21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles
Dobber Sports
2024-10-20
Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber
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1. As Columbus played their first home game of the season, everyone's heart was focused not on the game, but on a player that meant so much more – Johnny Gaudreau. The Blue Jackets honoured him with both teams wearing Gaudreau jerseys for warmups, and then saving him a spot at the opening faceoff. Our hearts are still heavy, and he will never be forgotten here. (oct16)
2. It's early, but… Steven Stamkos had yet to register his first point as a Nashville Predator (at time of writing). Missing a 100-assist playmaker like Nikita Kucherov might have something to do with it, but Stamkos is at least shooting the puck. With 14 shots over his first four games, Stamkos’ 3.5 SOG/GP was as high as it has been in a decade. The pucks will start to go in, but there has clearly been an adjustment period to his new team. (Stamkos scored his first of the season last night)
3. The Preds haven’t been as advertised so far, as they have not picked up a single point in five games and have the league’s worst offense (2.0 GF/GP) at the moment. Another notable name without a point after four games was Gustav Nyquist, whose value was expected to take a bit of a hit anyway after an out-of-nowhere 75-point season and the offseason acquisitions. Yet so far Nyquist has mainly skated on a line with Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly, which is a stable scoring line. Meanwhile, Stamkos has bounced around the lineup while Andrew Brunette tries to find the right linemates for him. (oct19)
4. It’s early, but… maybe Philip Broberg and the St. Louis Blues were meant to be. Broberg has begun his Blues career with points in each of his first six games. Injuries to Torey Krug and now Nick Leddy are paving the way for Broberg to contribute, and he has delivered. On top of that, time is running out on Scott Perunovich, who is now 26 years old.
This was supposed to be a make-or-break season for Broberg in Edmonton until the offer sheet, so maybe a fresh start was all he needed. Broberg definitely won’t be a point-per-game defenseman if he is averaging 19 minutes per game and is on the Blues’ second power play, like he is now. But that might be better than what he would have received with the Oilers. At this point, he might be worth taking a flier on in deeper leagues. (oct19)
5. Entering Saturday action, of all the players with at least seven points, none had as low an ice time average as Jared McCann (15:55 TOI). That means as far as ice time goes, new Seattle coach Dan Bylsma hasn’t changed things much from previous coach Dave Hakstol. New free agent pickup Chandler Stephenson was the only forward averaging at least 18 minutes per game, with only Stephenson, Matty Beniers, and Andre Burakovsky ahead of McCann in average time on ice. Same goes for the power play, where no forward was been on the ice for more than 57% of the Kraken’s power-play minutes, and nine Kraken skaters range between 40-57% of the team’s available power-play minutes. Everyone is still getting their turn in Seattle. (oct19)
6. This post is from Thursday evening – you get the idea:
Dan Hopper @DanHoppOPS: NHL average save percentage coming into tonight was .896, lowest since the early ’90s; Detroit got .737 from their starter tonight, Columbus-Buffalo was .833-.760, Tampa-Vegas was .880-.840. Shooters are scoring at a crazy rate so far, making a LOT of goalies look bad
If this keeps up, Frozen Tools will need to redefine what a Really Bad Start is. Currently it is games with a save percentage below .850. This is a Pittsburgh guy posting this, so he may also be trying to point out that Tristan Jarry‘s start really isn’t that bad when other goalies around the league are clearly struggling.
Sticking with Pittsburgh goalies, Joel Blomqvist was given the nod on Friday. He allowed four goals on 38 shots in a 4-1 loss to Carolina. The Penguins as a team are allowing an average of four goals per game, so starting Blomqvist isn’t a much better idea than starting Jarry at the moment. The Pens went into Friday averaging five goals per game over their last four games, so they have at least stayed competitive by scoring. (oct19)
7. Jesse Puljujarvi‘s preseason success has carried over to the regular season. With an assist on Friday, Puljujarvi has points in four consecutive games. I’d call it a streak, but it was interrupted by a healthy scratch last Saturday. At age 26, Pool Party may be figuring out how to stick around in the NHL post-prospect hype. He isn’t riding shotgun with the Penguins’ top players – rather, he has mainly been on a line with Lars Eller with PP2 deployment. (oct19)
8. If Cole Perfetti was your Friday streamer, you cashed in big. Perfetti filled the statsheet on Friday: 2 G, 2 A, +4, 2 PPG, 5 SOG. The points were his first of the season in his fourth game. With the Jets playing again on light night Sunday, you could look to him as a potential streamer again. He’s only 12 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues. Since he averages only 13-14 minutes per game, Perfetti shouldn’t be considered a player to be added in all leagues, although he should definitely be rostered in keeper leagues.
9. The line of Perfetti, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Vladislav Namestnikov took a bite out of the Sharks in that Friday game. Ehlers finished with two goals and an assist, while Namestnikov chipped in a goal and three assists. One of Ehlers’ goals was on the power play… the top power play. Imagine that after all these years. In a contract year, could we finally see Ehlers reach his full potential? His career high in power-play points is 13, but he would have a chance to improve on that if he can stay on PP1. (oct19)
10. Ross Colton has four goals on the season. In addition, Colton has averaged 3.6 SOG/GP in five games, which is double his average from last season. Colton’s ice time has also exploded, as he is averaging 19 minutes per game and skated nearly 22 minutes on Friday. Injuries to other key players have Colton on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen (3 A on Friday), which makes Colton worth adding. He’s shot up to being 31 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues, so you’ll need to grab him quickly. I can’t see Colton being on this line forever, so you might want to consider dropping him when the injured Avalanche forwards start returning. (oct19)
11. The Stars have made a long-term commitment to Jake Oettinger, signing him to an eight-year, $66 million contract. That term of eight years and cap hit of $8.25 million is exactly the same as the contract that Jeremy Swayman recently signed, although Oettinger’s contract is set to begin next season. Oettinger and Swayman are easy goalies to compare because they are the same age (25) and should be their teams’ long-term starting goalies while their teams are in their contention windows. (oct18)
12. Is it time to be worried about Elias Pettersson? Entering Saturday, Pettersson had just one assist and a combined six shots in his first four games. Things could change very quickly for a player of his talent level, but his late-season slowdown (4 G in last 18 GP) and underwhelming playoff performance (1 G and 6 PTS in 13 GP) have carried into the regular season. He might be more focused defensively, as his hit and blocked shot totals both match his shot total. He’s worth a buy-low attempt, but keep in mind that he isn’t at the top of his game right now. Not sure whether that’s due to a nagging injury or just a lack of confidence.
This is also concerning, from Sportsnet Stats: Elias Petterson has skated over 440 minutes at even strength since his last EV goal. (oct18)
13. If you were thinking Artemi Panarin would regress after his 120-point season, I’m here to tell you he is picking up right where he left off. Panarin recorded a hat trick and an assist on Thursday, with all but one of the goals on the power play. Entering Saturday, Panarin had multiple points in each of his first four games, which was enough to tie him with fellow Russian Evgeni Malkin for the league scoring lead at 11 points (at time of writing). Panarin had played one fewer game than Malkin as well. (oct18)
14. You could say the same for Nikita Kucherov after his 144-point season. With a pair of goals on Thursday, Kucherov has scored goals in each of his three games, giving him a league-leading six goals (also at time of writing). Kuch hasn’t been shy about shooting the puck either, as he has taken at least five shots in each of his three games. (oct18)
15. Sometimes we say a player’s hot production isn’t sustainable because he doesn’t have the right linemates. But what if a productive run in the bottom 6 leads to in an opportunity on the top line? That’s what happened to Paul Cotter, who was promoted to the Devils’ top line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt on Thursday. Cotter scored another goal on Thursday, giving him five goals in his first seven games. He will cool down in the goal-scoring department no matter who the linemates are. However, a pickup (18% Yahoo/47% Fantrax) is more justified if he is on a scoring line. Especially if your league also counts hits. Cotter has 20 of them this season and over 200 last season. (oct18)
16. According to Frank Seravalli, Sean Durzi is expected to be sidelined for 4-5 months, as he will undergo surgery. Durzi was injured after taking a hit in a Monday game against New Jersey. That timeline would result in Durzi returning to the lineup sometime in February or March, so this would be a lengthy absence. Utah is already without John Marino, so its blueline is already dealing with multiple injuries. Expect Juuso Valimaki to see more power-play time, which could breathe some life into his fantasy value. (oct18)
17. The New York Rangers welcomed Ryan Lindgren back to practice this week. The team made it clear there is still no direct timeline for his return, but that he’s cleared and practicing in full is a good sign. He doesn’t have a ton of fantasy relevance himself, but K’Andre Miller had been skating over 24 minutes a game in Lindgren’s absence. That should go back down whenever Lindgren returns. (oct17)
18. Aside from Dylan Larkin, and maybe Patrick Kane, there shouldn’t be an assumption that any Detroit skater is a lock for the top power play unit. Considering their power play has been something like a 65-35 split to start the season, per Frozen Tools, that is important to keep in mind if you have Moritz Seider or Alex DeBrincat on your fantasy roster. (oct17)
19. Erik Brannstrom was recalled by the Canucks. Brannstrom was traded to the Canucks by Colorado but was left off the NHL roster. Given that Vancouver was winless in three games at time of writing and had generated fewer shots per minute than any team not named Utah (as of Wednesday afternoon), that they’re brining up a puck-moving blueliner makes sense. Not sure he has much fantasy value unless he somehow snags the PP2 role, but interested to see how he can impact Vancouver’s ability to generate offence. (oct17)
20. With Kaapo Kahkonen claimed by the Avalanche, we now have a bit of a goalie battle there. Alexandar Georgiev has had stretches of being an elite goalie, but how much of that has been because of the team in front of him? He has also had some very poor stretches, including playoff games and the beginning of this season. With Colorado really suffering from injuries, poor goaltending could cause this team to miss the playoffs without skater reinforcements (which should be on their way in another month or so).
All that to say, Georgiev does not have a steady hand on the wheel. Justus Annunen has done excellent numbers across a short pro track record prior to this season, and is now competing with Kahkonen for the backup job (that could turn into more). I like Kahkonen's odds considering how well he did last year after being treated to a better team in New Jersey, who I would consider similar in talent level to this Avalanche squad. He just needs to sort out his visa issues and actually get on the ice first.
Georgiev is a hold for now, because no one wants to buy a tire-fire while it's still burning. Annunen has the upper hand as the incumbent, but even despite the factors against him, I like Kahkonen as the goalie the Avs run with in the home stretch of the season this year. That is unless the end up trading for a replacement. (oct16)
21. I love the New Jersey offence this year and it seems like it will be able to support an above-average amount of fantasy relevant players. Sefan Noesen appears to be one of them in the short term, but for the long term he looks like one of the biggest "sell high" opportunities around the league.
In Carolina, he was used in a third line role as a power play merchant, and in New Jersey he's being used much the same way. Unfortunately, he's not going to sniff the top power play here, unlike in Carolina, and New Jersey's third line gets a lot more defensive zone starts than Carolina's due to the difference in how Jack Hughes and Sebastian Aho's top lines are deployed.
Specifically looking at Noesen's numbers (at time of writing), his shooting rate was actually down – at 1.2 shots per game. His underlying percentages were all in the Halloween spirit early; frighteningly unstable. The Devils were shooting 28% with Noesen on the ice, and his IPP was higher than it has ever been – for an average-sized player with nearly 400 career games, that's a clear red flag.
Now this hot start might be the difference between him finishing at his usual 40-point-pace and instead ending up with 50. I'm going to pencil him in for about 44 points in the remaining 76 games to finish off the year. (oct16)
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