Lining Up: Connor McMichael, Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, and Washington’s Hot Start
Peter Ryell
2024-11-05
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! After taking a closer look at San Jose last week, let's shift focus to a team that has had kicked off their year in a big way.
Washington has defied expectations early on, sitting comfortably tied for third in the division and sporting a top three Goals For per Game rate of 4.18 while winning eight of their 11 games played. Their schedule so far has been a mix of good and bad teams so we can't say this is all due to playing Philadelphia a third of the time. Regardless, the 'why' here is less important than trying to figure out who is doing all the damage with the team scoring 20 goals in the last four games. Plus, with three games still to come this week, it's high time to do a deep dive into the top two lines at even strength to figure out if anyone can help your fantasy roster.
Let's dive in.
Dylan Strome – Alex Ovechkin – Aliaksei Protas
Effectively there are two top lines or a 1A/1B situation here in Washington. One line has Alex Ovechkin on it and the other plays slightly more at even strength. As has been covered, Ovechkin is off to a great start as he chases history with nine points in his last four games and 14 points in 11 games on the season. He is back to shooting and hitting a lot with nearly six shots and hits combined per game despite seeing slightly less time this year at even strength. There are some red flags in a likely unsustainable 19.4% shooting percentage and a 20.5% 5on5 shooting percentage, both indicators that he and his line are scoring above normal rates.
Which is also partly why we are seeing Dylan Strome on a great streak of his own with eight points in his last four games. Despite seeing very similar ice time and usage from last year to this year, he is benefitting from that 5on5 shooting percentage as well as his own personal shooting percentage of 21.1%. It is unlikely then that he continues at his current 127 point-pace for the whole year but at only 58% owned in Yahoo leagues, he is worth trying to stream in for the solid Washington schedule this week. Strome's other knock is that he has recently been rotated down to the second power play unit, although was back practicing with the top unit this morning. He will need to consistently stay here if there is any hope of trying to cancel out some of the inevitable regression in scoring.
Lastly, slotting in on the 1A line here is Aliaksei Protas who has seven points in the last four games. Unlike Ovechkin and Strome, Protas is not getting any top line power play usage or, in fact, any power play usage at all. So, when examining his advanced statistics and seeing the high personal and 5on5 shooting percentages, the concern is higher for an upcoming regression when the ice time and power play time are not there to help mitigate that drop. He could be a good gamble to stream in on the lighter Wednesday and Friday games while the line is hot.
What is interesting about the current Washington hot streak is that they are actually the third-worst team in the league on the power play. Their power play conversion rate is only slightly ahead of Toronto and Buffalo at 10.8%. When advanced indicators show that Ovechkin and Strome are currently hot, a market correction of the Washington power play would help to offset some of that regression in even strength production when it comes.
Tom Wilson – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Connor McMichael
As mentioned above, with the power play struggling early on, the last few games have seen Connor McMichael replace Strome on the top unit. Although he has yet to convert, this is a great spot for him to be in and he has consequently averaged 18:27 of TOI over his last four games in addition to four goals. He also had a monster 10-shot game against the New York Rangers last week and so is making the most of his opportunity.
Tom Wilson continues to do Tom Wilson things in his role, stuffing shot, hit and penalty minute categories while posting a solid nine points in 11 games. He is seeing an increase in power play usage, up to a 60% share which would be a career-high rate for him if that continues. As mentioned, if that Washington power play can get going, he may be in for a boost in points that would offset his current 23.1% shooting percentage.
Unlike everyone else in the top six, Pierre-Luc Dubois has been ice cold with one point in his last five games despite seeing 1B and top power play deployment. This morning it appears as though Washington is going to swap him out for Strome which is great news for McMichael but bad for Dubois who now loses this role. He has been contributing in some peripheral categories but if you are looking to stream in someone from the roster, better to look at any of the names listed here.
If Strome is available in your league, he is the top option to pick up this week. Next is McMichael so long as he is on the first power play unit. Otherwise, if you are in a deeper league, Protas is a good option to stream as well, especially with the lighter Wednesday and Friday games available. With all of these Washington players comes the caveat that as a whole, the team is bingeing on some high shooting percentages. Players who are on the top power play may have more sustainability but at least for the great schedule this week, don't hesitate to cash in on Washington.
Quickly, here a couple of other players who have seen a change in deployment recently.
Wyatt Johnston has joined Jason Robertson on a line with Dadonov. For anyone disappointed with Johnston's slow start, being back with Robertson could light a fire and Dadonov may get lucky enough being the third wheel.
Pius Suter is getting a look on a line with Elias Pettersson. He scored two goals against San Jose and plays Anaheim tonight.
With Auston Matthews out tonight, Toronto has gone back to loading the top power play unit, but Matthew Knies is drawing in. In a divisional matchup against Boston, there could be a lot of penalties tonight.