Rasmus Dahlin suffered an injury in training camp, missed some time, but was back in the lineup when Buffalo played their games in Europe. He managed to play every game right up until December 3^rd, but the game on Wednesday night was his fourth straight out of action. It always gets a bit nerve-wracking when a player misses a week and there's not much of an update, but we got a sort-of update on Wednesday:

Ruff said Samuelsson is available to play tonight. He said Dahlin probably won't practice tomorrow and he'd fill us in more then.

— Paul Hamilton (@pham1717) December 11, 2024

We will see what the team has to say Thursday, but the fact that they didn't want to give any clear direction after missing four straight is a concern. For now, this feels like a 'hope for the best, plan for the worst' moment.

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Buffalo ended up losing that game at home to the New York Rangers by a 3-2 margin. At different points, both JJ Peterka and Owen Power were benched for extended stretches, so that's how the season's going at this point.

Mika Zibanejad got the ball rolling with a power play goal in the first period, Reilly Smith scored in the third period, and Adam Fox scored his first of the season with an empty net to get the Rangers the win. Fox finished that game with that goal, assists on the others, a shot, five blocks, and a hit. He is now up to 25 points in 28 games, and in this 20-game slide the Rangers have been on, the team is plus-4 with him on the ice at 5-on-5 and minus-14 with him off the ice. The team is a mess, but he remains one of the best defencemen in the game.

Igor Shesterkin stopped 29 of 31 shots for the win.

Power scored one goal with under five minutes remaining to get the Sabres close, and Tage Thompson scored with the goalie pulled, but it wasn't enough to get Buffalo to overtime. Power finished the game with a goal, an assist, three shots, and a hit.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 25 of 27 shots in the loss.

K'Andre Miller left the game after the second period and did not return.

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Detroit gave an update that goaltender Cam Talbot will be back shortly and, subsequently, an update on prospect goalie Sebastian Cossa:

UPDATE: The #RedWings have assigned goaltender Sebastian Cossa to the AHL's Grand Rapids Griffins. pic.twitter.com/Dh1YgEhNRC

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) December 11, 2024

With the glut in net and the team as bad as it is, it makes sense to leave Cossa in the AHL until further notice.  

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Leo Carlsson returned to the lineup on Wednesday night as Anaheim went into Ottawa, but the Ducks took the loss 5-1. Drake Batherson managed a natural hat trick in a 20-minute span between the first and second period, with two of the three goals coming on the power play, and two of the three goals going in off Anaheim defenders. Lucky to be good, and all that.

Batherson added an assist on a Brady Tkachuk power play goal, had five total shots, and a pair of hits. The four points keep him well above a point-per-game pace and keeps him well on track for the first such season of his career.

Tkachuk had a goal and an assist, both on the power play, with three shots and two hits. Tim Stutzle had two power play helpers and a hit in the win. He is now on a 105-point pace for the season.

Linus Ullmark stopped 31 of 32 shots for the win. He is now 4-0-1 in his last five games with a .944 save percentage. More of this will keep the Senators firmly in the playoff race.

Cutter Gauthier scored his fourth goal of the season, the lone Anaheim tally on the night. He totaled four shots and a couple hits in 18:30 of ice time. John Gibson gave up five goals on 34 shots in the loss.

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In Tuesday's Ramblings, I talked about players I was high on for fantasy that just haven't panned out, and are unlikely to do so. Today, let's go in the other direction and look at players I wasn't high on that have been good-to-excellent this year. As usual, data is from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools. Also, when preseason projections are mentioned, those are for a full 82-game schedule, so keep that in mind. And it's not as if these are players I thought would be outright bad, just that I had them ranked much lower than where they were being drafted.

Adrian Kempe

In a lot of drafts I did, I saw Kempe often going around the top-40 picks, so late in the theird round or early in the fourth. Among only skaters, I had him as a sixth-round pick, so when we include goalies, he was closer to a seventh-round pick. The big problem was I thought there would be a drop in his power play production, and there has been: He averaged 0.35 PPPs per game last season and sits at 0.18 PPPs per game this season. Kempe has also seen a huge rebound in his goal and assist rates at even strength, and that has more than made up the difference in the drop in power play points. As things stand, he's a top-25 player in standard Yahoo! leagues, and a top-40 player in ESPN points leagues. He has been as advertised.

Kempe is shooting 17.9%, and that helps a lot, but he also averaged 15.3% from 2021-2023. Even if that falls off a bit, a (hopeful) rise in power play production should offset that. He is once again in the second tier of multi-category wingers in fantasy hockey.

Sam Reinhart

I thought this was an easy one: 'Player who has never shot 20% before in his career and averaged 15.5% in his first two seasons with Florida shot 24.5% en route to a career year, which won't be replicated'. Reinhart said, 'You're right, I won't replicate 24.5% shooting. Instead, I'll shoot 24.7%, you a****le.' As things stand on Wednesday afternoon, Reinhart is second in the league with 19 goals and leads the league with four short-handed tallies. Just another unreal start to this season.

Again, this isn't a player I was incredibly low on; my preseason ranking for him was a 45-goal scorer and a top-40 fantasy hockey option. I just did not think he would get back to his 57-goal total while pushing for 100 points, and worth a second-round pick. To date, he's pacing for 54 goals and 110 points.

Reinhart is inside the top-5 for standard Yahoo! fantasy rankings, and inside the top-10 for ESPN points leagues. I still have doubts he'll shoot in the neighbourhood of 25%, but even if he's a 15% shooter the rest of the season, with his current assist pace, Reinhart will be a 40-goal scorer and 95-point player. He is even on pace for over 100 hits for the first time in his career. Barring a lengthy cold streak, this looks like a big miss.

Kyle Connor

After back-to-back seasons being under a point-per-game player, my projections weren't kind to Connor, putting him just over a point-per-game rate with 38 goals and 45 assists. Factor in that he usually has very low hit/block totals, and the outlook wasn't rosy. In fact, I had him ranked as a seventh-round pick where he was often going in the second, maybe the third round of my drafts. I just did not see the value.

Well, Connor is currently pacing for 44 goals and 55 assists. He has even chipped in 15 blocks in 30 games, so while the hits are still very low, at least he's bringing some of the secondary stats. He currently sits 19^th in the league with 1.2 points per game, and he and Leon Draisaitl are the only players with at least 35 points and under 10 power play points. It is a wonder what Connor's production would look like if he was putting up PPPs like he did in 2021-22 and 2022-23.

A big help for Connor this year is both Gabriel Vilardi and Mark Scheifele have been his consistent line mates, both have been healthy, and they're both inside the 80^th percentile by goals per minute. That is helping Connor's assist totals and with his usual shot/goal volume, it's jacking his production. As long as that line stays healthy and productive, Connor looks to be in line for another 40-40 season, at minimum. 

Quinn Hughes

My problem with Hughes was that he was consistently being drafted as a top-5 defenceman in multi-cat formats. He is one of the best defencemen in the league but, up to this year, has never produced a single season with any of 200 shots, 80 blocks, or 30 hits. Considering his lack of peripherals, he was closer to a top-15 defenceman than a top-5 defenceman by my rankings.

Most of that has remained true. Hughes is on pace for 76 blocks and 15 hits, which is very low peripheral production. However, his current pace is for 267 shots, which is 34% higher than his prior career-best. If he can keep up that shot volume and push for 20 goals, it is enough to offset that peripheral issues. As it is, he is a top-3 defenceman by both standard Yahoo! leagues and ESPN points formats.

That shot volume will be key. I would remind everyone that through 27 games last year, Hughes had 78 shots, a pace of 237 shots; he then posted 121 shots in his next 55 games and finished under 200 for the season. If he has a similar drop off, it will hurt his peripheral stature, and likely his goal production, too. If he can maintain that volume, though, he very well could be in line to be a top-5 fantasy defenceman this season, multi-cat format or not.