games, but if a manager is counting on him for 40 or more points, the signs are not yet encouraging.

Ivan Barbashev and that Vegas top line just can't be kept down. Barbashev, Mark Stone, and Jack Eichel are putting up points essentially every night. Barbashev himself has seven in four games helped along by a four-point night in the season opener. Him being featured at all in the article is a note for caution as this pace is certainly a deviation from his usual. For the past two seasons he has gotten essentially top line, or at least top-six even strength minutes, to the tune of 16-17 minutes a night overall. He has gotten 30 to 40 percent of the team's power-play time and been shooting about 1.5 times per game. With that he has managed about a 45-point pace each season.

So far this year Barbashev is getting about 16 minutes of overall ice time, 18 percent of the team's power-play time, and shooting 2.3 shots per game. The increased shot rates are good, but the decreased overall time on ice, and power-play time are definitely not. As much as these four games have been a blast, just like with Pospisil he and his linemates are shooting the lights out and that will not continue, plus Barbashev has gotten in on every goal scored while he is on the ice. If he can keep shooting maybe he bumps his pace up to 50 points, but everything else is very much in alignment with his recent 45-point seasons.

And finally, Evgeni Malkin. I don't think anyone saw 11 points in five games coming. Clearly a 180-point pace isn't going to sustain. Most of his numbers are pretty consistent with his prior four seasons where he has put up 70-85-point paces. His down year of 67 points in 2023-24 clearly had managers worried about continued decline. While there is a lot of consistency in Malkin's numbers, a big difference is the power-play production. He only had 18 points there from the top unit and already four of his 11 points have come on the power-play. He had 36 points there in 2022-23. If he adds even just 10 points to his 2023-24 power-play numbers we are looking at close to an 80-point pace. Will 180 points happen? Of course not. Is this start and an apparently functional power play still great news for Malkin managers? I think so.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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