Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I'll be taking a look under the hood at some underperformers through the first quarter of the season. I'll examine their underlying metrics and give my opinion on their rest of season potential. A few underlying metrics I'll examine are individual shooting percentage (S%), on-ice S%, individual points percentage (IPP), per 60 rate stats, and the rate of shots on goal per shot attempt (or how much they are missing the net). Hopefully with this information you can make some important decisions in making some roster moves or trades involving these players.

Jason Robertson 

82 game current on-pace stats: 22 G, 30 A, 52 P, 9 PPP, 202 SOG, 73 Hits, 39 BLK, 17 PIM

Robertson was drafted in the third or fourth round in most leagues. He's been a big disappointment through 19 games so far. Looking under the hood is not too encouraging for a turnaround. His even strength ice time has been decreased by a half a minute per night compared to last season as Dallas seems to have an abundance of lethal weapons, essentially playing their top 9 equally at even strength. On top of the decrease in ice time, his shot attempt rates and SOG rates have dropped substantially this season, with no drops in S%, on-ice S% or IPP. At even strength, Robertson is essentially playing less, getting fewer offensive opportunities, and converting at consistent rates compared to his previous seasons, indicating no signs of improvement. Dallas is an elite team, especially in chance suppression, but they are deep and spread things out, which isn't great for fantasy.

On top of this, Dallas is essentially running two even power-play units, with PP2 out-converting PP1 by a large margin. Robertson's shot rates and conversion on the power play are consistent with previous season levels, but there's just not a high ceiling when there is no true PP1. I am expecting no big change in Robertson's production moving forward (maybe slight improvements in SOG/60 and Goals). I would not be buying low on Robertson here. I'm expecting Robertson to finish with around 230 SOG and 60 points this season (if he plays 82 games). If you own him and can take advantage of selling the buy-low window before he bursts into the 90-point guy he's been in the past, I'd be selling.

Wyatt Johnston

82 game current on-pace stats: 13 G, 30 A, 43 P, 13 PPP, 216 SOG, 43 Hits, 43 BLK, 17 PIM

Johnston is a different story than Robertson in Dallas. He was still drafted with very high expectations, likely going in the 6th or 7th round in most leagues with potential point-per-game expectations after he put up 21 goals, 41 points, and 128 shots in the final 40 games of last season. His current pace is very underwhelming for those expectations, but his underlying metrics suggest some improvement to come. First, he's receiving almost a whole minute more in PPTOI compared to last season. With the split power play units mentioned above, his PPP ceiling is capped, but his current production is sustainable and might even improve as his 7% PP S% regresses up. I'd expect him to finish with 15-18 PPP.

At even strength, he's seeing more TOI than last season (similar to his second half of last season where he was a point-per-game player). His shot attempt and shot rates have decreased so far this season, but he was pretty volatile in these stats last season, some stretches averaging 4-5 SOG per game, and some stretches averaging only 2. I'd expect his shot rates to generally improve to be similar to what they were last season. His lack of goals is very disappointing so far – this is largely due to a 5.7% S% at even strength. This number was 14.3% last season and 15.8% the season prior. There is no doubt that this number will start to regress back to those previous season rates and he'll pick up plenty more goals.

With Dallas spreading out the ice time, Johnston's ceiling is capped and he likely is not the point-per-game player some expected him to be, but he has much more in the tank than his current pace of 13 goals and 43 points. I think we can see a big resurgence in the highly talented Johnston. I'm expecting around a 35-goal pace the rest of the season, which would bring him to around 30 goals and 35 assists if he plays 82 games. With a quarter of the fantasy season done, he is a true buy-low candidate.

Mika Zibanejad

82 game current on-pace stats: 17 G, 43 A, 60 P, 13 PPP, 160 SOG, 13 Hits, 60 BLK, 26 PIM

Zibanejad is still putting up some respectable numbers so far this season, but many who drafted him in the 7th or 8th round were expecting better, especially on the power play. Zibanejad is an interesting case, where his even strength metrics are quite worrisome, but his power play metrics suggest improvement to come. At even strength, his TOI has decreased by a whole minute per game, having his line relegated to a true second line from the 1A/B it was in previous seasons. His shot rates and on-ice shot rates have also decreased, with no signs pointing to an improvement unless he and Chris Kreider get a nice boost from a better linemate than Reilly Smith (maybe Filip Chytil gets moved up?). He is also showing a high S% and IPP at even strength, indicating no "bad luck" and no improvements to come in these (maybe even some upcoming disappointment). I would not expect his even strength production to change much, but it is his power play production that I'd expect changes to come in.

He is still in a solidified spot on a true elite first power-play unit, commanding more than 70% of the Ranger’s PPTOI. The Rangers power play on the whole has been in the middle of the league in production at 22%. Last season they were one of the best at a 26% conversion. They also are near the bottom of the league in power play opportunities per game. This should change as they get more penalty calls their way. Overall, I'm expecting the Rangers to score more power-play goals than they currently are. Now let’s see if Zibanejad should be getting in on those future goals.

On the power play, Zibanejad's shot attempt rates are similar to previous seasons, firing close to 30 shot attempts per 60 minutes. However, his SOG rates have decreased as he is only hitting the net on 40% of his shot attempts. In his previous four seasons, this number has been between 50-60%. He also has 0 PPG so far, shooting 0%. His SOG per shot attempt rate should increase and his S% should definitely increase close to previous seasons (15-20%). One last metric to look at is IPP on the power play. Zibanejad is only getting a point on 37.5% of power play goals scored when he is on the ice. This number is normally between 55 and 85%. As all of these metrics should regress to Zibanejad's norms, his power-play production should improve. This makes Zibanejad a nice buy-low candidate. He's currently on pace for 13 PPP and 47 even strength points. I'm expecting him to finish with 25+ PPP, which can bring him above the 70-point mark.

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

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