Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be examining some bubble players. These are players that managers may have contemplated dropping in 10–12-man leagues. They had a nice start to the season, or a nice hot streak and found their way onto many rosters, but their recent play has some cause for concern. I'll dive deep into their numbers and determine if it is time to cut ties with them or if you should be holding strong through the cold streak.

Anthony Cirelli – 82 game pace: 38 G, 44 A, 82 P, 7 PPP, 174 SOG, 38 Hits, 89 BLK

Cirelli is on pace to absolutely smash his career highs in goals, points, and shots. With injuries to Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, Cirelli stepped up and produced in a big way with a big bump in ice time. Now that the superstars are back, Cirelli won't be seeing any time on the first power-play unit and will settle into his normal middle six/PP2 role. Even with that role, Cirelli shows some promise, with increased shots and high-danger scoring chances per 60 compared to last year. These numbers aren't so different from past years though, in which he has never seen more than 20 goals and 45 points. One glaring stat that causes concern is his even-strength shooting percentage at 20.5%. He's hovered between 9% and 14% throughout his career. I would not expect his shooting luck to continue.

Given the lack of power-play time to come alongside a predicted regression in shooting percentage, I'd be fine cutting ties with the center-only Cirelli in 10-man leagues and in most 12-man leagues. If you can trade him away for value, go for it, but he may just end up being a drop soon. It is always hard dropping someone who has outperformed their expectations, but it is satisfying not holding the bag as they regress back to their norms. Cirelli could have a very big cold streak soon, so you don't want him on your roster expecting big things when this happens.

Ivan Barbashev – 82 game pace: 38 G, 44 A, 82 P, 3 PPP, 138 SOG, 161 Hits, 44 BLK

Barbashev, Vegas' leading goal scorer, has had some insane streaks this year also on pace to crush his career highs. He started the year off with 12 points in his first 10 games, only to go pointless in his next three games. He then had five points in the three games following that, only to go pointless in the next four. After that cold stretch, he flipped a switch again and had 11 points in sevent games. Barbashev has been quite streaky to say the least. He is playing with elite linemates, Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, on the top line giving him plenty of opportunities to pick up points. He has taken full advantage of this at even strength only, getting limited power-play opportunities.

At even strength, Barbashev's per 60 chance generation stats are in line with previous years, but his efficiency is off the charts. He is shooting at a 27.9% rate and is getting a point on 79.4% of goals scored when he is on the ice. I am guaranteeing that both of these numbers will go down by the end of the season. Barbashev does pick up some nice hits, but barely shoots the puck and gets no valuable power-play ice time. When his efficiency numbers start to decline, he will not be rosterable in any 12-man leagues. It might be best to cut ties before that comes to fruition. Again, if you can trade him, do it. He is likely to be on many waiver wires in the second half of the season.

Pavel Dorofeyev – 82 game pace: 35 G, 15 A, 50 P, 15 PPP, 240 SOG, 23 Hit, 50 BLK

Dorofeyev is Vegas' second leading goal scorer behind Barbashev. He was able to step up big time when Mark Stone and Victor Olofsson were sidelined to injury. He, unlike Barbashev, actually found some success on the top power-play unit alongside Jack Eichel and is quite the shooter, averaging close to 3 SOG per game so far. Well, the part might be coming to an end for Dorofeyev with the returns of both Stone and Olofsson. He was relegated to the third line and second power-play unit, seeing his ice time decline.

With a decrease in ice time, and a decrease in skill level of his linemates, Dorofeyev will have a hard time sustaining his goal-scoring success. His underlying metrics are very promising, always showing great per 60 chance and shot generation success, but he will need the top six ice time he's been getting to stay relevant in 12-man fantasy leagues. It's time to drop Dorofeyev, but make sure you keep an eye on him and be ready to scoop him up if injuries start to pile up again for the Golden Knights.

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

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