Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be examining the goalie landscape, specifically the ZeroG landscape. For those of you who are not aware, ZeroG is a strategy where you generally don't invest early picks into goalies and pick up the scraps. Using these "scraps" tend to do just as well as the early goalie picks, even in category leagues! You can check out some case studies from last year that prove this point.

If you are unfamiliar with my True Value constructs (Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks), I utilize these to model a Goalie's True Value in head-to-head (H2H) category leagues. You can find a deep dive into this topic in a previous article here.

In general, in your weekly H2H leagues, a goalie is only as good as they perform for you week-in-week out. Sometimes a Goalie's cumulative stats are elite (+.930 SV%), but they tend to have some terrible weeks followed by great weeks. For your H2H fantasy league, they may have only performed well in 60% of your matchups. Their ranking in Yahoo, ESPN, or Fantrax won't represent that inconsistency – The True Value Goalie rankings do. These rankings are built specifically for H2H category leagues that include Wins, SV%, GAA, and SO. They will also be relevant if you don't count SO, but are not as relevant for volume-heavy leagues (e.g. W, Saves, Sv%).

Here is a breakdown of the criteria of the True Value Goalie constructs:

Please note, these constructs may slightly differ from the constructs represented in FrozenTools.

Quality Week (QW) – When a goalie has performed above the weekly average in two out of three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). Last season, the average QW% was 55%.

Star Week (SW) – When a goalie has ranked top 15 for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). OR if your goalie has had a quality week AND has also gotten a shutout (This assumes SO is a counted category). Last season, the average SW% was 22%.

Really Bad Week (RBW) – When a goalie has ranked below the top 30 goalies for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA), and has not gotten a shutout. These are weeks in which it would have been more valuable for your team to not have the goalie rostered/started. Last season, the average RBW% was 23%.

The True Value rankings take into account these three constructs week-in-week-out to evaluate Goalie consistency for your H2H leagues. You can find these rankings here, updated throughout the season.

Here's the top 20 through eight weeks (does not account from Sunday's games):

As we have eight fantasy weeks in the books, the rankings can paint an interesting picture of goalie performance so far, especially in comparison to Yahoo's rankings. I will be highlighting some lesser-owned goalies that have shined in True Value who you may want to consider picking up for a stream or even a hold. First let’s appease all the ZeroG managers out there and highlight some goalies drafted super early who are not doing so well:

Igor Shesterkin – 5 QWs (62.5%), 1 RBW (12.5%), 2 SWs (25%)

Shesterkin has respectable cumulative stats and even respectable True Value stats, but he has been good for only 21^st-best though. Not the consistency you were hoping for if you drafted him in the second round.

Jeremy Swayman – 4 QWs (50%), 1 RBW (12.5%), 0 SWs (0%)

Swayman is having one of his worst and most inconsistent seasons with no Star Weeks to show for it. Even in his successful seasons, he was not the most consistent goalie, failing to shine in these True Value rankings.

Alexandar Georgiev – 3 QWs (42.9%), 2 RBWs (28.6%), 0 SWs (0%)

Georgiev has made the goalie situation in Colorado very murky. He has almost as many RBWs as QWs.

Now let’s move onto some ZeroG options that may be on your waiver wire.

I want to revisit Georgiev. If you went ZeroG, you likely didn't draft him, but he has now maybe been dropped, making him a realistic ZeroG option moving forward.

Colorado is a great team and gives their goalies opportunities to pick up plenty of wins. They also rank top 10 in even strength expected goals against. Unfortunately for them, Georgiev is second last in the league in goals saved above expected. As is the nature of goalies, the non-elite ones will have cold stretches and hot stretches. Georgiev looks to possibly be finished with a terribly cold stretch as he has had all three of his QWs in the last month. The Avalanche brought in an unquestionable backup in Scott Wedgewood, pretty much solidifying at least a timeshare for Georgiev. I am definitely interested in Georgiev if he is on waivers.

Jonathan Quick – 5 QW (83.3%), 1 RBW (16.7%), 4 SW (66.7%)

Quick had an insanely hot start to the season, grabbing four Star Weeks in his first four active weeks. He did these all with one start a week. You may wonder if only one start a week is valuable enough for leagues. Well, if he is giving you one win and putting up a GAA of 1.00 and a save percentage of .970, yes – very much so. He has shown he can be a stellar backup and should be streamed when he gets starts. He may not get a start every week, but if he has a nice matchup, stream this beautiful backup.

Kevin Lankinen – 5 QWs (62.5%), 0 RBWs (0%), 2 SWs (25%)

He may be taken in your league, but since Lankinen is only rostered in 68% of Yahoo leagues, I have to mention him. He is not the flashiest goalie with only a .909 save percentage, but he is fairly consistent and has not had a Really Bad Week yet! He's been the 11th best goalie so far this season. He is the solidified starter for Vancouver until Thatcher Demko returns – grab this man if he's available.

Joonas Korpisalo – 6 QWs (85.7%), 1 RBW (14.3%), 2 SWs (28.7%)

After having a dreadful first week, it looked like Korpisalo would not be getting many starts this year, but the landscape has changed drastically. He's picked up six Quality Weeks in his last seven active weeks, getting at least one start in the last five weeks. It looks like they may opt to give Swayman some rest here and there, offering Korpisalo a great opportunity to get at least a start a week. Boston is strong defensive team, giving Korpisalo plenty of opportunities to pick up QWs. Keep an eye on Boston's rotation, they may give Korpi a start for every two of Swayman's. I'm personally planning on streaming him this week where he'll go up against Detroit or Chicago (or maybe even get two starts!)

Frederik Andersen (injured!) – 3 QWs (100%), 0 RBWs (0%), 2 SWs (66.7%)

Andersen is expected to be out another 2-3 months after his knee surgery, prompting many fantasy managers to drop him. This is purely a speculative add if you have room on IR or IR+. He could be back in February or March, a crucial time for making the fantasy playoffs. Prior to injury, he had very consistent play, with a three out of three QWs and two of three SWs. On an elite defensive Carolina team, Andersen could be a ZeroG league winner (if he actually makes a comeback!)

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

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