Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

For my most recent monthly poll, I listed 20 skaters doing better than expected and asked readers to vote for those they thought would end 2024-25 with a scoring pace at or above what it was at that time. I figured it would be fun to select the three Goldipucks skaters (Travis Konecny, Tim Stutzle, Jake Walman) from that same list , to see what the "numbers" tell us as far as who is indeed too hot, but also who's actually too cold, and lastly, who's scoring rate thus far has been "just right." Try to sniff out the answers before reading on, to see if you nail all three. All stats are current for games through December 13th.

Travis Konecny (30 GP, 15 G, 21 A, 82 SOG, 21:10 TOI, 7 PPPts, 2:57 PP, 62.1% PP%)

Konecny was a late first round pick, and then was in the NHL to stay as a teen, bypassing the AHL entirely. He followed the Dobber blueprint, as in his fourth full season, his first after hitting his 200-game breakout threshold, his scoring pace spiked from 49 points to 76. But those who thought he'd officially arrived were disappointed to see him dip back to the 50s in the next two seasons, before a point per game 2022-23, only to see that followed by dip again, albeit this time only to a 73-point pace. For 2024-25 however, he's emerged scorching, and looks well on his way to eclipsing his prior bests. It is for real, or just an mirage? I'm sorry to say Konecny owners, but what we're seeing from him so far isn't sustainable.

On the surface, some things look just fine. His TOI overall is up compared to his point per game 2022-23 campaign, with less PK duty. His SH%, though seemingly high, is right in line with that season as well. Plus, his PPTOI is identical as well. But his rate of PPPts is also identical, which would be fine if he was at a point per game level yet again, but he's not. Also, it took him just 16 games to equal his career best in PPGs, which was five. He's since added a PPG, to put him at six, but on only 21 PPSOGs, for a PP SH% of 28%. When he had five PPGs in his career best 2022-23 season, that was on 28 SOG. It's not a big boost that he's received in this area, but likely a couple of extra PPGs thus far.

There's more though. Philly is shooting 7.2% while he is on the ice, which would mark a career low. You're probably thinking how is that bad, when it can only go up? Perhaps, although it's been between 7.5% and 8.5% in each of the past five seasons, suggesting if it rises it won't be by much. Also, although Konecny's secondary assists rate is a pretty decent 38.1%, for him that's high, as his average over the past three seasons was 27.5%. So right there is about a handful of points he's tallied that he should not have.

Getting back to the PP, not only does everyone with more points than Konecny also have more PPPts, but if we discount Brandon Hagel the next highest point total from anyone with fewer PPPts than Konecny is Ivan Barbashev, with seven fewer points. Yet amazingly Konecny likely has more PPPts than he should, as his PP IPP is 80.0%, having averaged 60.7% in his past three seasons, and only 68.2% in his prior best 2022-23 campaign. It's a double whammy in that he has more points than he should because he has too few PPPts, yet his PP IPP suggests he's tallied more PPPts than he should. Not a good combination.

Then there's IPP in general, and Konecny's stands at a staggering 90.0%, meaning that he tallied his 36 points on only a total of 40 goals scored while he was on the ice. Looking at the players above him in scoring, only five are above 80.0% in overall IPP, and they happen to be Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Kirill Kaprizov, and Mitch Marner, and of them only Draisaitl is over 85%. I realize that is fine company to be in; but with all due respect to Konecny, these are superstars with proven track records, all of whom had hit 90+ points well before this point in Konecny's career. Yes, Konecny has had an IPP of 71% or higher in every one of his full seasons, which is indeed impressive; but only on two prior occasions was it over 80%, with it being 82.4% in his prior best 2022-23 campaign. Although Konecny is not in as uncharted territory as someone else might be under the same circumstances, he's still pacing unsustainably in terms of IPP.

Another thing to consider about Konecny's IPPs is that he's mainly playing – as he did in the second half of last season – with Owen Tippett. For the 2023-24 second half, Tippett had 27 points in 35 games, for a 63-point scoring pace, while Konecny had 29 in 33 contests, for a 72 point scoring pace. Fast forward to now, and Tippett's pace is 44, or down considerably, while Konecny's is 98, or up even more considerably. Tippett's IPP last season was 71.6% but is only 53.5% for 2024-25. Looking at these numbers, it sure seems that Konecny has syphoned points away from Tippett. In the long haul, given Tippett's shooting rate and what he showed last season, things should balance out more, leading to Tippett's scoring going up, and Konecny's falling.

Let's also not forget the coach for whom Konecny plays. John Tortorella has coached a total of 14 full 82 game seasons for four different teams. In those 14 seasons, there were a total of two points per game or better players, Marion Gaborik, who had 86 points in 76 games, and Artemi Panarin who had 82 in 81 in one season and 87 in 79 in another. That's it. Not only did Panarin go on to have far, far better seasons, but Torts was the coach when, right during their prime, the Sedin brothers combined for 97 points in 143 games. If that wasn't bad enough, there were fewer than a handful of other players who even scored at a 70-point pace under Torts. Simply put, teams coached by John Tortorella do not have players who score at the level Konecny is.

Make no mistake – you have to be a very talented player to have had an IPP of 71% or higher for as many seasons as Konecny has. But the reality is it's never been accompanied by a high team SH%, and isn't again this season. Instead, his IPP is too high; and despite a low PP total, he's also scoring more there than he should. He also plays for John Tortorella, so although it is not abnormal for Konecny to factor into the scoring, the greater extent to which he has this season, coupled with the other factors listed, indicates that his 2024-25 thus far has been TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 8.75, as he is more like the 80- to 85-point player he was in 2022-23.

Tim Stutzle (29 GP, 10 G, 26 A, 58 SOG, 19:58 TOI, 14 PPPts, 3:26 PP, 63.0% PP%)

Grabbed third overall by Ottawa in 2020, it wasn’t surprising when Stutzle went straight to the NHL. He produced at a modest 45-point pace, then progressed to 60 as a sophomore, before a jump to a 95-point pace in his third season. Amidst sky high expectations though, Stutzle failed to hit the point per game mark in 2023-24, although it was later revealed he played hurt essentially all season. Now he's doing even better than 2022-23; but can he keep it up? Yes, and in fact he's poised to do even a bit better before all is said and done this season.

We can see that Stutzle's TOI, both overall and on the PP, are down as compared to 2022-23. The Sens are scoring at a comparable rate to 2022-23 though, namely 3.10 goals per game as opposed to 3.15. They are succeeding at a less is more approach. Plus, on the PP they're clicking at 27.0%, up from 23.5%. It's not unreasonable for Stutzle to be doing as well as he is, and perhaps there is even room for improvement, as although his TOI is down his PK duty has vanished and his OZ% is 63.9% versus 59.6% in 2022-23. He's doing this well despite lower ice time, which realistically can only go up. Thus, with respect to TOI he's legit, with perhaps room to grow, which should help pad his point total. 

Stutzle's SH% might look elevated, but it's right at the level it was in 2022-23, and may even have room to rise, as he's seemingly reinvented himself as a pass first center. This has roots in last season, when Stutzle began to shoot less due to his wrist injury, and apparently it stuck. The difference is he's firing even fewer pucks on the net now, but has regained the pinpoint accuracy he had in 2022-23. That is a good combination.

Stutzle's rate of assists isn't just padding his point total, it's putting him in elite company. As of now, he's on pace to finish the season with 74 assists. Dating back to 2000-01, there have been 20 instances of a forward who tallied at least that many assists, with all but one averaging at least as many SOG as Stutzle. The lowest points per game rate among them was 1.17, with only one other being below 1.30. Going by percentages among these examples, Stutzle should indeed have room to see his scoring increase still further. Although Stutzle's shooting rate is down, it's actually not an issue. In fact, his points per game rate in games where he had zero or one SOG is 1.3, or slightly above his season rate. As such, we need not worry if Stutzle fails to boost his SOG number, as he has already shown he can produce whether he fires the puck on the net or not.

Looking at the PP, Stutzle is on a nearly PPPt per every other game rate, which would be far and away above his prior best of 28 in 79 games. Looking back at those same 20 who had 73+ assists, all but three had at least a PPPt per every other game. Stutzle's lack of PPGs should not hamper him either, as nearly half of the 20 didn't reach double digits in PPGs. Plus, although Stutzle's PP scoring rate is way up, his PP IPP is down as compared to the 2022-23 season, 63.6% versus 66.7%. Not only is Stuzle not overachieving in terms of PP scoring, but he's a good bet to improve.

Also, Stutzle has room to see more points because of how many games in which he's not scored. The 12 forwards with more points than him have tallied a point in at least 67.8% of their games, with seven being at 75% or higher. Meanwhile, Stutzle has a point in just 53.1% of games played thus far. To find someone with a lower percentage, you have to go all the way down to Nico Hischier, who has nine fewer points. Yet Stutzle also lags in number of multipoint games, with just nine, while everyone above him in scoring is in double digits and half have at least 13. There is room both for Stutzle to be more consistent and more explosive. In fact, there seems like lots of room based on this data.

Yes, Stutzle's secondary assist rate of 61.5% is a bit high; however, it was higher in his 2022-23 season, and that was when he was still sniping. And even if he has lucked into maybe a few extra points due to his rate being that high, it's far fewer than he stands to gain based on the other factors I've observed. Plus, although Stutzle is well past his 200-game breakout threshold, if we consider 2023-24 to be somewhat of a lost season due to him playing hurt, then him rising to a new level of scoring now is even less surprising.

Those who felt Stutzle was only starting to scratch the surface in 2022-23 do indeed seem like they were onto something. Stutzle has reinvented himself as a pass first player and is succeeding, plus, as is apparent, has room to still further improve. For these reasons, his 2024-25 has been TOO COLD so far, and he gets a rating of 3.25, as I'd expect him to be at or above 110 points by season's end.

Jake Walman (27 GP, 5 G, 17 A, 70 SOG, 22:42 TOI, 5 PPPts, 2:42 PP, 51.3% PP%)

Drafted in 2014, Walman played two seasons in college, producing over a point per game in the second. That didn't translate to the pros, as even in the AHL his numbers were, frankly, unremarkable. The Blues trialed him for parts of three seasons, but with barely any ice time, before dishing him to the Wings, where he saw an uptick in TOI, but still no chance to strut his stuff. Given a fresh start on San Jose this season after kicking off his success in Detroit, Walman has no impediments to ice time and deployment, and he's seemingly shown he's had talent to offer all along. But is this just a short-term scoring burst or could it be the real deal? Most likely the latter.

Walman seems to fit the mold of a come from nowhere player; but seeds of talent had been bubbling beneath the surface prior to this season. Take the PP. He had four PPPts despite only 42:21 of PP time in 2023-24. No d-man who logged less PP time had more PPPts, nor did any who also had just four. And his PP IPP was 100%, showing less so that he was lucky but that when given the opportunity he could produce on the man advantage. Heck, even when he tallied a lowly two PPPts in 2022-23, that still translated to a 66.7% PP IPP.

Simply put, he showed he was capable of scoring on the PP. But if so, why does he not have more than just five PPPts in 27 games? Well, he had just one in his first 14 games, meaning he has four in 13 contests. He shouldn't be judged on his season as a whole in terms of the PP, but instead on when he got a real chance. That is also important when looking at his production as a whole. Some might think he has no shot of sustaining a 67-point pace for the season; however, consider that he had just two points in his first nine games, meaning that for 18 games he's clicked at better than a point per game pace. In reality, Walman is doing far better than it seems, making it more likely he can indeed maintain his overall pace.

Going back to the PP, Walman has zero PPGs despite firing nine PP SOG. I realize nine is not a huge number; however, it puts him tied for 30th among all d-men, and only a handful of those ahead of him also have zero PPGs. But what is strange is despite Walman's run of top production, he took the ice for under 40% of the team's man advantage minutes in two of his last four games, and was under 60% in the three prior. Yes, he was at 62.9% and 78.1% in his two most recent contests, with a PPPt to show for it, but it seems like the Sharks are not quite fully committed to Walman being a true PPQB.

But what weighs in Walman’s favor in terms of continuing to score at or near the rate he has thus far is despite one single point in two of his first nine contests, he has points in 55.5% of his total games, a rate higher than the likes of Rasmus Dahlin, Adam Fox, Erik Karlsson, Shea Theodore, Dougie Hamilton and Morgan Rielly. On the flip side, he's only had multipoint games in 18.5% of his games. That is an area where he might have a harder time seeing improvement, as although the Sharks are a team on the rise, they're still in the bottom third of the NHL in goals per game with 2.75. They have capable scorers in Mikael Granlund, Macklin Celebrini, William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund. So although I can see Walman likely being able to maintain his rate of games with at least a point, it may be too tall an order to see his multipoint game percentage rise.

Also interesting is that Walman is breaking out just near the 200-game mark, when usually it takes until game 400 for late blooming d-men to truly shine. Recent cases in point are Josh Morrissey and Brandon Montour. If we look at Montour, he was 28 when he broke out, which is the same age as Walman now, while Morrissey did it roughly a decade after being drafted, just like Walman is doing this season. Walman has something in common with both of the most recent come from nowhere success stories on D. Thus, we should not discount Walman's success due to it coming sooner (in terms of total games played) than would be expected for a late bloomer.

Those quick to discount Walman due to his lack of track record and team should look at the likes of Montour and Morrissey as being more like Walman than not. But Walman is not as prone to multi-point games, and the Sharks are a bottom third team in goals per game; so although he's been above the point per game in his last 18 contests, he will regress to an extent that his 2024-25 as a whole is JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.75, as I expect him to land right around 65 points when all is said and done this season.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has plenty of room for more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.