This week we are flipping the script from our last column. We touched on the hottest starts then, but now we really need to turn attention to some ice-cold players. There are always some to start every season, but it is a little surprising just how many big names made the list here.

Like last week, it did not feel entirely appropriate to just look at all of the players with zero points, since a lot of them we might have expected to see without points six or seven games into the season. To get a better look I decided to compare each player's current points per game number to their three-year average. So basically, answering the question: 'Who is colder than expected?'

In order to grab this data, I ran a Dobber Big Board Report for the season to date (data is up to October 24th) and then ran a custom timeline report for the past three seasons. I was able to export that data, grab the columns I was interested in and then compare the two points per game numbers. Further, I eliminated players who haven't played at least four games as those small sample sizes are not as concerning, and not very representative.

We are left with the top ten players who are performing significantly worse than their recent point paces.

Let's knock a bunch of these off right at the start. All of the Edmonton top power play skaters are going to be fine. Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Leon Draisaitl (who is technically 11^th on this list), all fine. Over the past several seasons their power play percentage has been between 26-32%. So far this year it is 10% accounting for all of two team goals. Edmonton also started a bit slow in 2023-24 as well and everyone was fine. Granted Hyman never had a seven-game pointless streak in 2023-24 so maybe he lands just under his usual pace for the year, but still overall I am not that worried yet. RNH's recent career numbers are bit off because of that 104-point season that isn't repeatable, but 70 certainly is. Moral of the story is sure maybe knock a couple points off of their full season numbers because of a slow start, but once they get into gear I don't see any reason to expect the RNH to be a 35-point player, Hyman to continue to be held off the score sheet, McDavid to be less than an 120-point player, or Draisaitl to be less than an 100-point player.

That leaves Viktor Arvidsson. I similarly don't expect him to remain pointless over his next seven games, particularly if he keeps lining up with Draisaitl, but moving to a new team and not being on the top power play in Edmonton is going to be a challenge. The last time he put up a 60-plus point pace over a full (ish) season he had 25 points on the power-play. In his recent history he has averaged about a 40-point even strength pace over 82 games, which seems like the floor here.

David Pastrnak is in very much the same boat as the Edmonton power play. He is the driver on the Bruins, and while he is off to a slow start he will definitely turn it around. The cast of characters around him has certainly changed in recent years and his most common historical linemate in Brad Marchand is now 36 and has had multiple surgeries so let's just say there is no guarantee with his line mates. So sure, is it possible that these slow seven games mean he doesn't quite eclipse 110 points? I guess, but overall, I am not yet concerned.

Miro Heiskanen is mostly in this group as well. Deployment, shots, and team quality are not at all a concern. If he continues to be snake bitten, I suppose there is a chance that Thomas Harley gets a short term shot on the power play, but ultimately nothing yet indicates Heiskanen won't be fine. I don't think that 76-point season should be the reference point though, so if your hopes were a bounceback from his 62-point pace to his 76-point pace you might be disappointed, but a strong all around season still looks absolutely reasonable.

Now we get to a few question marks.

Elias Pettersson should be good right? He is still getting all the time on ice he could need, both at even strength and on the power play. His linemates are a bit in flux, and might be a little bit questionable, so that isn't great, but the biggest concern is his shooting. He has dropped all the way down to 1.5 shots per game over these six games which is a full shot and a half less than his high two seasons ago, and down a full shot from last year. I think it is a little early to truly hit the panic button, but he is unlikely to hit the 90- to 100-point mark as he has recently if he continues shooting only 1.5 times per game.

Steven Stamkos has the new team red flag, and clearly things are taking a minute to click in Nashville. Overall though I don't see anything too concerning. He is averaging his highest time on ice overall since 2015-16 and seeing over a 70% share of the team's power-play time. So far, he is tying his career best in terms of average shot rates, and spending a lot of even strength time with Jonathan Marcheassault (who incidentally is also disappointing). He has also yet to be on the ice for an even strength goal. With the caveat that sometimes players on new teams do unexpected things, all other signs point to buy if you can, and that he will be just fine.

David Perron has extended his value in fantasy leagues long past expectations. He has changed teams multiple times and found ways to be that unexpected waiver wire bubble player for years. I think though we may have hit the end of that fantasy relevance. For positives he is getting some second power-play time, and he is shooting, almost three times per game. On the downside, he is getting third line deployment to the tune of 13:30 per night (a two minute drop from 2023-24 and essentially a career low) and only 30ish percent of the team's power-play time (also a career low). The result has been a huge drop in expected goals numbers. So, is he going to be held off the score sheet all season? No. In a very deep league where shots are valuable can you add him for a hot run? Sure, but when we combine with his current absence from the team due to a personal matter, we may have seen the end of Perron's fantasy relevance.  

I'm essentially going to say the same for Brent Burns. At 39 his play has been dropping for a while. He is still getting some decent overall minutes, but his shot rates are declining, and his power play time has taken a big hit (only 29% of his team's power-play time, a career low). For the positives he is still doing some shooting and blocking and will certainly get on the score sheet at some point, but I can't in good conscience recommend him. His 43-point pace in 2023-24 took 20 power play points. The lowest power play TOI share he has ever had prior to this was 38 percent and, in that case, he managed 11 power-play points. Even if he somehow manages that many (which I don't think is likely), we are talking about a 30-point defenseman who has ok, but not spectacular shot and block numbers. If that is valuable as a fourth D, that works, just make sure your expectations are set accordingly.

That is all for this week.

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