Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Believe it or not, we're approaching the quarter point of the season. Time does indeed fly. For fantasy purposes, we're at a point where enough games have been played to wonder if what we're seeing is short term variance – good or bad – or an accurate respesentation of what to expect for the remainder of the season from players. With those things in mind, on tap this week are Brady Tkachuk, Brandon Hagel, and Casey Mittelstadt. It's been a while since the last Goldipucks, so are you still dialed in enough to be able to correctly deduce which of the three has been too hot to date, as well as who has been too cold, and who's production has been just right? As usual, stop here and decide, then find out if the data agrees with your views. Stats for the players are current through November 15th games.

Brady Tkachuk (16 GP, 9 G, 9 A, 65 SOG, 18:30 TOI, 7 PPPts, 3:15 PP, 63.4% PP%)

Another of former NHL star Keith Tkachuk's sons, Brady was grabbed fourth overall by Ottawa in 2018-19 and was in the NHL to stay that same season. Poolies were no doubt impressed by him scoring at a 52 point page as an 19-year-old rookie, but less so when he spun his wheels the next two seasons. Since 2021-22, his production has yo-yoed from solid to very good, with him being due to have a very good season again for 2024-25 if the same pattern continues to hold true to form. But thus far Tkachuk is scoring at a level a good bit above his prior best. Is it just a hot start, or can it be sustained or even improved upon? Between Tkachuk improving on his own, and the team around him doing so, what we're seeing is likely the real deal for Tkachuk.

In looking at Tkachuk's numbers, his SOG per game rate is at 4.1 per game, which is a bit below the 4.4 it was last season but similar to the 4.2 it was in 2022-23. What's changed though is his SH%, which was 10.4% last season, 10.1% the prior season, and even 10.2% the season before that when Tkachuk had yet to reach the 4.0 SOG per game mark. Thus far for 2024-25 though, his SH% is 13.8%. Much of that has come on PPGs, where he is below one PP SOG per game, indicating he's being more selective about the shots he takes with the man advantage, but in doing so has upped his accuracy considerably. He might be able to keep up this higher SH%, and, in turn, the added points that come with it.

It's also notable that the Sens are clicking on the PP at a rate of just under 30%, which is understandable since not only are all their big guns finally healthy, but players like Tkachuk, plus Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, and Drake Batherson are now past their breakout thresholds, such that they should be clicking at their peak rate. Thus, the rising tide that is lifting Tkachuk's boat on the PP appears to be sustainable.

Speaking of breakout thresholds, this is the first full season for Tkachuk after he hit his midway through 2023-24. Not surprisingly, Tkachuk scored at a point per game pace after the midway point of 2023-24, suggesting his BT was indeed meaningful. To see him taking it to yet another level is not surprising and, in turn, likely sustainable. 

Tkachuk's OZ%, which dipped a bit in 2023-24, is back up to 55.5%, further underscoring why what he's doing can continue. Also, in two of his past three seasons his secondary assist percentage was amazingly under 25%, while in his best season to date, namely the 2022-23 campaign, it was 39.6%. So far for 2024-25 it is 33.3%. Given the style of game Tkachuk plays, he's not likely going to be much higher than 40%; however, seeing him at a number closer to his prior best season is also encouraging.

Tkachuk's 5×5 team shooting percentage is also 9.4%, which, although certainly not very high, would be a career best if it was maintained. If anything it should go up, as his PDO is a very low 958, after averaging 989 over the past three seasons. This suggests Tkachuk, if anything, might be in for even better luck. If that occurs, it would allay concerns – if any – of his PP SH% being as far higher than it's previously been. Although, as I noted above, that is not as much of a red flag to me in view of it coinciding with him shooting somewhat less with the man advantage.

No question Tkachuk's TOI per game is on the low side for someone producing at his rate, but the result is him leading the league in SOG per 60 minutes. If last season is any indication, that is a very good thing, considering that other than him and Owen Tippett, last season the top six in SOG/60 were David Pastrnak, Filip Forsberg, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews. They all averaged 3.6+ points per 60 minutes, and lo and behold we see that Tkachuk's rate for 2024-25 thus far is 3.7 per 60 minutes. So not only does this futher serve to validate his production rate, but bodes well for him going forward.

Tkachuk's IPPs have never been his strong point; however, both his IPP on the PP and IPP overall are a good bit below what they were last season. But the reason that's the case is the Sens are more productive (3.44 goals per game this season so far, versus 3.11 last season), meaning he doesn't need to get a point on as high a percentage of goals as he did last season to score as well. And if I had to wager on which is more likely happen, his IPPs going up versus the Sens' scoring rate going down, I'd pick the former.

It seems like Tkachuk made a leap coinciding with his breakout threshold, and it's boosted him this season as well. Tkachuk's PP SH% is a bit high, even accounting for fewer PP SOG, but his 5×5 team SH% is a career best yet somehow his PDO is lagging. In all, I think the collective data paints the picture of a player who is at his appropriate scoring rate, meaning Tkachuk's 2023-24 production has been JUST RIGHT, with a rating of 5.25, suggesting he's likely to be at or near a 90 point pace when all is said and done with 2024-25.

Casey Mittelstadt (18 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 41 SOG, 19:46 TOI, 8 PPPts, 3:57 PP, 82.2% PP%)

A former top-ten pick, Mittelstadt seemed to be in a chicken and egg situation early on, as he didn't get a lot of time and thus didn't get a lot of points which in turn didn't earn him more ice time. Once Jack Eichel got hurt in 2020-21, Mittelstadt's TOI rose, including on the all-important PP. The result wasn't superb, as he barely bested the point per every other game mark, then  next season regressed despite more ice time, likely due to the emergence of Tage Thompson. Then he rose to nearly a 60-point pace despite Thompson exploding and the increased role of Dylan Cozens. With a surplus at center, Buffalo dealt Mittelstadt to the Avs, where he landed with a thud in the regular season but did tally nine points in 11 playoff games. For 2024-25 thus far, Mittelstadt has seen an explosion in his ice time and has produced at a 73-point pace. Is this him finally living up to expectations? Yes indeed, and signs suggest it realistically could get even better than it is now.

Admittedly it is already a jump from his previous career best scoring rate for Mittelstadt to be where he is now; but it's important to realize he was able to produce at nearly a 60-point rate despite taking the ice for four minutes less per game in 2022-23, when  he scored at a 2.7/60 points rate, which is exactly where he is now. It's why TOI is so important. Beyond that, he's shooting more than ever, yet his SH% is on a par with 2023-24. That seemingly takes care of justifying him scoring at the rate his is now; but how exactly does he improve on that rate, especially when he had half his prior career best in PPPts – eight – after only 15 games, versus it having taken him 82 games to get 16 in 2022-23?

For starters, the absences of healthy bodies had caused Mittlestadt to take the ice at ES for the most part with the likes of Logan O'Connor, Nikolai Kovalenko, Jeol Kiviranta, and Ivan Ivan. With all respect to those players, I think it's safe to say that none were envisioned to in the top six on a regular basis. Now the Avs have back not only Valeri Nichushkin but also Jonathan Drouin. Lo and behold they were Mittelstadt's linemates upon their return. Even if one of them was to go to the top line, that would mean either Mikko Rantanen or Artturi Lehkonen would join Mittelstadt and the other of the two. Or to put it another way, Mittelstadt finally has some talent to play alongside him at ES.

But will that really matter much? Considering Mittelstadt's 5×5 team SH% is 7.6% thus far and his PDO an insanely low 936, I'd say the answer is a resounding yes. The only issue is his overall IPP is just 51.6%, when one would think due to him centering less talented players it should, if anything, be higher than his norm, rather than a percentage that would mark a career low. While admittedly that is a bit eyebrow raising, I'd say it is trumped by the other metrics being so low, plus Mittelstadt having only three secondary assists out of ten total. Simply put, he should be able to score more at ES now, perhaps quite a bit more.

But won't the return of these two jeopardize Mittelstadt's PP spot? Seemingly no, as in their first game back he remained on PP1. Yes, if all of Colorado's forwards are in the line-up, only two of Mittelstadt, Nichushkin, Drouin, and Lehkonen will be on PP1, and Nichushkin is tried and tested, so really that means one for the other three. But with Colorado having the third best PP as I write this, and Mittelstadt being a regular on PP1 thus far, it's likely his spot to lose. Being on PP1 for Colorado is pay dirt, as they are one of just four teams (Toronto, Edmonton, and Minnesota being the others) where four forwards each took the ice for, on average, at least two-thirds of the team's PP time in each of the last two seasons.

Mittelstadt has produced, as noted above, at a PP scoring rate far above his career best. But can it continue, even if he stays on PP1? Quite possibly, as his PP IPP is only 44.4%. Although on a PP with a trio of Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen, PPPts will be harder to come by, there will be more of them, as indicated by the team's conversion rate thus far. Let's not forget that Nazem Kadri scored at a 100-point pace in 2021-22 for the Avs by centering the second line but also due to a spot on PP1, which in his case translated to 29 PPPts in just 71 games, from a player who'd topped out at 18 in 79 games previously.

If it seems Mittlestadt has hit the hockey equivalent of the lottery, he has, as he's already above his career best scoring pace despite having played at ES with players well beneath his skill level, a problem solved now with the return of Nichushkin and Drouin. Mittlestadt seems like he's sewn up a spot on the Avs' PP1, which should continue to pay dividends. As such, his production thus far has been TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 2.0, as I think he's a shoo in for point per game numbers, with a chance for 90+ pace if he remains on PP1.

Brandon Hagel (15 GP, 8 G, 8 A, 38 SOG, 20:32 TOI, 1 PPPts, 3:02 PP, 60.6% PP%)

A late round pick by Buffalo, Hagel didn't stick there, or with the Habs, where he was briefly, but then found a home with the Hawks, where he had 37 points in 55 games but was then traded the Bolts, where he didn't manage even a point every third game to finish that season. In 2022-23 he somehow landed on the top line, and thrived, to the tune of 64 points, then went out and topped that with 75 last season. Despite the addition of Jake Guentzel pushing Hagel off the top line, he's doing better than ever. Is it that he was this good, and not being carried by Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point? In a word, no.

Those who felt Hagel was unfairly labeled as a passenger on the top line look to be on their way to being proven correct. But looks can be deceiving, and they most certainly are here.

Hagel has added over a minute of TOI per game, but also is averaging two minutes more of PPTOI per contest. How is that possible? That sounds fantastic, no? Sounds and is are two very different things in this case. Despite these TOI gains, Hagel's OZ% has nosedived from 50.9% to 38.5%. If that sounds low, it is. Yes, over 75 of the 382 forwards who've played in 10+ games have an OZ% lower than Hagel's. But of them only three are averaging a point per every other game, with the highest scoring rate among them being 58 points. If we focus on the 43 forwards who, as I write this, have played 10+ games and are averaging a point per game or better in scoring, a mere one Nico Hischier at 44.8% – has an OZ% below 50%, and Hischier is a proven scorer who many regard as one of the next great two-way centers in the NHL. So it's pretty clear that Hagel is far exceeding what could reasonably be expected for someone scoring at the rate he is now.

Then how is Hagel managing to amass so many points thus far? Although he's always been an accurate shooter, his 21.1% rate is well above the 15.4% rate he had entering this season. He's shooting that high despite a career best 2.5 SOG per game. If anything, the expectation would be for him to shoot worse now that he's shooting more. The net result is about three more goals than he should have, although perhaps one or two would've been repackaged as assists.

But maybe not, as somehow his overall IPP is down from 70.8% to 61.5%. Optimists might suggest this is too low for him, and once it gets back to normal it will offset some of the stats that are running too high. But in truth Hagel's OZ% was 64.0% and 62.0% 2022-23 and 2021-22 respectively, meaning the 70.8% last season likely was an outlier.

If you think the data suggesting unsustainably high production is done, you'd be mistaken, as Hagel's team 5×5 shooting percentage is 15.6%, which, to give you and idea of just how high that is, in the past two seasons cumulatively a mere four forwards had a 13.0% or higher rate, and no one hit 14.0%. Thus there is even more data suggesting that Hagel's production is due to come crashing down to earth.

But what about the fact that he's on PP1 for the most part yet has a mere one PPPt to show for it and a 16.6% PP IPP? The issue is Hagel's PP IPP is so low as to not be unsustainably unlucky, but instead to show he is simply not cut out to be a scorer on the PP. He's basically a body out there. As I write this, 102 players have taken the ice for more PP minutes than Hagel, yet less than 10% of them have fewer PP SOG than the five that he has. Roughly the same percentage also have a PP IPP under 40%.

Let's not forget that Tampa used Nick Paul, who is still with the team, on PP1 for most of lsat season. Thus, it's not like Hagel has no leash, especially since last season the Bolts had the best PP in the league, clicking at a 28.6% rate, while for this season thus far they rank all the way down at 18th, at just 18.8%. Yes, they lost Steven Stamkos, who was a huge part of their PP success; however, chances are it is only a matter of time before the team tries to right its PP ship, and given how things stand as of now, the first thing they'd likely do is take Hagel off the top unit.

To sum it up, Hagel is so far above and beyond the level at which he should be producing, it's clear he's been TOO HOT. The only question is by how much? In this case, Ihe is likely more of a 60 point player even if he somehow manages to stay on PP1. Thus, he gets a rating of 9.25. If you're in a one year league or even a keeper and you own Hagel, the first thing you ought to do after reading this is start trying to do whatever you can to trade him before his stats start to nosedive.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.