Ramblings: Updates on Point, Thompson, Letang, and Eriksson Ek; Makar Continues Hot Start; Changes in Market Share of Shots – November 19
Michael Clifford
2024-11-19
As of Tuesday, it has been over two weeks since Brayden Point was in the lineup for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and any injury lasting more than a week always raises some eyebrows. The Lightning, and fantasy managers, got some good news on Monday, though, as he was back at practice. He was skating on his usual top line with Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel:
Point started the season with eight goals in 12 games and may be ready to go for Tuesday night's game in Pittsburgh.
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Speaking of Pittsburgh, Kris Letang was not at team practice on Monday:
Letang missed a pair of games on the weekend with an illness, so that he's been away for this long is notable. Hopefully it's nothing serious and he's back soon, though it seems unlikely he'll be in the lineup for the matchup against Tampa Bay.
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An update from Buffalo on Tage Thompson and Jordan Greenway:
Coach Lindy Ruff has said that Thompson should be good to go for Wednesday night's game in Los Angeles, and it sure seems that way. Greenway missed a game on the weekend. Tuch wasn't at practice, but it appears he'll be fine for Wednesday.
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Positive updates on both Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin:
Minnesota didn't look very good without them on Saturday night, but they seem to be on track for the game in St. Louis on Thursday night.
Also, Declan Chisholm was running Minnesota's top PP unit in practice with Brock Faber on the second unit. Something to keep an eye on.
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Columbus went into Boston on Monday night and laid a good thrashing on the Bruins by a 5-1 margin. The Blue Jackets got three first-period goals from Dmitri Voronkov, Mathieu Olivier (SH), and James van Riemsdyk to get out to a healthy, early lead, and they never looked back. Justin Danforth (SH) and Yegor Chinakhov scored in the third period to salt the game away.
Charlie Coyle (PP) got the lone goal for the Bruins.
It was another excellent game for Sean Monahan, who had two assists, six shots, and two hits while the Jackets had an 11-4 shot advantage with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Monahan now has six goals, nine assists, and 55 shots through 18 games played. A very solid start to his campaign.
Voronkov's goal was his third since re-joining the lineup at the start of the month, a nine-game span. He now has 20 career NHL goals in 84 games played, doing so while averaging just over 13:30 per game. He is starting to round into a very solid contributor, though the lack of ice time is a concern.
Zach Werenski had another solid multi-cat night with an assist, three shots, a block, and two PIMs. Dante Fabbro had an assist with two shots, two blocks, two PIMs, and a hit, and he now has three points in four games since joining Columbus.
Elvis Merzlikins was excellent in net, stopping 29 of 30 shots faced for the win. His save percentage is up to .905 on the season.
Jeremy Swayman had another poor game, allowing five goals on 29 shots, though the team has not been helping him much.
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Philadelphia scored two goals two minutes apart in the third period, but they were down three goals at the time and they couldn't quite come all the way back, suffering a 3-2 loss to Colorado.
Cale Makar had another big game, scoring twice (once on the PP), totaling five shots and three blocks. He is now up to eight goals and 27 points in 19 games this season as his otherworldly production rolls on unabated.
Casey Mittelstadt had a goal, an assist (PP), two shots, and a hit in the win. He now has 18 points in 19 games, and it's a wonder how long he'll hold onto his top PP role, but if he can keep that spot, he has point-per-game potential this season.
Mikko Rantanen had two assists (one on the PP), four shots, two PIMs, and a hit.
Justus Annunen stopped 24 of 26 shots for the win, while Aleksei Kolosov allowed three goals on 29 shots in the loss.
Owen Tippett and Tyson Foerster had the goals for the Flyers. Helge Grans made his Flyers debut and has an assist, two shots, two blocks, two PIMs, and a hit in 16:11 of ice time.
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Sam Montembeault managed his second shutout of the season as the Montreal Canadiens toppled Edmonton 3-0. Montembeault stopped all 30 shots he faced, and his save percentage is now up to .906, with six wins and a 2.85 goals against average. Considering his draft position in September, it hasn't been that bad so far.
Brendan Gallagher scored his eighth goal of the season, Kaiden Guhle got his second, and Jake Evans added an empty-net tally. Guhle had that goal, four shots, and two blocks in a good multi-cat night. He got stung with a shot and left the game briefly, but did return so hopefully he's no worse for the wear.
Calvin Pickard was in net for Edmonton and allowed two goals on 24 shots.
Not for nothing, but over Montreal's last 10 games, they are 10th in the league by shots against per minute. That is vastly improved defence from earlier in the season, so maybe there's more upside for Montembeault moving forward.
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Lukas Dostal had a great goaltending performance of his own, saving 34 of 36 shots in Anaheim's 4-2 win in Dallas. Dostal now has a .924 save percentage and 2.69 goals against average in his 13 starts, and a .906 career save percentage in 71 starts (80 appearances). He looks every bit the goaltender of the future for the Ducks.
Cutter Gauthier (PP) scored for the second game in a row while Olen Zellweger, Brett Leason, and Jackson LaCombe also got on the board. Gauthier had an assist, too, with four shots and a hit, though he still skated under 14 minutes so a bit of caution there.
Leason had a goal, two assists (one on the PP), three shots, a block, and a hit in the win. He has seven points, six blocks, and 15 hits in 12 games.
Zellweger finished the game with that one goal on three shots, two blocks, two PIMs, and a hit, pushing his point total to eight in 16 games.
Matt Duchene and Esa Lindell scored for Dallas. Casey DeSmith got the start and allowed four goals on 27 shots in the loss.
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Alex Ovechkin scored two more goals (one on the PP) on Monday night, giving him 15 goals in his last 15 games, as Washington went into Utah and blew the doors off for a 6-2 win. Dylan Strome had a goal and an assist while Aliaksei Protas also scored to give the top line a four-goal night. Strome is up to 28 points in 18 games on the season.
Ovechkin left the game in the third period with a leg injury. There have been no updates but it didn't look great at the time.
Nic Dowd and Brandon Duhaime had the other goals for the Caps. Charlie Lindgren stopped 24 of 26 shots in the win.
John Carlson had a great multi-cat night with a power play assist, three shots, five blocks, and two PIMs.
Charlie Lindgren picked up the win, stopping 24 of 26 shots.
Nick Bjugstad and Jack McBain had the goals for Utah. Connor Ingram was pulled after allowing four goals on 13 shots.
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San Jose pulled out a 5-4 overtime win at home to Detroit on Monday night. Macklin Celebrini did the honours by beating a pair of Red Wings and then finding a hole through goalie Cam Talbot:
Celebrini finished the game with that goal on six shots, and now has four goals and 29 shots in his eight games. That seems just fine.
William Eklund had a pair of goals (one on the PP), Luke Kunin scored, and Tyler Toffoli managed his ninth goal of the season. Eklund is up to four goals, 11 assists, 32 shots, 13 blocks, and 14 hits in 19 games. Not a bad start.
Jake Walman had a power play assist, three shots, three blocks, and two PIMs in another very good fantasy effort.
Mackenzie Blackwood got the start and the win. I suspect Askarov will get his first start of the season on Thursday as the Sharks have a back-to-back.
Dylan Larkin had a goal and an assist, Marco Kasper (PP) scored again, Alex DeBrincat tallied on the power play, and Michael Rasmussen scored Detroit's other goal. Larkin now has 11 goals in 18 games, though he is shooting 23%, so keep an eye on that.
Talbot allowed five goals on 34 shots in the loss.
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Players taking a lot of shots is usually a good thing for fantasy owners. However, what is also important is who is taking the shots when they're on the ice. For that, we're going to look at which players have seen improvements or declines in market share, or the percentage of the team's shots a specific player is taking. We are going to look at a couple forwards and a couple defencemen. These numbers are at all strengths and require at least 800 minutes played in 2023-24 and 150 minutes played this season. Data from Natural Stat Trick.
Vegas Boys
The largest jump has come from Chicago's Ryan Donato, but what is interesting is that two of the four largest leaps in share of team shot attempts from 2023-24 both come from Vegas:
Starting with William Karlsson, he has played just 10 of Vegas's 18 games, so a little grain of salt here. He has also seen very inconsistent ice time levels with as many games above 19 minutes (2) as below 14 minutes. That has led to an eight-year low in ice time per game at 15:54 (has been above 17:20 for each season of his Vegas tenure). However, because his shot attempt rate is by far a career-high mark, he's averaging more shots per game than he ever has (2.8). If he can keep anywhere close to that level, and earn some more ice time, he can be a 30-goal scorer this season even with the time missed.
That is a bit different from Brett Howden. One reason he has seen a market share increase is not only because he's shooting more (he is), but the team is shooting less with him on the ice – his shot attempt rate has increased 21% while the team's shot rate with him on the ice was 10% higher last year. His shot attempt rate still isn't high, sitting in the 21st percentile of the league, so he has a long way to go. He is also shooting 20%, which isn't likely to sustain. It is a nice start for him with seven goals in 18 games, but there should be doubts he's more than a 20-goal scorer this season. However, if he can do that while putting up 120 hits and 50 blocks, he'll have good multi-cat value. It is just a matter of maintaining both the increased shot and ice time levels.
The Other Lindholm
At the other end of the spectrum is Boston's Elias Lindholm, who has seen one of the largest drops in market share compared to his rate across his Calgary and Vancouver tenures last season:
What is worrisome is this is not a case like Howden where the team is shooting less – Boston is taking nearly 65 shot attempts per 60 minutes with him on the ice compared to his mark of 61.8 last year. His shot attempt rate is in the 12th percentile of the league, and his current pace would mean four straight years of decline in this regard. There is a very good reason he's averaging 1.4 shots per game, and this is a huge concern for his fantasy value, beyond all the other concerns that have popped up.
Anaheim's Offence
There are some interesting names at the top of the improvement list for defencemen, but Anaheim's Jackson LaCombe stood out:
The Ducks are shooting more with him on the ice at 5-on-5, he is shooting a lot more at 5-on-5, and his overall shot rate has improved from 0.8 per game last season to 1.4 this season despite less ice time. It should be noted, though, that he's now skated at least 20 minutes in three straight games. The worry is healthy scratches, because that has happened to some Ducks defencemen this season, but LaCombe has three points and 21 blocks in 10 games. If he can stay in the lineup, there might be something here.
Vancouver's Top Pair
The largest decline from a defenceman is from Vancouver's top pair, though not the guy with the Norris Trophy in his cabinet:
With Filip Hronek on the ice, Vancouver is taking 69.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, an increase of nearly 10% from last season. However, Hronek's shot attempt rate was 26.5% higher last season, so his share is dropping. It makes sense, given how much Quinn Hughes is shooting, but it's lowered Hronek from 1.33 shots per game at 5-on-5 to an even 1.0. Those changes are largely mirrored at all strengths, too, given Hronek's modest drop in power play role. The good news is he's hitting a lot more, but a drop in shot rate combined with low power play production means a meagre fantasy option.