Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm an American defenseman currently playing in the NHL

CLUE #2 – I'm on my second NHL team and under age 30

CLUE #3 – I scored at almost a point per game rate in my final season of college hockey

CLUE #4 – I only spent one full season with my first team, not even managing to tally 30 points but more than half of the points I did score came on the PP

CLUE #5 – The first season on my current team had been – to date – my best, as I had more than a point per every other game and again more than half my points were on the PP, plus it was the only time in my career thus far that I averaged over 2 SOG per game

CLUE #6 – I've averaged 2+ hits per game each season I've played with my current team

CLUE #7 – In the past four seasons my games played has varied, yet my point total fluctuated by only two, but amounting to more than a point per every other game in just one of the seasons

CLUE #8 – I was undrafted

CLUE #9 – The first team I played for was an original six team, and my current team is Canadian, but not an original six team

CLUE #10 – This season it took me only until game 16 to tally more than half the highest point total I had in any of my most recent four seasons

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. And yes, I realize this is the third Forum Buzz column in as many weeks, but the Forums remain fertile ground for great questions and discussions and it's still a little too soon for a Poll or Goldipucks. And I need your questions – hint, hint – before I can publish a mailbag column.

Topic #1 – A GM in a 14 team, keep 12 league with goals worth more than assists and d-man scoring with added weight, plus goalies being very coveted, is looking for a team audit. They went all in last season, diluting their keepers in the process. They've tried to retool via trades, and think they have eight surefire keepers in Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk, Travis Konecny, Mikhail Sergachev, Miro Heiskanen, Brandt Clarke, Luke Hughes, and Jake Oettinger. Their prospects are likely among the weakest in the league, and the others on their roster are Evander Kane, Kent Johnson, Jack Quinn, Sean Couturier, Nick Bjugstad, Pavel Zacha, Filip Chytil, Tyler Bertuzzi, Nino Niederreiter, Andrei Kuzmenko, Chandler Stephenson, Eeli Tolvanen, Jeff Skinner, Jamie Drysdale, MacKenzie Blackwood, Spencer Knight. What is their outlook?

I'd say it's not a lost cause, but at the same time the outlook is not great. The eight identified keepers are indeed correct choices given this roster, and I'd say are pretty solid considering the league's emphasis on defenseman scoring. Yet other than Quinn and Johnson, the rest of the options for their other four keepers is not great. For one of the other two I'd gamble on Drysdale, as if he can get healthy there are no real roadblocks to him getting very favorable deployment; plus Philly paid a steep price to get him, so that will work in his favor. For the last, I'd also take my chances on Knight given the goalie emphasis, as although he's not thriving as expected, he's far from a lost cause.

If indeed d-men are very coveted, and assuming he does play well at some point this season, I'd not hesitate to trade Hughes. As I've noted previously, the most recent other defensemen who scored at a point per every other game or better pace as a rookie, with more than half their points having come on the PP but averaging as few or fewer SOG per game as Hughes, were Cam Fowler, Will Butcher, and Matt Carle. That is worrisome company in which to find oneself, especially since Hughes is not an all-around rearguard like Fowler. But his high profile rookie season, coupled with his family pedigree, will likely entice another GM to pay handsomely for him, again, assuming he has a stretch of strong enough play for confidence in him to be restored at least to some extent.

I'd also consider putting Clarke's name out there as well, just to see what he could land. Don't get me wrong – I think he's great and will be a top 20 if not top 10 fantasy defenseman at his peak. But his hype might never be higher than it is now, and it's called selling high for a reason. Plus Drew Doughty will be back in the picture eventually, and we've seen how Alex Pietrangelo's continued presence stood somewhat in the way of Shea Theodore, so that is worth keeping in mind. If this team wanted to try to improve in the aggregate, I'd say they should try to turn Clarke and a "decent" forward like Zacha or Kuzmenko, into two keepable assets. Again, I'm not saying to definitely do this. But float Clarke out there and see what happens.

Looking ahead, I'd try to draft fewer "so so" players. What I mean by that is many of those who are on the roster are neither likely to be great or terrible. The issue is players like that make for lousy keepers. Next season this team should take more risks at the draft, trying to get at least a couple of feast or famine players since if they work out then it's paydirt, and if they don't they're usually easy to drop in favor of a better option.

Topic #2 – In a 10 team H2H scoring league with goalie categories of W, GAA, SV, SO, and OTL, a GM has Stuart Skinner, Ukko Pekka-Luukkonen, and Pyotr Kochetkov and is wondering if they should put in a claim for Demko, who's on waivers, to position themselves to potentially reap the benefits if indeed Demko returns soon? If so, who would they drop from their current roster, which also has, as skaters, Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Alexis Lafreniere, Lucas Raymond, Filip Forsberg, Ivan Barbashev, Mattthew Knies, Mathew Barzal, Cole Perfetti, Mark Scheifele, Sean Monahan, Rickard Rakell, Robert Thomas (IR when this was posted), Valeri Nichushkin (IR when this was posted), Morgan Rielly, Devon Toews, Owen Power, Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes, Filip Hronek, Brady Skjei?

One thing that seemingly was not spelled out was whether in order to grab Demko they'd have to drop a goalie once Demko is active. That matters, since in a H2H league the more goalies the better, plus with Frederik Andersen out for a while Kochetkov is essentially a starter.

Assuming that Thomas and Nichushkin are no longer on IR, but Matthews is, that means the team will have had to drop a player already, unless Kochetkov lands on IR (not known as I write this). Demko could be put in the other IR spot, such that no other player would need to be dropped at the moment. And there seem to be several guys who'd be droppable without much pain, namely Skjei, Hronek, Rakell or Perfetti.

The other key about grabbing Demko is it keeps him out of another GM's roster. That doesn't matter now, but likely will once Demko is playing again. And worst case scenario, namely in order to have Demko stay on the roster a goalie has to be dropped, that's a "later" problem and a lot can change between now and then. And in a 10 team league, having four starters means one or two teams don't, and that would allow this team to make a trade when the time comes.

This is a good reminder that for fantasy, always do what you can to improve, especially if it can, at the same time, keep your opponents from improving. Even if it means a problem might arise later, as I noted a lot can change between now and then (look at Kochetkov), and best to be in a position of strength. Yes, if there is a limit on goalies that can be rostered then other GMs will know this team might have to trade a goalie; but I think the fact that they'd be able to trade a true starter would be enough to cause at least one other GMs to make a deal favoring this team. Or to put it another way, starting goalies are such a rare commodity that having one, even if it ultimately will mean trading one down the road, is something I'd say is almost a good idea.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team, jeep 10, points only league with starting lineups of 9F. 3D, 2G, a team with the following roster is in first place:

F – Nathan MacKinnon, Tim Stutzle, Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Travis Konecny, Brock Nelson, Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin, Marco Rossi. Tyler Toffoli, Jamie Benn

D – Cale Makar, Zach Werenski, Brock Faber, Shayne Gostisbehere

G- Andrei Vasilevskiy, Aleksandar Georgiev, Justus Annunen, Ilya Samsonov

Should they accept a trade offer of Mika Zibanejad for Nichushkin plus a draft pick?

If you put a lot of eggs in the same basket, it better be a good one, and Colorado's offense does fit that bill. Nich gives this team, which also has both Colorado netminders, four skaters, three of whom will almost assuredly be on PP1. And Drouin here is key, as if Nichushkin somehow has a recurrence of his off ice issues, that will likely free up a spot on PP1 for Drouin, while if Nich is healthy, he'll get the spot.

What would Zibs add? For one, reliability, as he's missed a combined two games over the past three seasons. And that is important, since if this line-up is indicative of roster sizes, then there is not a lot of room for injuries or players missing games. But Zibs is either off to a slow start or perhaps beginning to slow, since as I write this he's not even averaging two SOG per game, when as recently as two seasons ago he was above three per contest. His TOI is also down quite a bit, including over 30 seconds on the PP. But his PP usage percentage is essentially unchanged; so that means the Rangers are drawing fewer penalties, which is not great news for Zibs, as of his 163 points over the past two seasons 70 came on the PP. But that also raises another point, which is his PP scoring rate is atypically low due to a 37% PP IPP, which is far below his norm. Also, of his ten assists, only two are secondary, this from a player who's normally right around 35% in that area. So Zibs might be due for improvement.

Looking at this team's roster even more, it's not just Colorado skaters that they've hoarded, but Minnesota ones too. No wonder they're in first place. Part of me wonders then if it would be best to diversify a bit, just in case either or both of those teams slow. In the end though, I think you play to win in fantasy; and given what we're seeing from the Avs and Wild thus far, I'd say that means keeping Nichushkin. Also, the draft pick "sweetener" is negligible in a 12 team keep ten league with starting line-ups only including 14 players.

Topic #4 – In 12 team, keep 9 league with scoring of G(4.25 for D, 3.5 for F), A(3 for D, 2.5 for F), HIT(0.5), BLK(0.5), GA(-1.5), SV(0.3), W(2), SO(2) a GM has been offered Dylan Strome for their Jared McCann. Should they make the deal? This is their roster:

F – Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Anze Kopitar, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, JJ Peterka, McCann, Connor McMichael, Anders Lee, Pavel Dorofeyev, Fabian Zetterlund

D – Rasmus Andersson, Lane Hutson, Samuel Girard, Rasmus Sandin, Jeremy Lauzon, Philip Broberg

G- Anthony Stolarz, Dustin Wolf, Ilya Samsonov

Prospects – Jack Quinn, Matthew Coronato, Andrew Cristall, Berkley Catton, Denton Mateychuk, Jacob Fowler, Zach Benson

Strome, like many on Washington, has started red hot. But with Alex Ovechkin out for what could be two months, Strome will need to prove he can produce without having Ovi alongside him. The impressive thing about Strome is last season, when virtually all Caps players saw their production rate fall, Strome's inched upwards. Also, his older brother was a bit of a late bloomer, suggesting that Strome could only now be hitting his stride as he approaches his late 20s.

Notwithstanding Strome's super high OZ%, which comes with playing with Ovi, the team's 5×5 SH% with Strome on the ice stands at 21.7% as I write this, which is stratospheric. After all, just four forwards collectively in the past two seasons finished above 13%, and Strome is far above even that lofty mark. Strome also has a 100% IPP on the PP, having never previously hit the 70% level. And his IPP overall is 75.7%, which is a bit more reasonable considering he ended 2023-24 just below that mark. Still, all the unsustainable good luck Strome has experienced suggests he should be closer to a point per game player, if even that. And remember that trading for him means none of the numbers he's amassed thus far will come with him. Plus, to evidence just how important Ovi was to Strome, a mere two of the 28 points Strome had as I write this came without Ovi also on the ice.

As for McCann, he's quietly become a reliable scorer. His ice time keeps ticking up, both overall and on the PP, and his SH%, though high, is not in uncharted territory. He also is shooting less this season, making it more plausible that he could keep shooting at a higher rate of accuracy. His IPPs are right on track to match what they were last season, but his 5×5 team SH% is high, although that is to be expected since he really is not a point per game player as he is now.

But McCann is not much below that given his IPPs, and proven ability to score. He just goes out there and quietly puts up numbers. Chances are this other GM sees this, and is looking for a "steady Eddie" who can provide them with 35/35 production, especially since goals come at a premium, and McCann has averaged 32 goals over the past three seasons, compared to just 24 for Strome. Both are weak in banger cats, but McCann a bit less so.

I think this was a toss up before Ovi's injury. But with Ovi on the shelf until at least early 2025, Ithink the scales tilt toward keeping McCann.

Topic #5 – What's happening with Shane Wright? Is he headed toward being a bust, or is there still reason for hope?

On the one hand, we're talking about a player who's still not even 21 years old. Yet Wright has had tastes of NHL action in two previous seasons, failing to log double digits in games though in either. For 2024-25, he's staying on the roster and – until recently – playing on a nightly basis. How long might he stay with the team though is unclear, as he's gone weeks without hitting the score sheet, and his two lone points on the season came in the same game, plus he's been scratched the last three games. He wasn't logging a lot of ice time but was seeing some PP time, yet with nary a PPPt to show for it and a SOG rate overall that is well less than one per game.

But he has had some bad luck, as although he only has two points, his IPP is 14.3%. meaning that 14 points have been scored while he was on the ice, which, considering he's averaging not even 13 minutes per game, is pretty decent. Also, his 5×5 team SH% is barely under 10%, after being 13.5% and 11.6% in limited action his two prior seasons. Make no mistake, these are very good numbers and paint the picture of a player where all certainly is not lost. Yes, he likely did as well as he did las season in part because he started nearly 75% of his shifts in the offensive zone. But given that he's at 50.3% for 2024-25, which is a drop of a third, his 5×5 team SH% has dropped less percentagewise, suggesting he is still helping make things happen.

No question he needs to shoot more. But that can come. Could he still benefit from time in the AHL? Perhaps, as he didn't exactly go nuts there last season, not even posting point per game numbers. But I'm encouraged by him not being sent down yet, plus also still getting at least some PP time, when he played even if it is essentially scraps.

In the end, he's still very young, has an impressive 5×5 team SH%, and his IPP is far and away below what I'd even consider merely unlucky. I wouldn't go so far as to say he's a buy low, as most likely whoever owns him paid a hefty price in draft or trade to get him; however, I'd look for Wright to make strides over the rest of 2024-25 if he manages to stay in the NHL and play decent minutes, hopefully averaging a point per very other game.

Topic #6 – In a 14 team, keep 25, roto cap ($108M) league with rosters of 12F, 6D, 2G, 5 Bench, 5IR, 10 Farm (8 skaters, 2 goalies) and categories of G, A, Pts, PIM, HIT, BLK, SOG, F Pts, D Pts, W+Ties+SO, GAA, SV%, which two are the best owns: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Tomas Hertl?

Even though he shoots more, plus is still young enough to take a different path, more and more I feel like Larkin is on his way to becoming to be the next Mark Scheifele. By that I mean a player who's consistently solid, but never really will make the leap into truly elite territory. We know that Scheifele had a better supporting cast than Larkin has had thus far. That, plus, as I noted, Larkin's higher SOG rate, might give him a higher ceiling; however, I think until proven otherwise Larkin is likely a 80-85 point player. Larkin's issue though is he's very weak in banger categories. Plus, positions don't matter, such that his higher than normal SOG rate for a center is not as much of a difference maker as it would be if rosters had to have Cs, LWs, and RWs.

Hertl on the other hand has never – not even once – scored at a point per game or better rate. He's also no spring chicken, at 31. And although he's fared well thus far for Vegas, his TOI is way down, and more than half his points have come on the PP, this from a player who'd only once in his entire career averaged more than one PPPt per every five games. Yes, he toiled for many a terrible Sharks team, but he also was around when they were a pretty decent team. At this point he's more of a supporting player who I'd expect to score around 70 points if all goes well, but with more of a chance of slipping to 65 than rising to 75.  Think Timo Meier.

DeBrincat was someone I think nearly everyone had pegged to have done better than he has in the past few seasons. He disappointed in Ottawa, then again last season for the Wings. But for 2024-25 thus far he's doing better, or at least it seems so on the surface. But in reality his SOG rate is way down and his SH%, even factoring in selective shooting, is too high to be sustainable. He too is relying on the PP at a rate higher than his norm. And with him shooting less, his poor outputs in banger categories stick out even more, and not in a good way.

So Larkin is the best of the trio, as his floor is highest and he has the highest ceiling among them. Hertl and DeBrincat are in similar situations, although Hertl is several years older, yet far better in multicat. What worries me about DeBrincat is what happens f he loses his gig playing alongside Larkin?  That's because when he and Larkin mainly did not skate on the same line in Q4 last season DeBrincat managed just 14 points in 21 games. And on top of that his PP time dropped precipitously in the second half of 2023-24. Could one or both happen again?

With Hertl, he's in a nice spot on Vegas, as although he'll take the ice less his team, much like Dallas and Carolina, is built for several lines to succeed. So his floor arguably is higher than DeBrincat's. Still, the age difference does matter, as does the possibility of a Larkin/DeBrincat stack. The cap hit for DeBrincat and Hartl is comparable, although DeBrincat will be a UFA in 2027, while Hertl is signed for far longer. So with Hertl, there is no risk of a big pay jump, although if DeBrincat keeps up his good but not great scoring, he might not be in line for much of a raise, if even a raise at all. In the end, I think Hertl is the safer play, but DeBrincat is who I'd keep if I wanted to try to hope for more of a home run and stack.

Topic #7 – A team in first place has Gabriel Landeskog, Alex Ovechkin, and Frederick Andersen occupying the three IR spots on its roster. Concerned about having no IR flexibility for quite a while, they considered the idea of trading Andersen and a third round pick for an IR spot but with the understanding that it would get the IR spot and Andersen back when Andersen is off IR, in essence making it a trade of a third round pick for roster flexibility. Should this be allowed?

In short, no, unless there is exact precedent for this having occurred, or all GMs agree to allow it unanimously. That's because it could be seen as at worst collusive and at best an attempt to circumvent the letter of the league rules. The other issue is it would entitle them to an extra IR spot for at least a few weeks. Thus, this team would have the benefit of something that other teams do not, and that should not be okay, again unless past precedent can be pointed to or it's approved unanimously.

Why allow it to even be considered? Although I'm a firm believer in abiding by established rules, if everyone in the league unanimously agrees to change something on the fly, then it should be able to occur.

Something like this once arose In my main league. We get only seven FA moves for the season, and one season a GM who'd used all their moves wanted another, so they offered to trade a draft pick to another GM for one of their unused moves, with the reasoning being there is no extra move being created and the GM who'd get the move would still have to drop a player, so they would not get another roster spot. We put it to a vote, and the other GMs didn't all say yes, but did agree that it should be something we find a way to let happen, just not in the middle of the season. So that offseason everyone got together and set a standard draft pick price for a free agent pick up, such that on a going forward basis it would be allowed. We also agreed that free agent moves could be put into larger trades, and if so they'd be treated as having the same value as the draft pick they'd cost in a standalone trade.

In short, I am not in favor of rule changes or departures from the norm during the season, that is unless all GMs agree to allow it. Just revisit it once the season ends. And it is also always best to have an understanding as to what it takes to change/add a rule in the offseason. Should it only need to be only by a majority of GMs, or everyone, or a certain percentage? I'm in favor only of allowing rule changes where it's unanimous. Otherwise, that can lead to lingering resentment or other things that are not best for the league. In other words, don't fix what ain't broke, but if you do, make sure it's a fix that everyone wants.

The ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Neal Pionk!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.