Analytics Advantage: Top Performers Including Tkachuk, Kaprizov, Granlund, and Others

Stas Pupkov

2024-10-31

Welcome back to this week's edition of Analytics Advantage! As we progress deeper into the NHL campaign, player efficiency and production patterns are starting to emerge more clearly. This week, we're putting a spotlight on players who are making significant contributions in fantasy leagues across categories like Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG), hits, goals, assists, and more.

Top 10 Players by Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)

How FPPG is Calculated:

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG) is calculated by assigning point values to in-game actions:

                •             Goals: 6 points

                •             Total Assists: 4 points

                •             Shots on Goal and Shots Blocked: 1.6 points each

                •             Hits: 0.6 points

FPPG is then averaged over the number of games played to reflect each player's average contribution to a fantasy lineup per game.

In this analysis, we delve into some of the most impactful skaters in the league, divided into four sections highlighting top performers, reliable contributors, rising stars, and highly efficient players. Using a data-driven approach, we'll examine how each player is leveraging their ice time to maximize output and value for fantasy owners, with insights supported by detailed visual stats cards for key contributors.

From prolific scorers like Brady Tkachuk and Kirill Kaprizov, who bring versatility and consistency, to efficient players like Kiefer Sherwood, who makes the most of every shift, this report covers a range of profiles that can elevate any fantasy lineup. Whether you're in a points-heavy league or one that rewards physical play, this breakdown offers insights that can help you stay ahead in the fantasy race.

Section 1: Top Performers

Kyle Connor (WPG)

Kyle Connor's consistent scoring is driving the Winnipeg Jets' offense. With an impressive 16.12 FPPG in 10 games, Connor has been a major factor in the Jets' success. Known for his reliable offensive contributions, Connor benefits from Winnipeg's high Goals For Percentage (GF%) of 65.71%. Winnipeg also leads the league in Low Danger Goals For (LDGF) with Neal Pionk at the helm, showcasing the team's unique scoring adaptability across danger levels.

League Context: Winnipeg's Neal Pionk currently leads in LDGF with 10, complementing Connor's scoring efforts by bolstering the team's goal-scoring versatility, giving Winnipeg an edge in both low- and high-danger situations.

Brady Tkachuk (OTT)

Brady Tkachuk embodies Ottawa's physical and offensive dual-threat approach, achieving 16.47 FPPG in nine games. Known for his aggressive playstyle, Tkachuk leads the league in Efficiency (0.912), showing how he maximizes every second on the ice for fantasy points. Ottawa's High Danger Shots For Percentage (HDSF%) of 55.07% is among the best in the league, aligning perfectly with Tkachuk's penchant for high-danger play.

League Context: Ottawa's Tim Stützle leads the league in second assists with eight, providing Tkachuk with additional setup support, making Ottawa's high-danger opportunities especially fruitful.

Kirill Kaprizov (MIN)

Kirill Kaprizov has proven himself as Minnesota's offensive dynamo, boasting a strong 15.18 FPPG across nine games. His time on ice, averaging 22.81 minutes per game, highlights his importance to the Wild's strategy. Minnesota has been excelling in medium-danger situations, with an impressive Medium Danger Shots For Percentage (MDSF%) of 53.15%, allowing Kaprizov to leverage his playmaking skills in these controlled yet productive situations.

League Context: Kaprizov's teammate, Matt Boldy, is a notable contributor in this space, ensuring Minnesota's offense stays diverse. Additionally, Kaprizov's high first assists tally of 10 puts him among the league leaders, demonstrating his effectiveness at initiating scoring plays.

Section 2: Consistent Contributors

Mikael Granlund (SJS)

Mikael Granlund has been the primary offensive engine for the San Jose Sharks, putting up 13 points in 11 games with an FPPG of 12.78. Playing 21.6 minutes per game, Granlund is often relied upon to create scoring opportunities for a team that's otherwise struggling to find the net. His individual offensive contribution stands out, leading the Sharks in expected goals for (7.19) and consistently generating chances, with 3.53 individual expected goals (ixG) highlighting his scoring potential.

Although his defensive impact isn't strong, as shown by his lack of contributions in defensive metrics, Granlund's offensive skill set keeps San Jose's offense alive. Without much support, he's become the go-to player in high-pressure situations, carrying the Sharks' attack nearly single-handedly.

Team Context: With the Sharks' scoring struggles, Granlund's ability to produce points is crucial. His high ice time reflects the team's reliance on him, and he remains one of the few bright spots in their offense, consistently stepping up despite limited support around him.

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Matt Boldy (MIN)

Matt Boldy has become a critical offensive component for the Minnesota Wild, achieving 13.64 FPPG over nine games with a TOI/GP of 19.90. Boldy's contributions align well with Minnesota's MDSF% (Medium Danger Shots For Percentage) of 53.15%, indicating their success in creating opportunities in controlled offensive plays. Boldy's role within this system is crucial, capitalizing on these opportunities to boost the Wild's scoring.

League Context: Minnesota's effectiveness in creating opportunities extends to their Scoring Chances Goals For Percentage (SCGF%), in which teammate Kirill Kaprizov is a leading contributor, rounding out the Wild's formidable offense.

Jake Guentzel (TBL)

Jake Guentzel has seamlessly adapted to his role on Tampa Bay's top line, skating alongside Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. With an FPPG of 12.80 and 19:07 TOI per game, Guentzel has not only maintained his scoring touch but also elevated the play of his linemates. This line has proven itself as an offensive powerhouse, producing effectively even in the absence of Steven Stamkos. Guentzel's knack for finding open ice and capitalizing on his teammates' playmaking abilities has positioned him as a reliable fantasy option.

Team Context: Tampa Bay's GF% of 59.46% highlights their offensive strength, with the Point-Kucherov-Guentzel combination keeping up the scoring momentum that fans are used to. The chemistry on this line has kept Tampa competitive in the high-scoring Atlantic Division.

Section 3: Underrated Assets

Kaiden Guhle (MTL)

With Kaiden Guhle back in the lineup, he's poised to bolster Montreal's blue line, bringing a much-needed physical and defensive presence. His early performance, highlighted by his solid 21.75 minutes per game, has shown promise, and the Canadiens will look to him for steady contributions, especially in high-danger situations. Guhle's efficiency at blocking shots and his defensive positioning make him a key asset in Montreal's back end, especially given his ability to break up plays effectively in the defensive zone.

Team Context: Montreal has relied heavily on Guhle to anchor their defense, and his absence has been noticeable. His strong start to the year underscored his role as a defensive leader for the Canadiens, and his return will undoubtedly be a boost to Montreal's blueline, which has struggled in his absence.

Neal Pionk (WPG)

Neal Pionk has been a consistent and reliable presence for the Winnipeg Jets, balancing both offensive and defensive responsibilities effectively. Playing 20.86 minutes per game over 10 games, Pionk has maintained a steady FPPG of 12.68, showcasing his ability to contribute in multiple areas. Known for his positioning and defensive awareness, Pionk leads the league in low-danger goals-for (LDGF) with 10, illustrating his knack for generating scoring opportunities from low-risk areas.

Team Context: The Jets are currently excelling in the Central Division, and Pionk's defensive reliability has played a significant role. His steady performance provides balance to Winnipeg's blue line, allowing for more offensive freedom among the team's forwards. Pionk's versatility makes him a valuable asset for both the Jets and fantasy managers looking for a stable point source from the back end.

William Karlsson (VGK)

William Karlsson, despite a small sample size of just three games this year, has made an impact with an FPPG of 12.6. Logging 14.31 minutes per game, Karlsson's efficient use of ice time highlights his offensive talent and scoring instincts. Paired with skilled linemates, Karlsson has demonstrated his playmaking abilities and scoring touch, particularly thriving when supported by Vegas' dynamic forward group. His role within the Golden Knights' lineup, even in limited minutes, allows him to create high-quality scoring chances.

Team Context: The Golden Knights' depth at forward enables Karlsson to play in a role that maximizes his strengths, contributing to Vegas' offensive depth. His chemistry with his linemates provides the team with added scoring depth, allowing Vegas to pressure opponents consistently across multiple lines. Karlsson's contribution, even in limited appearances, underscores the importance of depth scoring for the Golden Knights.

Section 4: Efficient Contributors

In this final section, we look at players who are making the most out of every minute on the ice, maximizing their impact with limited TOI. These players may not always log heavy minutes, but they bring high value in the categories that count for fantasy.

Kiefer Sherwood (VAN)

Kiefer Sherwood's efficiency has been remarkable for Vancouver, maintaining an impressive 11.07 FPPG despite averaging only 12.83 minutes per game. His physical play shines, as he's managed to rack up 64 hits already, leading the league in this category. Sherwood's ability to bring grit and energy to each shift has allowed him to stand out as a dependable multi-category contributor in fantasy. With a knack for getting involved physically and using his limited ice time effectively, Sherwood's play has injected physicality and reliability into the Canucks' lineup, adding depth to Vancouver's overall game.

Thank you for reading! Feel free to reach out on Twitter/X – @DH_staspup for any questions, corrections, or comments. You can also ask for any player's graph or a whole set of graphs for your roster—I can post it, DM, or email. (For entire rosters, please DM an email or email me at [email protected]).

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