Frozen Tool Forensics: Power-Play Defencemen and Changing Roles for Spurgeon, Ekblad, Dunn, and Others
Chris Kane
2024-12-13
Today on Frozen Tool Forensics we are going to spend some time digging into power-play defensemen. For the most part we know who the big names are on each team, but throughout the year there are usually changes happening with that deployment. These can be because of injury, the emergence of a new player, or a coach just wanting to switch things up.
In order to look at this we are going to pull two sets of data, one for the last two weeks of NHL games, and one from the first month and a half of the season. The idea is to compare the two and see who all is getting good power-play deployment, and then further who has had their fortunes change recently compared to the start of the season.
Overall, there are a couple of interesting things to note. For the last two weeks, I set a threshold of 55% of the power-play time to get a picture of who the top power-play guy has been over this time period. As might not be a surprise, not all positions are created equal. To start with there are only 27 players on that list, and 26 individual teams. For those of you quick at math you will realize that means there are six teams that are not represented, and therefore have power-play defenseman who are not getting over 55% of the time on ice. Those teams are Toronto, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Los Angeles, Calgary, and Philadelphia. A couple of those teams have actual top units, though the personnel has been split over the time period (San Jose, Philadelphia, and sort of Calgary), and then there are teams where there is sort of supposed a top guy, but the data is really inconsistent (LA, and Toronto), and then there is whatever is happening in Pittsburgh. They seem to be going for some kind of split power play where both look kind of bad.
Even once you hit that 55% threshold there is still a pretty wide variation in time. At the top of the ticket, we have guys like Jared Spurgeon, Evan Bouchard, Quinn Hughes, and Cale Makar who are getting 80% of their team's total power-play time. On the other hand, Charlie McAvoy, Josh Morrisey, Noah Dobson, and Alex Vlasic are all below 65% of their team's power-play share.
Let's now dig into some D who have increased their deployment over this recent time period. The following table contains some basic player information (name, position, team), stats over the past two weeks (games played, points per game, and percent of the team's power-play), then the power-play data from the beginning of the year, and finally the change between the two power-play sets.
Jared Spurgeon was injured for a bit of the beginning of the season, but was elevated to the top unit on November 29th. He has seen as much as 93.5 percent of the team's power-play and never less than 69%. He hasn't exactly been jumping off the score sheet during that time period, but the Minnesota power play is certainly an interesting place to be and while he is there he definitely bears watching. Conversely Brock Faber, who had been on that top unit, is obviously no longer there. Without that top power play, or consistent production from peripherals he is a lot less interesting.
Jakob Chychrun has been getting a run on the top unit since November 21st. He has been getting this opportunity because of Alex Ovechkin's injury. He has been much more productive than Spurgeon with five points over seven games between November 25th and December 7th. Ovechkin is on track to return in two to three weeks so Chychrun's run here may be limited though he is certainly an exciting hold while he is on that top unit.
The Aaron Ekblad saga continues. Florida really has seemed to want to try every other possible d-man for several seasons here. Florida did not really seem to add a real challenger to the blue line in the off season and yet Uvis Balinskis and Adam Boqvist both saw significant opportunity in the beginning of the season. After November 23rd Ekblad has been seeing a most of the team's power-play time though. It is hard to expect that this is settled given how hard Florida has seemed to work to keep Ekblad off of the top power-play but pay attention while he is there.
Vince Dunn returned from injury on November 30th and has generally gotten above 60% of the power play since then. There have been games where both he and Brandon Montour were on the same unit, though Ryker Evans getting briefly injured seems to have prompted Seattle to split up Montour and Dunn again. This one bears watching as it wasn't entirely clear in the off season which of Dunn and Montour would get the lion's share of power-play duties, or if it would end up being a pretty even split. In recent weeks the winner seems to be Dunn in terms of time, but the unit that is actually being producing is the other unit with Montour and Shane Wright. That has led Montour to predictably having a bit less time overall as once they score the power-play ends.
Michael Matheson was injured for a couple of games at the end of November and Lane Hutson stepped onto the top unit. He was already the heir apparent to that role, but it wasn't entirely clear when he would take it over. With Matheson missing some games it was clearly an opportunity for Hutson to step up, and he has. Matheson still has gotten big power-play deployment a couple of times since then, but Hutson has certainly been there more frequently. Hutson is also on fire with three power-play points over four games from December 3rd to 9th. Given his youth and that Matheson was an incumbent there to start the season, Hutson might cede time back at some point, and was moved off the power play late in Montreal's loss on Thursday night.
Finally, Alex Vlasic is somehow quarterbacking a top power-play. He is there mostly because Seth Jones is out, but has been doing it since November 16th or so. He isn't blowing the doors off or anything but does have four power-play points over that period to go along with some pretty decent shot and block rates, plus he had four points over five games from November 29th to December 7th. While he is not the most exciting name on this list, he is probably the most available, and seems to be providing worthwhile production until Jones returns.
That is all for this week.
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