Ramblings: Nichushkin Nearing Return; Gibson Back In; Streaming Dorofeyev, Lekkerimäki & Roslovic (Nov 11)
Brennan Des
2024-11-11
With today being Veterans Day in the US and Remembrance Day in Canada, we have an early game scheduled for 12:30 PM EST between the Habs and Sabres, so make sure to set your lineups in advance!
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Valeri Nichushkin will be back in the lineup this week, set to make his season debut on Friday against the Capitals. He's just about served a six-month suspension, which was a consequence of violating his Stage Two treatment plan created by the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. There are many off-ice considerations with Nichushkin, but he was a point-per-game player last year in Colorado while riding shotgun beside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. He's still available in 42% of Yahoo Leagues as I write this.
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Facing his former team in New Jersey, Mackenzie Blackwood looked like a different netminder bearing the same initials. The Devils threw 44 shots at Blackwood but he stopped them all, recording his first shutout of the campaign. It's hard to endorse him as a long-term option given San Jose's leaky defense, but he proved to be a valuable spot start on Sunday.
The loss was an unfortunate result for Jake Allen, who stopped 26 of the 27 shots San Jose directed his way. Allen's been a strong backup for the Devils, allowing one goal or less in four of his six starts this season. He entered Sunday's game with 3.03 goals saved above expected, outperforming Markstrom and his negative 2.97 GSAx (via Evolving Hockey). Markstrom has had a heavier workload so maybe a direct comparison isn't fair, but it'll be interesting to see if Allen earns some extra action as the season progresses.
The lone goal scored in this game wouldn't have moved the needle in many fantasy leagues. The three players that registered a point – Nico Sturm, Carl Grundstrom, and Henry Thrun – all boast 0% ownership in Yahoo Leagues.
Jake Walman missed the game with an upper-body injury, while Will Smith was a healthy scratch as part of his rookie development plan.
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We were close to a second game without fantasy-relevant offense as Jason Dickinson was the only point-getter in Minnesota vs. Chicago with less than five minutes on the clock. Fortunately, a Matt Boldy goal from Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello helped us avoid a complete wasteland of offense tonight. Philipp Kurashev and Seth Jones also helped a few fantasy rosters, combining for the game winner in overtime.
Boldy doesn't get enough credit for his consistently excellent production since he entered the league three years ago. After hovering around the 70-point mark previously, this looks to be the year he ascends above point-per-game status. He's been shooting the puck more this year, up to 3.6 shots per game after averaging 3.0 last season. Sunday's goal was his ninth of the campaign, putting him into a tie with Kaprizov for team lead. Both players are just two back of the league-lead – currently shared by Nikita Kucherov, Sam Reinhart, and William Nylander.
Petr Mrazek was excellent on Sunday, stopping 32 of the 33 shots he faced.
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Six and a half weeks after undergoing an appendectomy, John Gibson finally made his season debut against the Blue Jackets on Sunday. He had no time to ease in and hit the ground at warp speed, stopping 39 of the 41 shots thrown his way. The result may seem less significant given the opponent, but this isn't the same Columbus team that struggled to score last year. They've been solid offensively this season, based on both actual and expected goals for – so this was an encouraging effort from Gibson. It comes right after three-straight poor performances from Lukas Dostal, whose inexperience has been more noticeable in November after an excellent October. It might feel like the tides are turning in Anaheim's net, but I still have a hard time endorsing Gibson in fantasy formats due to his injury history, lacklustre numbers in recent years, and most importantly, the leaky defense in front of him.
Yegor Chinakhov's goal on Sunday was just his third point in his last nine appearances. That's a disappointing pace when you consider he opened the campaign with seven points in his first five outings. Recent pace aside, the 21st overall pick of the 2020 draft still has high upside as part of Columbus' top six and top power-play. He threw seven shots on net Sunday and is averaging three per game this season.
With a goal and an assist against Anaheim, Kirill Marchenko is now up to 15 points in 14 games. He leads the Jackets in points and sits top 40 in league scoring.
Leo Carlsson is rocking a lofty 20% shooting success rate after scoring on Sunday. That'll be a hard number to sustain all year but I'm more interested in Carlsson's 5on5 shooting percentage, which sits at a miniscule 4.35% – roughly half of what we'd expect. In other words, the puck isn't going in as often as it should be while Carlsson's on the ice, and he's probably deserving of more than just the two assists he currently has after 14 games.
Cutter Gauthier is still looking for the first goal of his young career. 35 shots this season and he hasn't had a lick of luck. He sports an ixG (individual expected goals created via NaturalStatTrick) of 4.61, so as long as he keeps doing what he's doing, the goals will come.
Mason McTavish missed the game with an upper-body injury and is out day-to-day.
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If you need a streaming option for the week ahead, I suggest you consider…
Pavel Dorofeyev (LW – Yahoo: 24% Rostered)
A top-six/top power-play role has empowered the 24-year-old forward to score eight goals through 14 games this season, averaging nearly three hits per game. Vegas has an ideal schedule this week with four light-night contests, making it easy to get Golden Knights into your fantasy lineup. As Ian pointed out in Saturday’s Ramblings, Nicolas Roy is another name to consider given his recent top-line/top-PP promotion with Mark Stone sidelined. We've seen Roy perform well in a similar situation before, and he already had a solid showing in Stone's absence on Friday. My only concern is that Stone is day-to-day and could return sooner rather than later, bumping Roy back down the lineup. Dorofeyev's role is more concrete, which is why I'd target him first.
Jonathan Lekkerimäki (RW – Yahoo: 1% Rostered)
A bit of a risky play given we haven't seen what he looks like in the NHL yet. However, after racking up five goals and two assists in seven AHL games, Vancouver's 15th overall pick of the 2022 draft looks primed to make his big-league debut this week, filling the roster spot that opened up after Brock Boeser's injury. It looks like Lekkerimaki will start out beside J.T. Miller, which isn't a bad place to be at all. Now, there's a very real possibility this call-up doesn't work out and he's sent down soon, but if you're in a deeper league and looking for a high-risk/high-reward pick up this week, Jonathan could be your man. If you're feeling less fun, the more established Jake DeBrusk – who has four points in his last four games – might be a better option. Vancouver is one of seven teams that play four games this week and as an added bonus, their opponents (CGY/NYI/CHI/NSH) are relatively weak.
Jack Roslovic (C/RW – Yahoo: 11% Rostered)
His ice time is lower than I'd like, but Roslovic has benefitted from riding shotgun on Carolina's top line beside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. Roslovic has seven points in his last six appearances and has registered at least three shots in each of those games. The Canes have a favourable schedule this week with the maximum four games, three of which are played on light nights. It helps that the teams they're up against (VGK/UTA/OTT/STL) have had trouble keeping pucks out thus far.
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What’s that you guys talk about, the 200 GP breakout threshold? Boldy was good before, and this year another big step for him. Fun to watch.
Info article on this here https://dobberhockey.com/2022/06/30/breakout-threshold-bt-using-career-games-played-to-determine-breakout-potential/