The Wild West – Early Observations in the West

Grant Campbell

2024-10-21

Most teams have now played between four and six games in 2024-25 and we might be able to glean an idea of how each team is deploying their lineup and what players are off to good starts and what players are struggling.

Anaheim Ducks

Cutter Gauthier (5-0-0-0) and Alex Killorn (5-0-0-0) have both gotten off to disappointing starts to their season. Gauthier is expected to be among the better of the rookies in the NHL, while Killorn is signed for three more years at $6.25 million AAV. They are both getting ample ice time and should come around sooner than later.

It looks like Pavel Mintyukov (4-2-0-2) should get every opportunity for top minutes as he has averaged a team leading 22:29 after four games. He missed Sunday's game with an illness.

Olen Zellweger (4-0-1-1) appears to be easing into the lineup as he has averaged 17:00 per game and 36.6% on the power play. He was a healthy scratch for one game. Look for him to continue seeing a sheltered role with time on the power play.

Lukas Dostal (2-1-1) has been excellent in his four starts with a 93.1 save percentage and a Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) of 3.97. John Gibson is out for a few more weeks and just a reminder that he is signed for three more years at $6.4 million AAV.

Calgary Flames

The Flames have been led by Rasmus Andersson (5-2-4-6) to start 2024-25. He has 19 blocks and has averaged 23:30 per night.

They have had excellent starts from some of their young players in Martin Pospisil (5-1-4-5), Connor Zary (5-2-3-5), Matt Coronato (3-2-0-2) and even Justin Kirkland (4-1-1-2). Pospisil leads the team with 17 hits, while Kirkland has posted 12. Coronato is forcing his way into the lineup but will need to produce to stay.

Newcomer Anthony Mantha (5-2-2-4) has had a good start to his stay in Calgary and has started on the second power play unit.

Samuel Honzek (4-0-0-0) has struggled to find his place in the NHL, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him sent to the AHL sooner than later.

I'm surprised that Tyson Barrie (2-0-0-0) has not found a regular spot in the lineup after five games. He hasn't done much in his two games to warrant more.

Dustin Wolf (2-0-0) and Dan Vladar (2-0-1) have split the crease to date with Wolf (94.4%) outplaying Vladar (89.2%) a little so far. I'd expect a 50/50 split going forward with Wolf perhaps stretching that out to 60/40 eventually if he continues to play well. 

Chicago Blackhawks

Connor Bedard (6-1-6-7), Seth Jones (6-1-5-6) and Teuvo Teravainen (6-3-4-7) have had good starts to the campaign and have 12 power play points between them. These three should be the nucleus of the first unit of the power play for much of the season if healthy.

It wasn't encouraging to see Lukas Reichel (2-0-2-2) sit for the first four games of the year, but it was good to see him get two assists in the second game he dressed. He has only averaged 8:26 per game with no power play time, so temper your hopes a little.

Owners of Taylor Hall (6-1-1-2), Tyler Bertuzzi (6-1-0-1), Andreas Athanasiou (4-0-0-0) and Philipp Kurashev (6-1-0-1) are perhaps worried after such slow starts. Hall has 15 SOG but is on the second unit of the power play, while Bertuzzi is on the first unit (for now). Athanasiou has only averaged 9:33 per game with no PP time, while Kurashev appears to have lost whatever offensive role he had in 2023-24 for now. 

Ilya Mikheyev (6-0-0-0) has had one goal in his past 55 games and it appears that he might never score again.

Petr Mrazek (2-2-0) has started four games to Arvid Soderblom getting two (0-1-1). I'd expect Mrazek (90.1%) to continue to get 60 to 65 percent of the starts over Soderblom (91.1) unless he completely falters.

Colorado Avalanche

While Colorado has stumbled to a 2-4-0 start to 2024-25, their big three in Nathan MacKinnon (6-2-9-11), Mikko Rantanen (6-4-7-11) and Cale Makar (6-2-10-12) have continued to produce.

The Avalanche have some unexpected goal production from Ross Colton (6-6-1-7) and Casey Mittelstadt (6-4-1-5).

After that, things dried up immensely with just three goals from any other player in their lineup (Miles Wood, Joel Kiviranta and Calum Ritchie with one each). 

Logan O'Connor (6-0-0-0), Nikolai Kovalenko (6-0-1-1) and the Avalanche goaltending have really struggled out of the gates. Alexandar Georgiev (1-3-0) has a save percentage of 81.1 and a GSAA of negative 9.72 while Justus Annunen (1-1-0) is at 88.4% and negative 0.83.

Dallas Stars

With seven points in his first six games, Logan Stankoven (6-0-7-7) has strengthened his claim as a front-runner for the Calder Trophy in 2024-25. He has had 14 SOG in six games, so the goals should come as well.

The Dallas defense has a combined two assists (both by Thomas Harley), between all their defenders in 36 individual games played. Miro Heiskanen (6-0-0-0), Esa Lindell (6-0-0-0), Ilya Lyubushkin (6-0-0-0) and Nils Lundkvist (6-0-0-0) haven't produced so far.

Jake Oettinger (4-0-0) has a save percentage of 95.3 and a GSAA of 6.32 while new backup Casey DeSmith (1-1-0) is at 94.1 and 1.95 for the same. I'd expect a 65/70 percent split for Oettinger, but if DeSmith can play slightly above average it might reduce the starts for Oettinger to 60/40.

Edmonton Oilers

Connor McDavid (6-1-5-6) and Leon Draisaitl (6-2-3-5) have had slow starts but should surely turn it up a notch much like they did in 2023-24.

Jeff Skinner (6-2-2-4) leads the team in SOG with 21 with just 17.7% of power play time.

The early concerns lie with Evan Bouchard (6-1-0-1), Adam Henrique (6-1-0-1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6-0-2-2), Zach Hyman (6-0-0-0) and Viktor Arvidsson (6-0-0-0).

Bouchard, Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman should turn things around when the power play starts to produce, but is there a situation where Skinner replaces either Nugent-Hopkins or Hyman if that doesn't happen sooner than later? Henrique and Arvidsson should both be good for 20-25 goals and 45-55 points in 2024-25 if healthy, but this start makes you question that a little.

Vasily Podkolzin (6-0-0-0) leads all Oilers with 17 hits, but has just four SOG and is averaging 10:34 per game. He will need to chip in offensively now and again, or he's a bubble player in the NHL at this point.

Stuart Skinner (1-3-0) and Calvin Pickard (1-1-0) have both struggled with 85.1 and 84.9 save percentages respectively and GSAAs of negative 4.88 and 2.86. Neither is grabbing hold of the crease, but Skinner went through a similar spell in 2023-24 at the beginning and finished 36-16-5.

Los Angeles Kings

Anze Kopitar (6-3-5-8) continues to lead this Kings team on and off the ice at the age of 37.

Two younger players emerging and doing well are Alex Laferriere (6-4-1-5) and Brandt Clarke (6-0-4-4).

Laferriere has seen time on the first unit of the PP (57.7%) and has seen his ice time increase from 13:13 in 2023-24 to 15:32 so far.

Clarke has also seen time on the first unit (55.3%) and has three PP assists to show for it already, which should help him stay there. He's averaged 17:12 per night, so the Kings are protecting him a little at even strength.

Vladislav Gavrikov (6-0-3-3) has been the beneficiary of increased ice time with Drew Doughty being out as he is averaging 24:18 per game.

Early production concerns might center around Trevor Moore (6-1-0-1), Phillip Danault (6-0-2-2) and Quinton Byfield (6-0-3-3).

Darcy Kuemper (1-0-2) and David Rittich (2-1-0) have both been just slightly below average in the first six games. Kuemper has a save percentage of 88.9 and a GSAA of negative 1.4 while Rittich clocks in at 89.3 and negative 0.57. Both will need to be significantly better if this team has any chance to make the playoffs.

Minnesota Wild

Kirill Kaprizov (5-2-6-8) has had a good start to 2024-25 along with Matt Boldy (5-2-4-6), Marco Rossi (5-2-3-5) and Mats Zuccarello (5-3-2-5).

In 2023-24, Rossi potted his fifth point in his 10th game of the year. This could be a breakout for him.

Brock Faber (5-0-3-3) has averaged 26:06 per game and plays 68.4% on the power play and 54.6% shorthanded. If Faber can duplicate his 2023-24, it will be a great 2024-25 for him. He is a hero to every bespectacled person out there.

Filip Gustavsson (3-0-1) struggled in 2023-24 after a bit of a breakout in 2022-23. He has a save percentage of 95.0 and a GSAA of 5.54 in four games. Marc-Andre Fleury (0-0-1) has had just the one start and made 34 saves on 38 shots on goal in an overtime loss against Seattle.

Nashville Predators

Steven Stamkos (5-1-0-1) hasn't had the start he would have liked with Nashville. He has had 20 SOG, so the goals should come sooner than later. 

Dante Fabbro (4-0-0-0) was a healthy scratch for one game and has averaged just 13:29 in his other four games. I think his time in Nashville is coming to an end.

Other concerning starts are with Gustav Nyquist (5-0-1-1), Colton Sissons (5-0-0-0) and Philip Tomasino (4-0-0-0). I think most of us knew that Nyquist wouldn't get back to 75 points in 81 games, but could 50 points even be a stretch?

Sissons has started the year at minus eight in five games. He hasn't had a season worse than minus six in his 10 prior years in the NHL.

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I had hopes for Tomasino having an offensive role on this team, but the additions of Stamkos and Marchessault should have been a clue that it would be extremely difficult for him to play in the top six. He might need a start somewhere else as well.

The Predators are winless in their first five games and goaltending hasn't been disastrous, but Juuse Saros (0-4-0) and Scott Wedgewood (0-1-0) have both been below average. Saros has a save percentage of 87.5 and a GSAA of negative 3.14 while Wedgewood had an 80.0 save percentage and a GSAA of negative 2.06 in his one game.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have improved over 2023-24, but it won't be nearly enough to keep them out of the bottom five in 2024-25. Macklin Celebrini (1-1-1-2), Mikael Granlund (6-0-6-6), Tyler Toffoli (6-4-3-7), William Eklund (5-1-3-4) and Fabian Zetterlund (6-3-0-3) should all help to bring up their overall goals for.

Celebrini has missed the past five games and could be out of the lineup for another one to three weeks.

Some early concerns are for Alexander Wennberg (6-0-0-0), Will Smith (5-0-0-0) and Henry Thrun (6-0-0-0).

Wennberg was signed as a free agent at $5 million AAV for two years and was a bit of a puzzling addition to this roster.

Smith might get a few more games with the Sharks, but I think it's become evident he needs a stretch in the AHL for perhaps 10-20 games at the very least.

Thrun averaged over 20 minutes per game in the 53 games he saw in 2023-24. After six games this year, he has averaged just 16:36. He will need to improve his game to stay in the NHL.

In my mind, Vitek Vanecek (0-3-0) and Mackenzie Blackwood (0-1-2) are both placeholders until the team thinks Yaroslav Askarov is ready for full-time NHL duties. Vanecek and Blackwood will more than likely split the role 50/50 in the meantime.

Askarov has had back-to-back shutouts in his only two starts in the AHL. The time could be sooner than later.

Seattle Kraken

The Kraken have had great starts from Jared McCann (6-3-5-8), Brandon Montour (6-1-3-4) and Jordan Eberle (6-5-2-7).

Vince Dunn (4-1-2-3) missed two games with an injury and Ryker Evans (6-1-3-4) has benefitted with some power play time in Dunn's absence.

Matty Beniers (6-0-1-1) had a terrible start to 2023-24 where he had just a goal and six assists after 17 games. He doesn't want to duplicate that in 2024-25 but he isn't helping things any.

Shane Wright (6-1-1-2) has had a solid enough start to his rookie year and should maintain himself in the lineup if he plays as he has. He will need to improve his faceoff percentage and generate a little more offense in time.

Joey Daccord (3-0-0) has lived up to his new contract so far and has had a perfect record to go along with a 91.4 save percentage and a GSAA of 1.02. Philipp Grubauer (1-2-0) has scuffled a little with a save percentage of 87.7 and a GSAA of negative 1.92. Daccord should get 50-55 starts in 2024-25 if healthy. Grubauer has become a very expensive backup.

St. Louis Blues

Philip Broberg (6-1-5-6) has had a great start in St. Louis. He's averaged 19:42 per night and has played on the second unit of the PP. It's unlikely that he'll continue his current production, but he's certainly elevated his game to being in the top-four. The Oilers could surely use this player on their roster.

I had reservations about Jake Neighbours (6-2-1-3) continuing his time on the first unit of the power play from 2023-24 but he has been a fixture to begin after six games. The Blues have scored just two PPGs in six games, so Neighbours could be the first change outside of the quarterback.

Could we have a goalie controversy in St. Louis after six games? Joel Hofer (3-0-0) has a save percentage of 93.2 and a GSAA of 2.99. Jordan Binnington (1-2-0) has a save percentage of 89.5 and a GSAA of negative 0.66. If this were Vancouver, Hofer would be crowned the starter by the media and fans already. I think Hofer has to put this together for 12-15 games before it is even a discussion. Binnington will need to struggle a little more than he has as well.

Utah Hockey Club

The move to Utah from Phoenix has resulted in an offensive outburst for some of their players to begin 2024-25.

Clayton Keller (6-4-4-8), Nick Schmaltz (6-0-7-7), Dylan Guenther (6-5-1-6), Logan Cooley (6-0-6-6) and Barrett Hayton (6-4-2-6) all have at least a point per game after six games.

Michael Kesselring (6-2-2-4) and Mikhail Sergachev (6-0-4-4) currently lead Utah defenders in points. Kesselring is unlikely to stay there, but he's established himself in the top-four at the moment.

Josh Doan (6-1-1-2) has fallen back to a production level that is perhaps more in line with where he is in his progression. 

Juuso Valimaki (6-0-0-0) is still averaging 19:46 per game but any hope of turning into a 35-40 point defender is all but gone at 26 years of age now. 

Michael Carcone (3-0-0-0) was a feel-good story in 2023-24 as he potted 21 goals in 74 games. He's having trouble staying in the lineup as a regular in 2024-25 and might struggle to stay in the NHL.

Utah have outscored some of their goaltending issues as Connor Ingram (4-0-1) has a save percentage of 88.2 and a GSAA of negative 3.03, Karel Vejmelka (0-1-0) has played just the one game and let in three goals on 36 SOG.

Vancouver Canucks

Elias Pettersson (5-0-2-2) is probably one of the bigger concerns of Vancouver fans early on. He makes $11.6 million AAV and the pressure is on even more now. He needs to be a top-20 forward every year of that contract.

Filip Hronek (5-0-1-1) might be the next player the Vancouver fans focus on as he now makes $7.3 million AAV. He might have raised the bar too high in Vancouver as he had 36 points in his first 43 games of 2023-24 but has faltered with just 13 in his last 43.

Kiefer Sherwood (5-1-1-2) leads the Canucks and the NHL with 30 hits. If Sherwood can duplicate his 10 goals, 17 assists and 234 hits from 2023-24, the Canucks should be very happy.

Kevin Lankinen (2-0-1) appears to have emerged as the starter in Thatcher Demko's absence. We still don't know when Demko might be back, but Lankinen has been solid in his first three games as a Canuck. He has a 95.3 save percentage and a GSAA of 4.25. Arturs Silovs (0-1-1) has clearly struggled in his two games and has a 83.0 save percentage and GSAA of negative 3.86. Depending on the stamina of Lankinen, they might have to lean on him for a 65/35 split until Demko is back.

Vegas Golden Knights

Vegas has had great starts from Jack Eichel (6-2-8-10), Mark Stone (6-2-7-9), Shea Theodore (6-1-6-7) and Ivan Barbashev (6-4-4-8).

Theodore is in the last year of his contract and could be an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2024-25.

Barbashev has a career-high of 26 goals and 34 assists and has a chance to surpass those totals from 2021-22.

Victor Olofsson (4-3-0-3) had a great start to his Vegas tenure before missing the past two games with a lower body injury. Olofsson is a quiet addition to the Golden Knights lineup who has had 20 goals or more three times and has a career high of 28 goals.

Tomas Hertl (6-1-2-3) has six years remaining at $8.137 million AAV. He was injured when he came to Vegas from San Jose at the end of 2023-24, but he is healthy now. He has played 19 games in the Vegas uniform (including playoffs) and has just four goals and four assists.

Alexander Holtz (6-0-0-0) has been a little disappointing so far in Vegas. He does have 10 SOG and has averaged 12:55 per game, but he has produced very little. He could play himself into a healthy scratch sooner than later.

Adin Hill (2-2-0) is getting outplayed by Ilya Samsonov (1-0-1) after the first six games. Hill deserves a bit of leash, but an 85.1 save percentage and a GSAA of negative 5.20 won't save him for long. Samsonov has a 93.1 save percentage after two games.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are being led by their usual suspects, Mark Scheifele (5-5-3-8), Josh Morrissey (5-1-6-7), Kyle Connor (5-4-1-5) and Nikolaj Ehlers (5-2-5-7). The Jets will need all four of these players healthy and on similar paces if they hope to make the playoffs.

Cole Perfetti (5-2-2-4) has quickly silenced some critics with a good start. This type of play will keep him in the lineup for good.

Connor Hellebuyck (4-0-0) is the most consistent NHL goalie since 2017-18.  He's had back-to-back 37 wins coming into 2024-25 and looks on track once again.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15

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