Lining Up: Colorado’s Re-Tooled Top Six; Robertson’s Struggles Continue; Skinner’s Minimal Role; Bjugstad’s Fantasy Value
Peter Ryell
2024-11-19
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! This week will do a deep dive into Colorado's recent line combinations since the team has received an influx of talent in addition to a couple of noteworthy players in good or poor situations.
Let's dive in.
Colorado
With reinforcements finally coming to bolster the Colorado lineup, now seems like an opportune moment to see how returning players have been integrated back into the fold. Let's take a look at the top six lineups at even strength and the top power play.
Last night, Colorado went with the following top two lines:
Nathan MacKinnon – Jonathan Drouin – Artturi Lehkonen
Valeri Nichushkin – Mikko Rantanen – Casey Mittelstadt
Right off the hop, we know MacKinnon and Rantanen are studs and have continued to produce as usual this season. Rantanen has 27 points in 19 games and is on pace for 117 points this season, his fifth season in a row producing at or above a 100-point pace. Meanwhile, MacKinnon is on pace for nearly 150 points and is set to replicate last year when he posted 140 points. No notes here, if they are on your roster, you already know, if not, then better luck at the draft table next year! As you can see, both of Colorado's superstars were split up last night in an effort to spread the wealth so who is able to benefit from lining up alongside either player?
After returning on November 5th from an injury, Lehkonen has resumed his usual spot on a line with MacKinnon. Last season he spent about a third of his time at even strength with MacKinnon and a quarter of his time with both MacKinnon and Rantanen. Additionally, he was a fixture on the top power play unit last year, averaging close to three minutes of PPTOI. In fact, since his arrival in Colorado he has been steadily deployed in a top six role and that has not changed this season. If anything, early returns show that he has increased this role, so far averaging over 23 minutes a night and a career-high 75% of the power play share, giving him six points in his first seven games or a 70-point pace over a full season. Given the frequency he plays with MacKinnon at both even strength and on the power play, he should the be top target to have on your roster outside of the team's three superstars. At only 67% rostered in Yahoo leagues he may even be available off the waiver wire.
The next target should be Casey Mittelstadt. He has been holding down the fort while much of Colorado's forward depth recovers, notching 18 points in 19 games to start the year including a goal and an assist last night after only one assist in his previous five games. He was seen on the second line with Rantanen but crucially, and despite the return of Nichushkin, Mittelstadt has so far held onto his spot on the top power play unit where he recorded his assist. Holding this spot will be crucial to him maintaining a near point-per-game pace for the rest of the season as he has averaged nearly four minutes on this unit or an over 80% share, which helps to explain his career-high 19:29 in TOI so far. Even with the power play time, that number will likely not hold now that more players have returned, but it should keep him on track for a career season. Plus, at 38% rostered in Yahoo leagues, it makes him a slightly more enticing option for your roster at the moment then our next player.
It may seem surprising on paper that Nichushkin is rostered in 60% of Yahoo leagues compared to Mittelstadt based on the fact that Nichushkin has spent in his last two seasons with over a third of the power play share on that top unit, however until he can retake that spot from Mittelstadt there is cause for concern. Aside from off-ice issues that led to him entering the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program during the playoffs, he has missed nearly sixty games over his last two seasons combined. Despite being on a near point-per-game pace last season, it may take some time for him to adjust and become reacquainted with the league and his team. This is not a recommendation to drop Nichushkin for Mittlestadt but more so to hold onto Mittelstadt if you have him (or stream him in) and to temper expectations for Nichushkin to immediately start producing like he did last season.
The last player within the top six forwards at even strength is Drouin who, despite seeing solid deployment last season on the top power play unit, now has to be viewed as firmly behind the above three forwards for meaningful time with the man advantage. In lieu of that, Drouin should still have consistent top six deployment which based on last night's line combinations, may include good exposure to MacKinnon. However, 19 of his 56 points last season came on the power play. Without that number to help, his even strength production will need to make up that difference if he is to repeat a near 60-point pace and the underlying analytics do not support that scenario.
Now for a couple of quick hits:
Bad news for Jason Robertson owners as he was dropped down to the fourth line, yes fourth, with Steel and Bäck. He has really struggled this season with only eight points in 17 games and one in his last seven while averaging under 18 minutes a night for the first time in three seasons. He was also on the second power play unit. No doubt this will be temporary but it's hard to see how his production could improve from the fourth line.
Also on the bad news front, if owners have been holding onto Jeff Skinner it may finally be time to let go as last night he was on the fourth line with Derek Ryan and Vasily Podkolzin and has averaged just 11:40 of TOI during a seven-game cold streak. With fourth line deployment and no power play time with Edmonton's top unit, the fantasy outlook is grim.
On the flip side, Nick Bjugstad has been playing on the top line with Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller recently and has three goals in three games to show for it. He would only be recommended in deeper leagues but Utah has three games still to come this week including a back-to-back on Saturday and Sunday if your roster has the room.