DFS Thursday: Goals for Colorado and Carolina; Tampa Bay’s Great Matchup; Werenski’s Value; Cheap Goaltender

Andrew Santillo

2024-12-05

Good day, all! How've we been doing on the DFS streets recently? I didn't play yesterday's four gamer but did play Tuesday with a Vancouver top line mixed with a Washington Connor McMichael/Tom Wilson two-man. My Vancouver stack in a crap matchup did fine. My Caps two-man in a great matchup did not. But hey, new slate new day!

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Colorado vs Carolina

I'm going to start here with Colorado, and we'll make this quick. If you want to play the Avs, just lock and load the top line. Don't overthink it or try and go across different lines, just go with the trio and really be confident that your filler stack is viable. I'd say you can drop down to the Colorado second line, but you know who else is thinking that? Probably everyone. I'm probably 3-maxing here tonight and if I'm going anywhere on the Avs side it's the top line.  

For Carolina though it's interesting on what to do here. On the first pass through this slate, I really wasn't planning on going to this game but then remembered that we've seen this game once already this season with a 6-4 outcome. Going back to even last season, the two games between these two ended at 5-2 and 6-4. If there's going to be goals here, I want a piece but I'm not sure just where I'll be if I go Carolina here. I don't dislike plugging in players across lines, but for Carolina I tend to hesitate here and there. I think if I go anywhere here it would be a Martin Necas ($7,500) – Andrei Svechnikov ($7K) two-man, other than that I'm not sure I'll be grabbing my center from the 'Canes here tonight.  

San Jose vs Tampa Bay

Let's start with our friends the Sharks. I wrote on Tuesday that it feels like maybe getting in on the ground floor with this group, and while that may be true, I still don't like these lines at even strength. Last month when they had a fully correlated top and second line, I loved playing them and they fit perfect with Dallas which fit perfect with winning money. Now though, I'd hesitate to go anywhere but Macklin Celebrini at $6K. I want to like the Sharks here as they've been good the last couple weeks at 5v5 as they sit third by expected goals-for over that timeframe, but this is a game for the other side of this matchup.

Alright so let's talk this out for Tampa here. Are they going to be chalk? That's a yes. They're on home ice vs this Sharks club, so they are going to be extremely popular. When that happens and I want to be on one side of a matchup, sometimes I like to go over the field on exposure and this Tampa team might allow us to do so. In the past 10 games, they have drawn 28 power play opportunities and have made the most of them with a 32.1 PP%. With that, I don't mind just going full on power play stack here and calling it a day. As things stand at even strength, they'll be going up against a Sharks team that in the past two weeks has the worst expected goals against rate, so I feel fine even if I just go for a four-man stack in a 4-3-1, with Tampa as my anchor. The only issue I see right now is what to do with Nikita Kucherov ($9,600) as he's way up there in price and also DTD. If he's in, great and maybe you catch the field sleeping on the news that he's in the lineup. If not, then you'd have plenty of cash to spare and change up your lineup as you see fit. Even with him potentially out, if I'm living the single-entry life, Tampa draws in for me, as they would with larger entries.  
 
Columbus vs Edmonton

They're just begging us to play Columbus, aren't they. The top line of Kirill Marchenko ($6,200), Dmitri Voronkov ($4,100), and Sean Monahan still in his Habs sweater on DK ($6,700), are all still fully correlated. If you want to play them here, I could see it being a way to get unique, but I'm more on the other side of this matchup. In Edmonton's last four games their goals allowed have been one, one, three in OT, and two. If you like Columbus because of the correlation you can play them, but this is another matchup where I'll be on the home side.

For Edmonton, I think this is a rare case where maybe you get away with a Connor McDavid one off at $9,700. If Kucherov is out, you can even one-off McDavid with cheaper Tampa Bay and really be on a good path here. I say that because full stacking the Edmonton top line along with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at $4,100 and Kasperi Kapanen at $2,800 is going to be a very popular build because of the salary relief and power play exposure that you get with Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid. I don't dislike the play here because Edmonton is in a good spot at home, but I do think this could be a game that you can take one-off's from and build a fun lineup.

Defensemen

Cale Makar at $8,500 is still too rich for my blood but while saying that, Zach Werenski at $8,300 seems like the right price. If you're pricing defensemen up and looking for value at the wings, then Evan Bouchard ($7,100) and Victor Hedman ($6,700) do seem like good options here. For me though, I will likely be living on the lower side of the salary scale but there are good options. Dante Fabbro at $3,400 interests me and I don't mind his teammate Ivan Provorov at $3,300. Cam York at $3,400 is also in play for me here tonight along with Shayne Gostisbehere at $4,300 in the Carolina game.  

Goalies

For what I think I'll be doing tonight, I will probably need a goaltender on the cheaper side and boy is it grim. Ivan Fedotov at $7,300 is the highest I'd go to ruin my lineup (though Samuel Ersson may be returning), but I could see myself going down slightly to the always reliable Jordan Binnington at $7,200. It could be one of those nights in net here tonight everybody. Buckle up.

Good luck tonight everybody!  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jan 11 - 13:01 FLA vs BOS
Jan 11 - 16:01 BUF vs SEA
Jan 11 - 16:01 PIT vs OTT
Jan 11 - 19:01 MTL vs DAL
Jan 11 - 19:01 PHI vs ANA
Jan 11 - 19:01 CHI vs EDM
Jan 11 - 19:01 WPG vs COL
Jan 11 - 19:01 TOR vs VAN
Jan 11 - 19:01 STL vs CBJ
Jan 11 - 19:01 N.J vs T.B
Jan 11 - 20:01 NSH vs WSH
Jan 11 - 21:01 UTA vs NYI
Jan 11 - 22:01 CGY vs L.A
Jan 11 - 22:01 VGK vs NYR
Jan 11 - 22:01 S.J vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANY HEATLEY
COLE CAUFIELD MTL
PATRICK KANE DET
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JAKUB DOBES MTL
ALEX LYON DET
SAM MONTEMBEAULT MTL
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency EDM Players
21.2 CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN LEON DRAISAITL
11.7 VASILY PODKOLZIN RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS VIKTOR ARVIDSSON
7.5 COREY PERRY KASPERI KAPANEN MATTIAS JANMARK

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