Ramblings: Ovi’s Goalden Night; Necas Extends Point Streak; Preds’ Power Players (Nov 18)
Brennan Des
2024-11-18
Carolina, who averages the most shots for and the fewest against, experienced a rarity on Sunday as they were outshout by the Blues. Still, they pulled out a 4-1 victory over St. Louis.
Pyotr Kochetkov had a strong showing, stopping 29 of the 30 shots he faced. Kochetkov has been better when busy this season. In the four games he's faced 30 or more shots, not once has he allowed more than two goals. In contrast, he's allowed four goals on two separate occasions – both times he faced less than 20 shots.
I think we need a new word to describe the mind-boggling first quarter Martin Necas is putting together. After racking up two goals and two assists against the Blues on Sunday, Necas has 27 points amidst the league's longest active point streak, which now sits at 13 games. He leads the league in scoring over the past month.
Last year, Necas posted 13 power-play points over 77 outings. 17 games into this season, he already has 12 PPPs. He's benefitted from more time with the man advantage, going from a 45% share of Carolia's PP time last year to 72% this year.
Now, his shooting percentage (25.6%) is roughly double what we've seen in recent seasons, so some regression is coming as the campaign progresses. Selling high would be the right value play, but if you're not getting enough back, Necas should still be a strong fantasy asset once he settles down to a more modest pace.
Necas' excellence has had a positive impact on linemate Eric Robinson, who posted three points on Sunday. Robinson has 11 points in his last 13 games and provides extra value in leagues that track hits. Limited ice time prevents him from being a must-add, but he's certainly someone to pay attention to in deeper leagues as long as Necas remains hot.
Five shots on net for Andrei Svechnikov, who has a career-high 3.65 per game this season. Only 10 players in the league are averaging more.
The power-play prowess we saw from Shayne Gostisbehere last year in Detroit is once again on full display, now with his new team in Carolina. Sunday's power-play helper gives him 13 points on the season – nine of which have come with the man advantage. As you would expect, the rise of Ghost coincides with the fall of Brent Burns, who is scoring at a shocking 24-point pace now that he's off the top-PP unit.
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With a hat trick against Vegas on Sunday, Ovi jumps atop the NHL's goal-scoring race with 13 goals in 17 games. He shares top spot with Sam Reinhart and Leon Draisaitl, who both have 13 in 18. At this point last season, Ovi was sitting at a modest five goals, leaving many concerned Father Time was catching up to the Great Eight. I guess it makes sense that a player with unusual talent would find the most unusual cure to age-related decline: getting older.
Dylan Strome registered an assist on Ovi's first goal of the game, extending an impossible streak that saw Strome post a helper on each of Ovi's first 11 goals this season. That streak was broken shortly after as #12 was scored without Strome. Still, Ovi's new-school sidekick ranks seventh in league scoring with 26 points over 17 games. He's only been held off the scoresheet twice this season.
Now, the team's 5on5 shooting percentage while Strome and Ovi are on the ice is double what you'd expect, which suggests regression is coming and that this torrid scoring pace won't last all year. Sell high if you can.
Concerns of unsustainable shooting percentages extend to Aliaksei Protas, Rasmus Sandin and Jakob Chychrun. All three of those players found the scoresheet on Sunday and have been in strong form lately, but the numbers suggest their current play will be hard to maintain long term. Shooting percentages aside, the Capitals aren't getting enough credit for a league-best offense that's scoring 4.24 goals per game. The Caps boast a 12-4-1 record that currently ranks fifth in the league.
Playing his first game back in the city he used to call home, Logan Thompson put on a show worthy of the Las Vegas Strip. He stopped 39 of the 41 shots the Golden Knights threw his way, helping Washington secure its first-ever victory in Vegas.
Also up against a former team, Ilya Samsonov did not enjoy the same success. Facing just 24 shots, he allowed four goals. After posting a save percentage of .918 or better in his first three starts for the Golden Knights, his last three starts have feature a save percentage of .885 or worse.
Heading into the season, as we discussed whether Shea Theodore or Noah Hanifin would quarterback Vegas' top power-play unit, it was obviously a no-brainer that the team's top-scoring blueliner nearly a quarter-way through the season would be… Alex Pietrangelo. An assist on Sunday gives Pietrangelo 14 points through 18 games, which ranks eighth among league defensemen. A lack of power-play time has me skeptical that a nearly 35-year-old Pietrangelo can score at this rate all year, so I'd sell high if the opportunity presents itself.
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This season's New York Rangers have been characterized by poor defensive play, usually bailed out by spectacular goaltending. That theme of strong netminding continued on Sunday as Jonathan Quick posted a 24-save shutout over the Kraken. Quick has proven to be an excellent backup and reliable spot-start option in fantasy leagues. He's allowed a total of three goals across his four starts this season.
Alexis Lafrenière was the beneficiary of a beautiful feed from Artemi Panarin for the game's first goal, which also held up as the game winner. With 14 points in 16 games, Lafrenière is scoring at a 72-point pace, building on last year's 57-point breakout.
The third member of that line – which was so good last year – is Vincent Trocheck. He's in a bit of a slump right now, with just four points in his past 11 games. However, he's a good player that will continue seeing exposure to other good players – at both even-strength and on the power play. I imagine his fortunes will improve as the season progresses.
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It's been a disappointing season for the Predators, who entered Sunday's game with a league-worst 2.28 goals per game. Of course, they've suffered from a bit of bad luck at 5on5, sporting a league-worst shooting percentage of 4.83%. This team has a lot of shooting talent, so I imagine their luck will turn as the season continues.
Although their 5on5 offense has struggled, their power-play has been great, sporting an expected goals rate that rivals Colorado for best in the league (via NaturalStatTrick). Two man-advantage markers from Steven Stamkos led Nashville to a 5-3 win over Vancouver on Sunday. It's crazy to see that 80% (8/10) of Stamkos' points this season have come on the power play. Two even-strength points in 19 games is way too low for a player of his caliber that's still getting good deployment. I expect the next three quarters will feature a lot more offense from the longtime Lightning forward. Buy low if you can.
To give you some more insight into Nashville's even-strength scoring woes, Roman Josi's goal on Sunday was the first 5v5 goal Jonathan Marchessault was on the ice for. It only took 19 games and nearly 250 minutes of ice time…
Kiefer Sherwood made a mark on this game by scoring a goal against his former team. We're used to see him making a mark in other ways as he currently leads the league in hits.
After nine games without a point, Brady Skjei finally registered an assist on Sunday. I think most agree that last year's 47-point output looks like an outlier against the backdrop of Skjei's career production. Something around the 35-point mark seems more realistic for this year.
With an assist against Nashville, Erik Brännström now has four points in his last four games. He's not seeing enough opportunity to be a must-add in fantasy leagues, but it certainly seems like he's finding a home in Vancouver.
His overall production still leaves a lot to be desired, but Elias Pettersson is starting to look like himself again. After potting a patented power-play one-timer on Sunday, Pettersson now has five goals in his last seven games. Assuming he's healthy, the last three quarters should yield much more offense than the first.
Kevin Lankinen had a strong start to the season, but he's struggled in three of his last four starts. Fortunately, reports indicate Thatcher Demko could be back within the next few weeks, which would provide a massive boost to this Canucks' team.
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Thanks for reading! Hope you have an awesome week ahead 😊