Ramblings: Ross Goal-ton; Jarry & Bunting Benched; Annunen & Dostal Excel; Adding Frost, Noesen & OEL (Oct 21)
Brennan Des
2024-10-21
With a 6-3 victory over Pittsburgh, Winnipeg remains the only undefeated team this season, sporting a 5-0 record. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele have been integral to the Jets' success, scoring on Sunday and finding the scoresheet in every game thus far. Both players are riding five-game point streaks.
Nikolaj Ehlers and his deft playmaking took center stage Sunday as he picked up two brilliant primary assists. I know it's a big deal that he's finally seeing top unit power-play time this year, but given his high-end offensive skill, it's a travesty that he's still averaging less than 14 minutes per game. He now has seven points through five outings, raising his stock ahead of free agency at the end of this season.
Sidelined with a lower-body injury to start the year, Alex Nedeljkovic made his season debut against the Jets and stopped 31 of the 36 shots he faced. Allowing five goals would be a bad game for most netminders, but Ned gave his team a chance to win and was largely let down by a Penguins' defense that too easily surrendered that prime net-front real estate. Unfortunately, that's likely to be a trend this season as Pittsburgh has been below average defensively for some time now.
A lot is made about how Ned stole the starting job in Pittsburgh down the stretch last year, but his numbers – both traditional and advanced – weren't that good. Positive perceptions of Nedeljkovic are likely based in an excellent rookie campaign with Carolina back in 2020-21, but that was over a small sample of 23 games. We haven't seen him perform close to that level in recent years. I don't mean to write off Nedeljkovic for the rest of the season, but I would caution those running to grab him as a result of Jarry's struggles. Speaking of which…
After an abysmal start that's seen him surrender 12 goals on 73 shots over seven periods of play, Tristan Jarry was scratched for Sunday's joust with the Jets, with Joel Blomqvist playing backup to Nedeljkovic. A large portion of goaltending is mental, and with Jarry mired in a slump that dates back to the second half of last season, a reset is necessary.
Speaking of healthy scratches, Michael Bunting was kept out of Sunday's game against the Jets after posting just one point in his first six appearances. It's surprising to see the offense dry up this much for Bunting after he posted 19 points in his first 21 games with Pittsburgh following last year's trade deadline deal. Bunting's even-strength linemates – Evgeni Malkin and Rickard Rakell – haven't changed, but his power-play role has dropped drastically with Kris Letang back on the top unit this season. With Bunting scratched, Jesse Puljujarvi got a well-deserved promotion to line two beside Malkin and Rakell. Puljujarvi picked up an assist on Sunday, extending his point streak to five games.
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After a couple of lacklustre appearances in relief, Justus Annunen got his first start of the season on Sunday. Sure, it was against the lowly Sharks, but Annunen played well, stopping 25 of the 26 shots he faced. The Avs have an interesting decision to make ahead of Tuesday's clash with the Kraken. Do they run with the hot hand, get their most proven commodity back on track, or see what the new guy can do?
With Kaapo Kahkonen finally clear of immigration, the Avs now have three options in net. I'd say Alexandar Georgiev is still the frontrunner as he's the only one with a large sample of individual excellence under his belt (i.e., the 22-23 campaign when he posted 17 goals saved above expected). However, Kahkonen has had strong stints, and Colorado will be the best team he's played behind, so there's potential for him to go on a run here. Annunen was also solid in a small sample last year and could continue earning starts if he can build off momentum from Sunday's win. The way I see it, the Avs are a good team, they just need their goalie to not be bad. Whichever of these netminders can be average (or better) consistently should be able to carve out a significant role for themselves this year. With Georgiev's fantasy stock likely at an all-time low after his awful start to the campaign, you may want to see if he's available at a discount. The team in front of him is very good, so there's a decent chance they'll be able to resuscitate him as the season progresses – especially as players return from injury. Georgiev is just one season removed from consistent, high-end play, so I imagine he'll have a longer leash than Annunen or Kahkonen.
Given Colorado's long list of injuries, it's tempting to conclude the current roster simply isn't good enough, and that's why the goaltending has struggled so much. However, looking at expected goals, both the team's offense and defense has performed well. There is one area that the team can improve though – the penalty kill. The Avs ranked 12th in the league last year, killing roughly 80% of the penalties they took. Early this season, their PK is clicking at 68% and ranks 29th in the league. Obviously, the sample is still small, but this might also be where some of those aforementioned injuries are taking a toll. Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen have all missed significant time this season after playing big PK roles last year. As the campaign progresses and these key players return, expect the PK to improve and goaltenders to be more supported when down a man.
I discussed Ross Colton as a solid streaming option in last week's article, but man oh man has he taken off since. After scoring two goals on Sunday, Colton jumped into a tie for second in the league's goal-scoring race. Sure, the sample is small, but he's done an outstanding job at the bumper position of Colorado's power play. He's not afraid to put pucks on net and that's why he has three power-play goals already. Honestly, given how well Colton has played in that bumper spot, I think he holds onto this PP1 role even when Jonathan Drouin returns to the lineup. Maybe Drouin eventually returns to the top unit if the current group falters, but it seems foolish to mess with something that's working so well right now. Drouin just doesn't have the same willingness to pull the trigger that Colton does.
With three points on Sunday, Cale Makar jumps into a three-way tie with Artemi Panarin and Sam Reinhart for the league scoring race. Makar has been critical of his own defensive play this year, but his offensive production remains spectacular. 12 points in six games as a defenseman. Outrageous.
Since San Jose is a bad team, fantasy managers might be hesitant to roster any Sharks in fear of tanking plus/minus. However, some of these players have shown incredible category coverage that comfortably outweighs any plus/minus concerns. Mikael Granlund is a great example of this. His assist on Sunday gives him six points in six outings, with half of those points tallied on the power play. As a nice supplement to that offense, he's racked up three shots and ~10 faceoff wins per game. Guys like Granlund, Tyler Toffoli and William Eklund are solid fantasy options but remain criminally undervalued because they play for a bad team.
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24-year-old Lukas Dostal continued his early-season heroics in start number four, stopping 34 of the 36 shots LA threw at him. Fantasy-wise, I think Dostal is a lot like Sam Montembeault in Montreal. Both are younger goalies with impressive individual talent, playing on developing teams who aren't quite there defensively. This helps both netminders rack up a lot of saves, but wins will be much harder to come by. Given the similarities between the two, it surprises me that Montembeault is owned in 71% of Yahoo Leagues while Dostal is rostered in just 35%. Perhaps some of that is due to Montembeault getting more recognition in the media, but also because John Gibson will be returning from injury soon, so there's fear he'll take starts away from Dostal. Regardless, given Gibson's injury history and shaky play over the past five years, Dostal should still be able to provide strong fantasy value for the rest of the season.
After going 0 for 3 with the man advantage on Sunday, Anaheim is now 0 for 17 on the power play this season. Don't be surprised to see the team tinker with combinations until they find something that works. The Ducks have a lot of young scoring talent, they just need to find the right fits and give everyone time to develop chemistry.
After posting an assist on Sunday, Troy Terry leads the Ducks with four points through five games. Over the past three seasons he's paced for 73, 71, and 58 points. It's shocking that he's currently rostered in just 20% of Yahoo Leagues.
Alex Laferriere started the season on LA's top line beside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, but he's been bumped down to line three beside Warren Foegele and Alex Turcotte over these past two games. The demotion hasn't affected his production as he's scored in both games since. Regardless, considering his high shooting percentages and limited ice time, I'd be looking to sell high if possible.
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Here are a few players worth adding to your roster this week:
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D) – Yahoo: 38% Rostered
The 33-year-old blueliner has had a strong start to his tenure in Toronto, prompting an unexpected promotion to PP1 – where he's spent the past three games. Although he's still looking for his first power-play point, OEL already has four at even-strength. He's been especially valuable in leagues that track shots on net, racking up 3.4 per game, which currently ranks sixth among all defensemen. Toronto is one of five teams that play a league-leading four games this week, so now is a great time to get Ekman-Larsson on your roster.
Stefan Noesen (LW/RW) – Yahoo: 14% Rostered
If you're in a deeper league and in need of some hits and offense this week, Noesen could be your guy. He's been skating on New Jersey's top power-play unit for the past three games – exposed to top-end scoring talents in Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and Dougie Hamilton. Despite skating on the third line and seeing just 13 minutes a night, Noesen holds a point-per game rate through eight games and has been a physical force early on, sitting 15th in the league with 19 hits. He won't be able to maintain this scoring pace all year, but with four games over the next six days, he's a great short-term streamer.
Morgan Frost (C) – Yahoo: 5% Rostered
The 25-year-old center is averaging roughly 18 minutes a game this season, a significant jump from the ~16 minutes he'd averaged in recent years. Centering rookie sensation Matvei Michkov at both even strength and on the power-play puts Frost in a prime position to produce this year. His share of power-play time is up from 49% to 61%, and he already has 3 PPPs after just five games. That's a sizeable step up from the 11 PPPs he posted through 71 outings last year. So not only is Frost benefitting from an improved unit now that Michkov is in the mix, but he's also getting more opportunity. He's also shooting the puck more than he has in years past, averaging 3.2 shots per game after hovering around 1.9 previously. Frost's center-only status would usually be a pain to integrate into your fantasy lineup, but that's less of a problem this week, with two of Philly's four games scheduled on light nights.
Philip Broberg (D) – Yahoo: 17% Rostered
Just as we all suspected, the longest active point streak right now (tied with Makar and MacKinnon) belongs to a defenseman who averaged just 12 minutes of ice time through 12 games last year. Broberg's first year with St. Louis is off to a dream start as he's recorded a point in each of his first six games as a Blue. He's seeing much opportunity than ever before, averaging nearly 20 minutes a night. Considering he's just 23 years old with less than 100 NHL games under his belt, it's hard to write off this early-season success as unsustainable; we haven't seen enough of him to form concrete expectations just yet. I don't mean to suggest he's going to maintain a point-per-game rate, but if this strong play turns into a top unit power-play role, his offensive ceiling may be higher than we originally thought. Justin Faulk, who's currently quarterbacking PP1, doesn't have the illustrious power-play track record that would warrant patience during prolonged struggles. In fact, this is Faulk's first time seeing a majority share of PP time over six years with the Blues. St. Louis currently sits 23rd in the league with a 15.4% power play success rate. If they continue to flounder, I think it's fair to expect a shakeup, and Broberg certainly seems deserving of an expanded role.
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Thanks for reading! If you ever have any fantasy hockey questions, follow me on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza and shoot me a message!