Lining Up: Values Rising in San Jose; Pacioretty’s Opportunity; Garland’s Stock Increase
Peter Ryell
2024-10-29
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! This week we will do a deep dive on San Jose after a stunning upset last night as well as look at a couple of other names to check in on for your roster moving forward.
Let's dive in.
San Jose
Ok. We need to talk about San Jose. Yes, they are in the bottom three teams of the league in GF/G at 2.30 and yes that is right on track with last season where they finished 2.21 after 82 games. And yes, their power play conversion rate this season is almost identical to last year's at 21.9% and 20.2% respectively. But after a big upset in Utah last night that saw San Jose score three goals in the final five minutes of the game, followed by a goal in OT to win it all, let's take a look at the top line combinations at even strength and on the power play to see who is doing the scoring and whether or not there is value to be had.
Tyler Toffoli –Mikael Granlund – William Eklund
Starting with the top line, we have Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Granlund and William Eklund. The line is being deployed very favourably, seeing close to a 60 OZ Start % and Granlund and Eklund are both averaging north of 21 minutes of TOI so far this season, with Toffoli up to a career-high 17:54. Additionally, each of these three players on the top line are averaging over 70% of power play time or over three and a half minutes of PPTOI on average. As a result, all players are performing well so far but none are hotter than Granlund right now who is up to 12 points in his last seven games while pouring on just over three and a half shots per game. Eklund is bringing it lately with six points in his last six games and Toffoli is joining in on the fun with nine points in ten games so far this season.
As you might have guessed, there are some red flags with each player that indicate the current point paces are not sustainable. Such as a slightly high 13.9% shooting percentage from Granlund or a high secondary assist rate of 75% from Toffoli. Regardless however, they have been connecting as a line and continue to be heavily utilized night to night.
Alexander Wennberg – Jake Walman
Rounding out that top power play unit are Alexander Wennberg and Jake Walman. Both players have had or will have somewhat tenuous grips on their spots here. Wennberg for his part, will likely be the odd one out once Macklin Celebrini returns and recently Walman has ceded some power play time to Jack Thompson although last night he was back on the top unit.
Wennberg has been quiet this year but with this recent opportunity on the top unit, he has posted four points in three games, including two last night. Walman has been providing very solid value early on, especially in the peripheral categories where he has nearly six shots, hits and blocks per game in addition to five power play points. If one of the players from the top line are not available, Wennberg could be a decent stream for this week as San Jose still has three more games to come including a matchup against Chicago on Halloween.
That power play conversion rate that was mentioned earlier? Last season San Jose finished with 208 power play opportunities and this season they are on pace for 262. Yes, it's early in the season and typically more power plays get called earlier in the year than later, but if this were to hold or even increase to half the distance between both numbers, and should the powerplay conversion rate remain consistent, that would mean more points would be available for our players on the top unit.
Will Granlund continue to play at a 107-point pace? Almost definitely not, but for him and the other top players on the team, the heavy usage and favourable deployment will still provide solid value for your roster and likely at a discounted rate given the overall state of the team. Check on the asking price or even scoop up a player or two from San Jose as the top option in Granlund is still rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues.
Conor Garland was recently elevated in the Vancouver lineup, now on a line with Elias Pettersson and Nils Hoglander at even strength and also replacing Jake DeBrusk on the top power play unit. Despite going pointless last night, Garland has seven points in eight games so far, including four points in the last four. He is seeing career-highs in average TOI of 18:15 and average PPTOI at just over three minutes. This deployment has already allowed him to cash in two power play points and just for reference, he had five power play points total in 82 games last season while spending the majority of his time on the second unit.
Even though Pettersson himself is struggling, it's not just the pairing that can benefit Garland here but the added offensive deployment and ice time that comes with it. Especially if the coach wants to get Pettersson going again by serving up softer matchups and more OZ time. Time will tell whether Garland can stay in this spot but he is worth streaming in while the deployment is favourable.
After notching three points in last night's tilt against Winnipeg, Max Pacioretty is suddenly making an impact on the scoresheet. The points come just when Patches finds himself in a great spot, lining up alongside John Tavares and William Nylander at even strength and then joining a power play unit with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews as head coach Craig Berube mixes up his line combinations. This new deployment gave Patches 15:00 of TOI last night, including just over two minutes of power play time which are both big increases from his season average so far of 11:35 and 1:32 in TOI and PPTOI. His shot total is still low and owners would like to see that increase, especially if he continues to see closer to 15 minutes rather than 11-12 minutes per night, but he does have 17 hits in seven games. Should his ice time remain consistent from here on out and if he can stay in the top-six, that may help elevate his shot totals and perhaps we could even get a glimpse of the old Pacioretty.