This week we are going to run through a pretty classic exercise and look at a bunch of cold players and determine our level of general concern. Unfortunately, we will not exactly be answering the drop or not question as that really is going to depend on the categories of the league and not to mention the depth of the league in question. We will hit on what each player provides and whether or not there is any reason to believe that the current cold snap is just a passing phase.

In order to write the article this week we are focusing on the Frozen Tools Home page. There is a very handy overview for each team on that page. In each team section there is a heading for hot and cold players. The list of players below is pulled from the cold section. Alternatively, when you run a Dobber Report there is a symbol next to their name that indicates if they are hot or cold at the moment. Looking at the Frozen Tools home page I pulled a bunch of interesting names for review, but in order to actually do the research I am looking through their player profile pages at things like their Career Stats, Game Log, and Advanced Stats tabs. All data was reviewed on November 21st.

We have a bit of a theme for the first group, our aged veterans. Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Kane, and Brad Marchand are all quite cold at the moment.

Evgeni Malkin actually has 19 points in 21 games so at an initial glance seems to be doing fine. Unfortunately, he had 11 points in his first five games and has really flipped the script recently only producing five points over his last 11 games. That is capped off by only two shots over his most recent three games. The good news is that he hasn't lost any real deployment over this time period; his time on ice numbers and power-play numbers still look good. Even though his most recent games haven't been as strong he is still shooting almost three times a game over these 11 games. The biggest difference is his points participation number (IPP), which has been 45% over these recent games, but during those first five games it was up at 100%. Overall, on the season his is on a 74 point pace and all of the underlying numbers seem to generally support production in that range. Moral of this story is that this recent cold stretch should be an aberration, though certainly watch those shot rates and for any changes in ice time. He is 38 years old and going to hit a wall at some point and those will likely be the first indications that something is going wrong.

Patrick Kane has the same general concerns as he is 36 years old and one season removed from major off season surgery. Unlike Malkin, he did not have a torrid start to the season but is similarly cold with only three points over his last nine games. His time on ice numbers are a bit inconsistent but also potentially worrying. Over his first ten games he has three games at 17 minutes or less overall. Three of his last four have been at or below that 17-minute mark. This could be just a variability thing as there were examples scattered through those first 10 games, but like we said with Malkin dropping ice time would certainly be a first sign of trouble. He has been averaging two shots a game over this recent stretch, which is consistent with his full season numbers, but is a full shot per game less than 2023-24 where he returned from that surgery. He is also down almost a full minute of ice time from last year as well. In positive news some of his other underlying numbers indicate that he should be doing better. His personal and team shooting percentages with him on the ice should be higher, and his point participation numbers are low as well. Assuming a return to his career norms, a 70-point pace could theoretically still be in the cards even with his reduced shot and time on ice numbers. That is a big assumption though. If his playing time is indeed falling, or if at 36 he is not quite the player he was, we could be looking at something closer to his Ranger days where a 60-point pace was counted as a success.

Completing this over-35 trio is Brad Marchand. He also has had significant surgery recently. He makes the list in slightly less dramatic fashion than Kane or Malkin with three pointless games in a row and only three points in his last seven. There aren't really any obvious signs within that stretch to point to, but overall, he is looking at a 53-point pace on the season, which would be his lowest pace in ten seasons. Shot rates and deployment look pretty consistent thus far but he (and a lot of Bruins) is really getting hit with some bad variance. Like with Kane above his personal and team shooting percentages are low, very low actually. He is doing better with his points participation numbers, but if you were to regress those shooting percentage numbers to his recent career averages, he could still be looking at a 70-point pace going forward.

Moral of the story here is we have three aging vets who are currently cold, but where 70-point paces are certainly possible going forward. Of the group though my biggest question mark would be Kane.

Moving on, our next group is a bit of a combination of up and comers and guys who should have been pretty consistent.

Wyatt Johnston did have a two-point night on November 20th so maybe technically doesn't fit anymore but prior to that he had two points in 12 games so I am going to count that as pretty cold. In his most recent game, he was back on a top line with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson and it sounds like that line was actually playing like Dallas' top line, which has not necessarily been the case for a lot of the season. It is great that he was back there because he has been bounced around the lineup a bit thus far on 2024-25. Overall, he is averaging more ice time, shooting a bit more, but only putting up a 41-point pace. He has been impacted by some bad variance though and maybe deserves something closer to a 60-point pace, which is essentially where he landed last season. Thus far the anticipated breakout certainly hasn't happened, but if he can stick on this top line and/or even better displace Logan Stankoven on the top power play then a breakout can still be in the cards.

Kevin Fiala got off to a good start but is now pointless in his last six games. Time on ice and power play role have not been a concern during this recent stretch and he is still shooting, though slightly less than during his initial run. Overall, he is on a 52-point pace currently but already has seven points on the power play. He is seeing some bad variance though so even if he loses out on a point or two on the power-play he was due for some better luck at even strength. It looks like he still should have been in the ballpark of a 70-point pace given how he has played thus far. He has lost some overall time on ice though, so I am keeping an eye on his shot rates. If those drop at all it, and he regresses to his usual luck on the power play it might be harder for Fiala to reach a 70-point pace going forward.

And finally, Troy Terry. Anaheim has been a bit of a mess this season. They played around with a top nine, which has not worked and while that experiment seems to have ended, Terry is still cold with only two points in his last six games. Overall, he is on a 55 point pace but has generally maintained his deployment and his shot rates. Based on his recent history with similar numbers he should still be pacing out between 60 and 70 points. He, like so many of these other players, is also experiencing some bad variance. His team shooting percentage at five on five is quite low. If that were to regress and some more goals can be scored while he is on the ice a 60-65 pace looks very possible. While it does look like his linemates are due for better luck we are talking about Anaheim and scoring is not a guarantee. A bounce back is a bit of a risk for Terry, but should be possible.

That is all for this week.

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