Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a Canadian defenseman

CLUE #2 – I had a stellar juniors career, plus was a three time gold medalist in international play by the time I was 18 years old

CLUE #3 – Not surprisingly, I was a first round pick

CLUE #4 – Despite my pedigree, I didn't do great in the AHL and it took me until I was 22 before was in the NHL to stay

CLUE #5 – I did even worse at first in the NHL, as I failed to average even a point per every other game until my fourth full season

CLUE #6 – Eventually though I did fare much better, as during a three season stretch I posted a scoring rate of 60+ points twice

CLUE #7 – But until my most recent season (more on that below) my two best seasons on a points per game basis were also the ones where I played the fewest games since becoming an NHL regular, such that my career high in points is still only 41, which came in a different season

CLUE #8 – I've only played for two teams, the first of which I spent every season until my most recent NHL season

CLUE #7 – I really hit the ground running on my second team, with better than point per game scoring in my first few contests, but then I suffered a serious injury

CLUE #8 – That injury occurred in 2021, and I haven't played since

CLUE #9 – Although I have not officially retired, it's widely regarded that my career is over

CLUE #10 – My first team was the Predators, and the team for which I only briefly played was the Flyers

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. And yes, I realize I just did a Forum Buzz last week; however, the Forums remain fertile ground for great questions and it's a little too soon for a Poll or Goldipucks. And I need your questions – hint, hint – before I can publish a mailbag column.

Topic #1 – In a ten team, H2H, keep three plus two rookies (less than 82 NHL games), with categories of G, A, PPPts, SOG, HIT, BLK, FOW, W, SV, SV%, GAA, a GM has been offered a trade of Tim Stutzle, Timo Meier, Zach Werenski plus a third round pick for his J.T. Miller, Cole Caufield, and Brandon Montour. Should they accept the deal? The GM's current line-up is:

C: Connor Bedard, Joel Eriksson Ek, Nazem Kadri, Miller (RW)
LW: Brady Tkachuk, Caufield (RW), Ivan Barbashev (C)
RW: David Pastrnak, Tage Thompson (C)
D: Dougie Hamilton, Brandon Montour, John Carlson, Jacob Trouba, Justin Faulk
G: Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin

I'll say what I say every time under these circumstances, which is I do not believe trades where more than two players are coming and/or going are wise to make. For one, they have all the more likelihood of going wrong, plus are more difficult to dissect. There is also less chance of a definite win in making the trade, and every trade I make I want to be positioned, on paper, to be the one who does better because of it.

Al that having been said, this is a three-for-three trade, so I will assess it as is. First off, Werenski has a clear edge over Montour given that there is no +/- category. Werenski was nearly a point per game player in Q4 of last season; and although, despite what we've seen this far, Columbus might struggle to score goals given its lack of A-list forwards, we saw with Roman Josi that often the result is a talented rearguard can pile on even more points, as fewer goals might be scored but he is more likely to factor into the scoring if there is less point-magnet talent up front.

Montour had an epic season in 2022-23; but even accounting for time to get up to speed in 2023-24 after missing the start of the season due to injury, he produced at barely a 50-point pace, and that was for the high-octane Panthers and with him getting all the PP1 time he can handle. For Seattle, he's still seeing man advantage time, but his OZ% is under 40%, versus above 50% in each of his last two campaigns with the Panthers. So I give Werenski a big edge.

Caufield has started strong, but his ice time is actually down and his SH% is sky high. Also, after last season where he showed signs of being more of a balanced player, he seems to be back to being goals or bust. And that is not going to help boost his scoring. I fear that he might become the next Rick Nash or Wendel Clark, both of whom, for many years, poolies waited to truly break out, but never lived up to lofty expectations, and also started their careers with a few seasons of more goals than assists. Or he could be the next Peter Bondra, who was goal centric but panned out better overall.

As for Meier, as hyped as he's been his career, he's never even had a single point-per-game season. And after a scorching end to 2023-24, with 24 points in 21 games, plus a spot of PP1 he's started 2024-25 slow, losing his spot on PP1 in the process. Meier might end up being similar to a Chris Kreider, namely great in multicat but very dependent on line placement and PP deployment, and most often below – sometimes well below – the point per game mark. I'd give the slight edge to Caufield, although arguably a team like this might benefit more from Meier's banger prowess, whereas Caufield is basically useless in HIT and BLK.

Now for the big guns – Miller and Stutzle. The issues with Miller is that he's had two amazing seasons, but they were not in a row, plus he's on the other side of 30, which, in view of the style of game he plays, could lead to decreasing production and/or more risk of injury. As for Stutzle, he is seemingly on a mission to show the world what he can do when healthy, as he's started on fire. Plus, even when playing hurt for essentially the entire 2023-24 campaign, and sporting a SH% in the single digits, he still managed to score at a 77 point pace. He's also almost a decade younger than Miller, and usually throws in a good number of hits. Yes, Stutzle hurts the team in terms of FOW, but that is a small factor.

Given that Werenski has a big edge, Caufield and Meier are likely comparable, and Stutzle is better than Miller, this is a trade I'm making. But I'd still try to make it Stutzle and Werenski for Miller and Montour, as that way it's not three players and it's even more favorable.

Topic #2 – In a 14 team, keep 25, start 12F, 6D, 2G, 10 Farm (8 skaters, 2 goalies), 5 Bench, 5 IR roto league with a $108M cap and categories of G, A, Pts, PIM, HIT, BLK, SOG. Forward Points, Defensemen Points, Win+Ties+SO, GAA, and SV, a GM has the following players:

F: Sebastian Aho, Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Connor Bedard, Alex DeBrincat, Trevor Zegras, Jonathan Marchessault, Scott Laughton, Michael Bunting, Sam Bennett, Jack McBain, Martin Pospisil, Nicholas Paul, Adam Lowry, Marco Rossi, Alexander Holtz,

D: Miro Heiskanen, Adam Fox, Brandt Clarke, Nick Seeler, Will Borgen, Niko Mikkola, Andrew Peeke

G: Alexandar Georgiev, Joey Daccord, Anthony Stolarz, Calvin Pickard

FARM: Alex Catton, Zach Benson, Rutger McGroarty, Oliver Moore, Bobby Brink, Rasmus Sandin Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Oren Zellweger, Dmitriy Simashev, Dustin Wolf, Ivan Fedotov

Which two of the following would he hold onto: Laughton, Lowry, Paul, Bunting?

I'm glad I get to answer this question, since I'm sure there are readers in leagues deep enough as to where players like this do matter. Given that it's a cap league, we should start there. And while the others are within a couple hundred thousand of each other, Bunting is about $1M more than the rest. That can matter when so many players are rostered.

And let's start with Bunting. He's not hit the ground running, failing to find chemistry with the Evgeni Malkin despite Malkin's red hot start, and not landing a coveted spot on Pittsburgh's PP1. He is still shooting the puck though, and the Pens are not brimming with other options for the top six. So Bunting does still have realistic upside; however, if he falls into the bottom six and gets only PP2 time, then I'd be shocked if he was able to average even a point per every other game. His other multi-cat stats are good but not great.

Paul has started 2024-25 in the top six, which is new for him. And he is doing well, plus he has size, which, when combined with scoring ability, matters. He's no longer on PP1, at least for the time being; however, he's garnering a decent amount of PP time nevertheless, and Tampa might want to revert back to him being on the top unit at some point. Otherwise, in terms of multicat he too is good but not great.

Laughton was leaned on quite a bit by John Tortorella in Torts' first season behind the bench for the Flyers; however, his ice time took a big hit last season, and so far for 2024-25 it's dropped to not even 12 minutes per game. And considering that when he did receive upwards of 18:00 in 2023-24 he barely produced above the point per every other game mark, it's highly unlikely he'll be an impactful scorer with this little ice time. Those things having been said, his banger stats are very good, and he is still shooting the puck.

Lowry is a bottom six forward who takes lots of faceoffs and chips in with points. But he's never reached the point per every other game mark, although he's come close and is being deployed similar to the last two seasons, each of which saw him produce at a 35-point pace. And although his faceoff acumen is inconsequential here, he also is very strong in multicat.

If I'm picking two, one is Lowry. He's unspectacular but he has the highest floor and his multicat contributions will be impactful. The second choice is tougher, but I'm going with Paul. It looks like he is going to be in the top six picture and will get PP time, and could even get back onto the top PP unit. And although Bunting offers the most home run potential, he's also more expensive and it's far from clear that he'll be able to keep ahold of a spot in the top six.

Topic #3 – In a keeper with categories of G, A, PPPts, SOG, HIT, BLK, with many forwards in the line-up but only five defensemen, which is the preferred duo: Juraj Slafkovsky and Charlie McAvoy or Lucas Raymond and Miro Heiskanen?

This question is exactly the type I like to answer because it covers so many subtleties of fantasy hockey. First and foremost, deployment is king, and McAvoy and Heiskanen are great examples to underscore this. If deployed in the same manner, Heiskanen would almost assuredly be a better defenseman to own, as he showed in 2022-23 that he can pile on the points, plus. unlike with their forwards. Dallas had no qualms about having its top rearguard take the ice as often as possible. But last season Thomas Harley arrived, who is talented in his own right, and who was paired – and remains paried – with Heiskanen at even strength. The effect on Heiskanen was pronounced, as Harley syphoned away points that in 2022-23 would've likely gone to Heiskanen. Yes, Heiskanen remained the top dog on the PP; however, he was no longer a surefire bet for top tier production.

Meanwhile, in that same 2022-23 season, McAvoy had to share PP duties with Hampus Lindholm, which cost McAvoy points. Now McAvoy is top dog on the PP again, which is key since McAvoy's point total needs boosting because it is clear that the rising tide of a historically great 2022-23 Bruins team has ebbed quite a bit. Long story short, if Heiskanen and McAvoy were both still deployed how they were in 2022-23, Heiskanen could outpoint McAvoy by 20-30+ points, with McAvoy not being the top PP dog and not lifted by the team around him, while Heiskanen's ES scoring wouldn't be throttled by Harley. But as things stand now, McAvoy should finish close enough in scoring to Hesikanen that McAvoy's vastly superior multicat stats make him a better own in the league than Heiskanen.

As for Slafkovsky and Raymond, we get the benefit of seeing a player – in Raymond – who's hit his breakout threshold, and being able to gain added insight from that. Raymond did make strides to coincide with his BT; however, his SOG rate was still not even two per game and only 16 of his 72 points were on the PP. Yes, he did score 72 points; but in doing so he seemingly was very lucky, as of the 674 instances where a forward scored 70+ points in a season dating back to 2000-01, just 29 others did so despite 16 or fewer PPPts. Yet unlike Raymond, none of those 29 was a winger who didn't average at least two SOG in doing so. That is pretty concerning data, and strongly suggests Raymond was very, very lucky to do as well as he did, and, in turn, raises concerns that he might not be as good as he seems.

As for Slaf, as a larger sized player, he'd theoretically have until game 400 to break out. But he was showing signs of doing so last season, with 35 points in his last 40 games while sporting a SOG per game rate of 2.4 and tallying 12 PPPts.

As I write this, both Raymond and Slaf have started 2024-25 strongly. Yes, Slaf's SOG per game rate is down, but he's thriving on the PP, while Raymond's SOG rate is up, and he's doing okay on the PP. But given that we've seen from Raymond having hit his BT, plus Slaf already better in other multicat areas, makes Slaf the better player to own.

So we have a case of a "better" defenseman in Heiskanen and a forward in Raymond that looks to be just scratching the surface. But upon closer inspection, Heiskanen's situation has changed and Raymond got very lucky, such that the side to take here, in my view, is Slaf and McAvoy.

Topic #4 – In one year H2H league with skater categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPPts, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, a team which already has Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle is thinking of trading their Drake Batherson for Alex DeBrincat to diversify their team. Does the trade make sense?

In general, I do like the idea of diversification in H2H leagues. If you have several players on the same team, then when things go well for that team it often leads to a "win more" situation but if those players go cold, it can really cost you. And one bad week in the playoffs can spell doom. Also, the more players on the same team the less one can make daily changes – assuming those are available – to maximize games played. My preference is instead to focus on players from various teams who either are "safe bets" or serve a well-needed purpose.

With all that in mind, DeBrincat did not make the splash in Detroit that many felt he would, only managing to equal his scoring pace from the prior season with the Sens. Also, the full minute of TOI he shed in coming to Detroit was entirely on the PP, which was not good. Still, he was on PP1 more than not. This season, however, he's been off and on the top PP unit, but has skated with Dylan Larkin for the most part at ES. Still, the two quarters where he was skating mostly with Larkin last season only saw DeBrincat post 34 points in 39 games, or not much better than his actual scoring rate, and again that was when he was a PP1 fixture.

As for Batherson, he's back on PP1 for the Sens, but his TOI is way down. Still, he is technically in the top six, skating with a – for time being – rejuvenated Josh Norris. And although I did say that I'm not a huge fan of stacking in H2H, the exception would be when a team can have as many bodies as possible on PP1, since that is so important inasmuch as every PPPt not only counts in that category, and the more players a team has the more likely they are to get PPPts and keep other teams from getting PPPts, but every PPPt is also a "regular" goal or an assist as well.

If DeBrincat was a lock for PP1, or had done better last season alongside Larkin, I think I'd favor the trade. But the potential to get a stranglehold on Ottawa's PP1 and a player who's unlikely to land outside the top six might give the slight edge to keeping Batherson. In the end, I think it's close enough for there to be no wrong answer, but if it was me I'd probably roll the dice with DeBrincat, as his impediments to PP1 as of now are J.T. Compher, who seemingly can be leapfrogged, and Patrick Kane, who is a great story in having come back from hip resurfacing, but is defying the odds with every game he plays and is more of an injury risk than normal.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team, H2H Weekly (Daily Lineups), keep 23, league with 28 players rostered and categories of G, A, Pt, STP, SOG, HIT, BLK, GPT6, SV, SV%, SHO, a team who is in win now mode has been offered Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and a 5th round pick for Chris Kreider, Anton Lundell and a 3rd round pick. This is their line-up:

C: Auston Matthews, Brayden Point, Mika Zibanejad, Anton Lundell, Dylan Strome
LW: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Clayton Keller, Chris Kreider
RW: Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Mikko Rantanen, Logan Stankoven, Anthony Duclair
D: Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev, Zach Werenski, Shea Theodore, Radko Gudas, Jeremy Lauzon
G: Jake Oettinger, Pyotr Kochetkov, Samuel Ersson

IR: Aleksander Barkov, Boone Jenner

Should they accept the deal?

If this team and format look familiar, it's because I discussed them in another context in last week's Forum Buzz column. But the question this time is very different, so let's take a fresh look at things.

One of the issues I had with this team was it being too stacked, meaning it had too many players who were on the same team if not the same line. In trading Kreider, that would address one of the stacking situations, so I like to see that. But the same deal would result in a Washington stack with Ovechkin and Strome, and a stack on a below average team is worse than a stack in general, so that solves one "problem" by seemingly creating another. Yes, I realize that Lundell and Barkov are both on Florida; however, they will never be on the same line, and Lundell has some lure in that, as is the case right now, he provides insurance when Barkov inevitably misses games during the season.

Speaking of Lundell, he's looked great and seemingly he's had this in him all along, needing only a fair chance to strut his stuff. The issue is once Barkov is back to health, Lundell likely is back centering the third line, as the Panthers like the sandpaper that Sam Bennett gives them on the second line. Or to put it another way, if the Panthers had wanted to give Lundell a shot in the top six, they'd have done so already. Yes, he's now making it more difficult to demote him to the bottom six, but I fear that will be what occurs given the success the team has had.

And let this be yet another reminder that in the real NHL it's about winning, not stats; so that can mean players who could do better are not given the opportunity to do so. And even as he's thrived, we can see that Lundell still is not on PP1, which is a sign that things should revert to the norm once Barkov is back to health. As such, I think Lundell is a good sell. Is Lundell a good long term hold? Perhaps; however, this team is in win now mode so he's exactly the player I'd be looking to move in a deal.

Kreider is another I'd be eager to unload. His ice time is down a good amount this season, and he had never strung together two great seasons in a row, which is a cause for concern since he had a great one in 2023-24, meaning he is due for a letdown. Kreider also is essentially defying the odds already too, as for most players like him who played a rough and tumble style for their careers, most often they hit a wall at age 30, if not earlier. Consider just these examples: Wayne Simmonds, David Backes, Ryan Callahan, Brenden Morrow, Milan Lucic, Brandon Dubinsky, and Erik Cole. All were shells of their former selves by Kreider's age, if they even were still in the NHL at that point. Even Dustin Brown, who managed to post 61 points at the same age as Kreider, had mostly poor seasons at age 30 and older. So yes, selling Kreider is also something I can definitely endorse.

The question is whether the 2024-25 versions of Ovi and Sid are enough to make this trade a win. In the case of Crosby, absolutely, as the Pens not only still need him, but they also will do all they can to ensure he breaks Wayne Gretzky's record of most point per game seasons. So he would be a good acquisition. As for Ovi though, his ice time and SOG rates are dropping, and he is taking the ice for less and less non-PP time. But he's still basically never on the bench during a PP, and Washington doesn't have other options that would allow them to deemphasize Ovi. And he still does hit like he always has. So while I don't love this trade, I think it is one a team looking to win now should indeed make.

Topic #6 – In a point only keeper, who's the better own: Matthew Tkachuk or Elias Pettersson?

Longtime followers of the site know this column formerly was a weekly Cage Match, where I'd select two players and compare them to decide who is the better own. It's nice to hearken back to that every once in a while, and this is a doozie.

Looking first at Tkachuk, he had two superb seasons in 2021-22 and 2022-23. The issue is the latter season he was above 20 minutes per game, while in the former season he was on a line where everything clicked. In both those seasons, he ended up with better than a four points per 60 minutes of ice time rate. But prior to 2021-22, he was only once above 2.9, and last season he was a very solid 3.5, but that was a step down versus what many were expecting.

What I think it boils down to is IPP, as Tkachuk's have been quite consistent at 69-70% in each of the last three seasons. That is great when he is a focal point or getting tons of ice time, but less so when he is taking the ice less and scoring is spread more among his teammates. This is a key point in that playing for Florida is great because they are superb offensively; however, there is a "too many cooks" problem where they have so much talent that the points being scored don't go to just one person. So unless Tkachuk's ice time rises back to where it was in 2022-23, and there are no signs of that occurring, his days of 100+ point scoring paces are likely over.

Yes, Tkachuk's SH% last season was a good bit less than it was in 2022-23, but his PP scoring was identical, and the boost he's likely to get from a renormalized SH% is seemingly going to be offset by a still lower ice time than 2023-24. So roughly 90 points seems like what the new normal will be for Tkachuk unless his ice time rises back to the levels of prior seasons.

Pettersson took longer than expected to thrive, but sure enough in 2022-23 he hit the century mark in points, and most everyone felt he'd arrived such that, if anything, he'd only get better. Yet last season, like Tkachuk, he took a step back, this despite more PPPts. With EP40, the secret seems to lie in his shooting, as other than his 2022-23 campaign he's never bested 2.5 SOG per game, and that will make it tough to score in droves, especially since his SH% is already super high so counting on that rising further is not very plausible. The other issue with Pettersson is he has not had great IPPs, except for that 2022-23 campaign, with 65% being his best in any other season and him never besting 60% on the PP, even in 2022-23. That PP IPP is not good to see, and not encouraging in terms of his likelihood of climbing back to 2022-23 scoring levels.

On the plus side, in three of the past four seasons the Canucks have a 5×5 SH% of 12.7% or higher when Pettersson is on the ice, meaning he is responsible for points happening. And make not mistake – that is great to see; but it is not as great when his IPPs don't ensure he factors into those points he helped create plus there is no room for it to grow more. For what it's worth, EP40 is a year younger, but that's less meaningful than Tkachuk playing a rough style which might lend itself to him breaking down earlier, although If that was to occur chances are it wouldn't for several seasons.

In all, I think these are two players who are overvalued due to the expectations that they will be able to recapture their past glory, when in truth that looks less and less likely for each. And while Tkachuk has better IPPs, EP40 has higher 5×5 team SH% rates, such that there might be more scoring when Pettersson is on the ice, but he factors into it less, whereas Tkachuk is more of a points magnet but less scoring occurs, by comparison, when he's on the ice. In the end, I give the edge to Tkachuk, as Pettersson doesn't shoot enough, and that seems to be a problem he's not outgrowing, plus his superb 5×5 team SH% is likely maxed out.

Yes, notwithstanding his better IPPs Tkachuk has to fight over points more so than EP40 given the talent around him, but he has shown he shoots a lot and can produce on the PP, such that I'd say he's a safer bet than Pettersson, but it's quite close, whereby if I had one I wouldn't necessarily trade them for the other. What I would do though is try to trade either one for a player who might be undervalued but offers more upside, like Kirill Kaprizov, Mikko Rantanen, or Jack Eichel.

The ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Ryan Ellis!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.