DFS Saturday: Bolting Down on the Lightning
Andrew Santillo
2024-12-14
Happy Saturday! This is an interesting slate today and at this point I'm still not 100% sure how I'm going to build but I do have an idea. Before we dive in there's one obvious smash spot here that I'll touch on really quick. If you want to play the Colorado top line at home against Nashville, I'm not in any way at all going to be the one that tells you no. With that, let's check this slate out!
Slate Preview:
Pittsburgh vs Ottawa
I think Pittsburgh has maybe been getting unlucky for a while now and the stats back it up. At even strength in the past month, they're right up towards the top in shots for, high danger chances, and even on the power play they've been alright which is something we haven't seen much of from this Pittsburgh team. I think there's two playable lines here as well, going into Ottawa who is the only team on this slate that played yesterday.
Each of the Penguins top two lines are as of right now, fully correlated, but there is some buyer beware with that. The Pens do tend to shake up their lines a fair bit and I don't want to have a single entry submitted to get lines that could get broken up. In three lineups, they're right up there and I think they do have to get some consideration here. I try to play as little Penguins as possible in DFS. I've just been burned here too many times to where I usually say I won't go back to the table. All that said, I might go back to the table, so this time it'll work out, right?
For the Senators, this is a back-to-back coming back from travel, but there's nothing on this Pens team that would worry me and there's certainly no worries at all on who they'll be facing in net. There's three playable lines here, with either of the top six as a priority for me but whatever I build with the Senators I will likely have Brady Tkachuk ($8,800) in my mix as he has the highest shots on goal per game right now in the NHL at 4.29.
As I scroll through different tournaments on nights where the Senators are on the slate, they usually seem like a popular play, so if you're going in the Ottawa direction you can make a power-play stack and get over the field on how much exposure you have. As I mentioned, I haven't built yet and likely be a single-entry warrior tonight, but there's a real solid chance that Ottawa is in my mix here tonight.
Tampa vs Seattle
So I'd love to get to some Tampa tonight, but I don't know how they fit overall in my build. The top line is priced up which limits what I can do and with Victor Hedman possibly not playing, Darren Raddysh ($2,900) is going to be a cheap play but also a very popular one. I don't mind going to the top line here if that's what you want to target, but even dropping down and getting an Anthony Cirelli ($5,200) – Brandon Hagel ($7K) two-man is in play for me.
For the home Kraken, I have been singing this clubs praises this week and wish that Draft Kings didn't split the slate on Thursday because they would have 100% been in my mix and I'd likely have some DK dollars right now in my account. The issue here is if I want to go back to the well. Earlier this week, the Kraken made sense against a struggling Bruins team and even offered great value against the Panthers. But I'm not sure I'm as confident against the Lightning.
This might be a night to where I maybe go double defensemen in this game and stay away from the skaters? If Joey Daccord is in net as well, then I don't mind going that route either. Right now, in single entry, they're probably outside looking in, and I think that's probably the case as well for 3-max.
Boston vs Vancouver
I can't say that I've played a ton of Boston here and may be more on the Vancouver side of this one, but let's talk B's for a second here. If Thatcher Demko is in net tonight, he looked okay but not great in his first start back from injury. If instead of Demko it's Kevin Lankinen, he got a shutout in his last start on Thursday against Florida.
If I'm going to Boston, David Pastrnak ($8,700) is obviously in the mix here even at his price, but I don't really know just how else I'd build around the B's. I don't know if I get down to the Boston second line to maybe two-man stack Brad Marchand ($5,900) and Elias Lindholm ($5K) if healthy but maybe that's a way to get different here tonight. If this was a smaller slate, Boston might get more run here for me, but I'll likely be on the other side of this one.
With that, let's talk Vancouver! I'm here for some Canucks tonight and while I was prepping my build, it felt like loading up a plate of food at a holiday party. Maybe I'll go Elias Pettersson ($6,600) and Jake DeBrusk ($5,300) …but add J.T. Miller ($5,800) okay now we're cooking here. But wait, wait, wait, I try and play Quinn Hughes ($7,600) whenever I can, ah shucks, maybe let's full on power play stack here.
Defensemen:
As mentioned above, my guy Quinn Hughes is on the slate so that's an automatic bid into the consideration pile. I do like Brandon Montour ($6,400) and Vince Dunn ($5,200) for Seattle defensemen here tonight if my build takes me that direction. In the upper to mid-priced range, Jakob Chychrun for Washington at $5,500 is interesting to me and I'll consider Jake Walman here as well at $5,300. For the bottom shelf defensemen tonight, Tyler Myers is fine at $3,600, Pavel Mintyukov at that same price, and my guy Brandon Tanev at $3,500 and Brandon Carlo ($3,400), right below him are our shot blockers for the evening.
Goalies:
For goaltenders tonight I don't mind either goalie in the Tampa/Seattle game, depending on what side you're on, I think Linus Ullmark for Ottawa is a good play at $7,800, and Jeremy Swayman ($7,500) for those not on Vancouver…maybe.
For the cheaper options, it looks like the Dustin Wolf train has arrived at the station, which is a bummer because I can't say I'm pumped to play Dan Vladar if he's in net. Lukas Dostal down at $7,400 might be where I decide to go, as he looked good versus Toronto, but if it's John Gibson in net, I'll happily remake my lineup to throw on everyone I can from Columbus and do it with a smile. Sam Montembeault for the Habs tonight up against Winnipeg is a decent play too, and cheap enough to be able to really build a fun lineup here tonight.
Good luck tonight everybody!
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