Lining Up: New (Old) Line Combinations Under New (Old) Coaches in Boston and St. Louis
Peter Ryell
2024-11-26
Welcome back to another edition of Lining Up! With a couple of recent head coach changes, this week we will take a look at the line combinations now that both teams have played at least a game.
Let's dive in.
Boston
Head coach Jim Montgomery was let go last week and the team has since played two games under interim head coach Joe Sacco. Let's look at Saturday night's game against Detroit to see how the line combinations looked at even strength.
Justin Brazeau
The lineup has not changed too much between coaching tenures, but it is good for Justin Brazeau's fantasy value to see that he is still holding down a spot in the top six alongside Brad Marchand. He is more of an option in deeper leagues as he is only on pace for 37 points this season but over his last four games, he has two points and has increased his shot rate to just over two and a half per game. The line as a whole is cold (and most of Boston for that matter, hence the change in coach) so when (if?) that changes, he could stand to benefit from a few extra bounces.
On the flip side, bad news for Charlie Coyle owners as he was playing on the third line against Detroit. After notching 60 points in a full 82 games last year while lining up predominantly with some combination of Marchand, David Pastrnak or Jake DeBrusk, Coyle is now on pace for an abysmal 19 points. Without that exposure to the team's top players, he is not worth rostering.
On the power play against Detroit, a particularly brow-raising line combination was Mason Lohrei getting more time than Charlie McAvoy with the top unit. This has not continued through to practice this morning but will definitely be worth watching. Perhaps the brief opportunity was in recognition of his recent play, as Lohrei is up to four points in his last five games including two on the power play.
If this continues it will be great for Lohrei's value moving forward but will come at the expense of McAvoy who is already on pace for 26 points this season despite still averaging 24 minutes a night and seeing two-thirds of the power play share. If he loses this role, it will no doubt hurt what little value he still has and reduce his chances of being able to mount an effective comeback to what owners were hoping for on draft day.
St. Louis
Moving to Jim Montgomery's newest destination in St. Louis, let's examine the even strength line combinations in last night's win against New York.
First off, perhaps one of the more interesting observations was that the ice time was spread very evenly among all four lines. The gap between the first and fourth line was under 30 seconds, which could either be due to the way New York rolls their lineup or just Montgomery trying to see what he has to work with. It will be interesting to see how this changes moving forward, if it at all. Fantasy owners will want to see the top names getting larger shares of ice time.
It was good to see Jake Neighbours holding his spot alongside Robert Thomas at both even strength and on the power play. He is only on pace for 39 points in spite of his solid deployment but that is likely due to some poor luck as indicated by his low 5on5 Shooting Percentage and low PDO (5.1% and 939 respectively). In the meantime, Neighbours has been providing solid value in peripheral categories, averaging two shots and two hits per game. Hold onto Neighbours or keep an eye on him, when the points start coming, he could be in for a boost so long as this deployment holds.
Brayden Schenn and Brandon Saad
Both Schenn and Saad getting time with Jordan Kyrou under Montgomery is noteworthy. It is not new as indicated by the near 30 minutes so far this season that the trio have been together. Schenn immediately cashed in with a goal and an assist along with seven hits, and all advanced metrics indicate he should be playing a little better than his current 39-point pace. Perhaps consistent time with Kyrou as opposed to Mathieu Joseph and Dylan Holloway will lead to a slight bump in production. Similarly to Saad however, neither player is getting looks on the top power play unit at the moment which will ultimately put a cap on how well they can do. So, it's hard to get too excited until we either see a little more production or St. Louis has a great schedule. It is also worth noting that even though Schenn notched a couple of points, the line was horribly outplayed last night as shown in their 27.3 SF% and 31.6 CF%. If this becomes a trend, they are unlikely to stick together.
As a quick note, Nyquist replaced Jonathan Marchessault on the top power play unit in last night's game. They were unable to convert but keep an eye on the practice lines and line combinations ahead of Nashville's next game. If he is there again it may be worth scooping him up as the difference between his 34-point pace this season and the 76-point pace last season seems mostly attributed to a lack of power play exposure.