Analyzing Player Performance Across Seasons: A Fantasy Hockey Deep Dive

Welcome back to this week's edition of Analytics Advantage! As the NHL season progresses, understanding player trends is crucial for fantasy hockey managers aiming to outmaneuver their competition. This week, we're comparing player performances from November 27th of the 2023/24 season to the same date in the 2024/25 season. We'll focus on five players: Mattias Ekholm, Roope Hintz, Jakob Chychrun, Ivan Barbashev, and Mika Zibanejad.

By examining their raw statistics and underlying trends, we'll provide actionable insights to help you make informed decisions for your fantasy roster.

Methodology

We've analyzed key performance metrics for each player, including:

                •             Goals

                •             Total Assists

                •             Shots on Goal

                •             Shots Blocked

                •             Hits

                •             Time on Ice per Game (TOI/GP)

                •             Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG)

While raw stats serve as primary evidence, we also consider underlying factors like ice time and team dynamics to infer trends that could impact future performance.

Player Analyses

1. Mattias Ekholm (D, Edmonton Oilers)

Side-by-Side Stats: 23/24 vs. 24/25 as of Nov 27 of each season

                •             GP: 20 → 22

                •             G: 3 → 2

                •             A: 6 → 8

                •             PTS: 9 → 10

                •             SOG: 44 → 60

                •             BLK: 22 → 28

                •             HIT: 34 → 17

                •             FPPG: 8.40 → 8.86

                •             TOI/GP: 20:23 → 23:07

Analysis:

Mattias Ekholm has increased his offensive involvement this season. His shots on goal have risen from 44 to 60, a significant uptick indicating he's more active in generating scoring opportunities. Although he has one fewer goal, his assist total has increased from 6 to 8, resulting in a slight increase in points.

Defensively, he's blocking more shots (28 compared to 22) and continues to be a reliable presence on the blue line. However, his hits have decreased from 34 to 17, which might suggest a shift in his playing style or role within the team.

His average time on ice per game has increased by nearly three minutes, from 20:23 to 23:07, indicating greater trust from the coaching staff and more opportunities to contribute.

Recommendation: Add or Hold

Ekholm's increased shot volume and steady point production enhance his fantasy value, especially in leagues that reward shots and defensive stats like blocks. His elevated ice time further boosts his potential. If he's available, consider adding him to your roster. If you already have him, continue to hold and reap the benefits of his expanded role.

2. Roope Hintz (C, Dallas Stars)

Side-by-Side Stats: 23/24 vs. 24/25 as of Nov 27 of each season

                •             GP: 19 → 20

                •             G: 8 → 8

                •             A: 10 → 5

                •             PTS: 18 → 13

                •             SOG: 49 → 46

                •             HIT: 6 → 13

                •             FPPG: 9.87 → 8.35

                •             TOI/GP: 17:18 → 17:04

Analysis:

Roope Hintz has maintained his goal-scoring pace with 8 goals in both seasons at this point. However, his assists have dropped from 10 to 5, leading to a decrease in total points from 18 to 13. His shots on goal have slightly decreased from 49 to 46, suggesting a minor dip in offensive opportunities.

Interestingly, his hits have increased from 6 to 13, indicating he's contributing more physically. This uptick in hits can add value in leagues that count physical stats.

His time on ice per game has slightly decreased, which may partly explain the reduction in assists. It's possible that team strategies or line adjustments have affected his playmaking opportunities.

Recommendation: Buy Low

The decrease in assists and overall points may cause some managers to undervalue Hintz. His consistent goal scoring and stable shot volume suggest that the dip in assists could be temporary. This presents a buying opportunity. Acquiring Hintz now could pay off if he returns to his previous assist rate.

3. Jakob Chychrun (D, Washington Capitals)

Side-by-Side Stats: 23/24 vs. 24/25 as of Nov 27 of each season

                •             GP: 17 → 17

                •             G: 5 → 6

                •             A: 7 → 6

                •             PTS: 12 → 12

                •             SOG: 42 → 36

                •             BLK: 29 → 24

                •             HIT: 9 → 14

                •             FPPG: 10.41 → 9.67

                •             TOI/GP: 24:11 → 19:54

Analysis:

Jakob Chychrun has maintained a consistent point total, with 12 points in both seasons. He's increased his goals from 5 to 6 but has one fewer assist. His shots on goal have decreased from 42 to 36, which might be due to a slight reduction in offensive opportunities or a change in team systems after moving to Washington.

His hits have increased from 9 to 14, suggesting he's taking on a more physical role. However, his shots blocked have decreased from 29 to 24. His average time on ice has dropped significantly from 24:11 to 19:54, which could impact his ability to produce consistently.

Recommendation: Hold

Chychrun remains a valuable asset, especially in leagues that reward goals from defensemen and physical stats. While his ice time has decreased, he continues to contribute across multiple categories. Monitor his usage, but there's no immediate need to make a move.

4. Ivan Barbashev (C, Vegas Golden Knights)

Side-by-Side Stats: 23/24 vs. 24/25 as of Nov 27 of each season

                •             GP: 23 → 23

                •             G: 4 → 10

                •             A: 2 → 15

                •             PTS: 6 → 25

                •             SOG: 37 → 39

                •             HIT: 52 → 45

                •             FPPG: 6.23 → 10.08

                •             TOI/GP: 14:50 → 16:41

Analysis:

Ivan Barbashev has experienced a remarkable increase in offensive production. His goals have jumped from 4 to 10, and his assists from 2 to 15, leading to a total of 25 points compared to just 6 last season. This surge is significant, especially considering his shots on goal have only slightly increased from 37 to 39.

This discrepancy suggests that his shooting percentage has skyrocketed to an unsustainable level (approximately 25.6%). Such a high shooting percentage is likely to regress to the mean over time.

His hits have slightly decreased from 52 to 45, but he remains a strong contributor in physical categories. His time on ice has increased by nearly two minutes, indicating he's being given more opportunities to produce.

Recommendation: Sell High

Barbashev's offensive explosion is impressive but likely not sustainable due to his inflated shooting percentage. Now is an ideal time to capitalize on his high market value. Trading him could net you a significant return before his production potentially declines.

5. Mika Zibanejad (C, New York Rangers)

Side-by-Side Stats: 23/24 vs. 24/25 as of Nov 27 of each season

                •             GP: 20 → 21

                •             G: 5 → 4

                •             A: 10 → 11

                •             PTS: 15 → 15

                •             SOG: 53 → 40

                •             HIT: 12 → 3

                •             FPPG: 9.38 → 7.44

                •             TOI/GP: 19:47 → 18:17

Analysis:

Mika Zibanejad's point total remains consistent at 15, but there's a shift in how he's accumulating those points. His goals have slightly decreased from 5 to 4, and his shots on goal have dropped from 53 to 40, indicating fewer scoring opportunities. However, he's maintained his assist production, increasing slightly from 10 to 11 assists.

A significant drop in hits from 12 to 3 suggests he's less involved physically, which may affect his value in leagues that count hits. His time on ice has decreased by about one and a half minutes per game, which could be impacting his overall production.

Recommendation: Buy Low

Zibanejad is a proven performer, and his current dip in goals and shots may be temporary. His consistent assist numbers show he's still actively involved in the offense. With his reduced ice time potentially being a short-term issue, now might be a good time to trade for him at a discount, anticipating a rebound in his goal-scoring and shot volume.

Key Takeaways

                •             Mattias Ekholm is increasing his fantasy value through higher shot volumes and consistent defensive contributions.

                •             Roope Hintz remains a goal-scoring threat, and his dip in assists may correct itself; he's a potential buy-low candidate.

                •             Jakob Chychrun provides steady production, especially valuable in leagues that reward defensemen's goals and hits.

                •             Ivan Barbashev's surge in points is likely unsustainable due to his high shooting percentage; consider selling high.

                •             Mika Zibanejad's reduced offensive numbers may rebound, making him an attractive trade target.

Tips for Fantasy Managers

                •             Monitor Shooting Percentages: Extremely high shooting percentages often regress; be cautious with players like Barbashev.

                •             Consider Ice Time Changes: Increases or decreases in TOI can signal changes in a player's role or potential production.

                •             Look Beyond the Surface: Use raw stats to assess performance, but consider underlying factors like team dynamics and player roles.

How FPPG is Calculated

Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) quantifies a player's average fantasy contribution per game:

                •             Goals: 6 points each

                •             Assists: 4 points each

                •             Shots on Goal and Shots Blocked: 1.6 points each

                •             Hits: 0.6 points each

Stay Connected

For further discussion or to request detailed graphs for your roster, feel free to reach out:

                •             Twitter/X: @DH_staspup

                •             Email: staspup@proton.me                       

•        Bluesky : https://bsky.app/profile/stasp.bsky.social

Note: All statistical data and analyses are based on datasets from November 27th of the 2023/24 and 2024/25 NHL seasons extracted from NaturalStatTrick.com