Looking Ahead: Love Minnesota, Leave Calgary

Andrew Santillo

2024-12-20

Welcome back in, everyone! Before we dive in, I just want to give some quick fantasy advice, not related to the schedule…I've been in fantasy hockey now for what feels like 30, maybe even 40, year's now. Someday when I write my book, I'll mention that one of my fantasy hockey manifestos is that your first trade has to be your best trade. Every league has "trade guy" in it and for us, those calls and texts usually happen on a Sunday and are sometimes lopsided. I love trading and encourage, but wheelin' and dealin' means that you got to give something up to get something of value in return. Unless of course your league also has clueless trade guy, in which case I'll let your league decide how to handle Jesper Bratt being dealt for nothing…this was something that happened in our league two seasons ago. What a night that was for the group chat.

Stats do not include Thursday's games.

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Matt Grzelcyk, D, Pittsburgh Penguins (Rostered in 4% of ESPN leagues, 22% Fantrax, 1% Yahoo)
– Speaking of my book, the chapter on Erik Karlsson is going to be a doozy…so let's talk Matt Grzelcyk!

My best buddy is a Pens fan, and I texted him last Friday while being less than no help putting up Christmas decorations that I thought the Pens were looking alright as of late and that I didn't mind the top two lines. I also sent a funny picture of a Psyduck Pokemon with a Pirates flat bill hat on along with that message because hey, why not. While I was talking in the text about the top six though, I hadn't really given much thought to Matt Grzelcyk until filling out a DFS lineup recently. Grzelcyk has become a player I've kept my eye on in fantasy with four points in his last five games, nine shots in his last two, all while adding three minutes of ice time to his average over the season.

For an Immediate Fix as well, the Pens will play only once this week but are one the very few clubs that will be in action three times next week. Depending on how your league's matchup period looks during the Christmas break, having a defensemen on your roster three times might be valuable as there are a handful of clubs that will basically be off next week all together.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Gabriel Vilardi, C/RW, Winnipeg Jets (Rostered in 37% of ESPN leagues, 82% Fantrax, 48% Yahoo)
– The Winnipeg Jets have one of the best records in hockey, and haven't broken up their top line all season. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele are obviously rostered in your league, so why are we overlooking Gabriel Vilardi, especially over on ESPN.

Vilardi is playing excellent right now with eight points in his last five games and along with that is playing on the NHL team that scores more goals off the rush than everyone except Washington (those two have swapped 1-2 at times this season). While the Jets have had an easy schedule this week with games against the Sharks and Ducks, it does get a little tougher for them upcoming with Minnesota, Toronto, and a sneaky Ottawa club on the horizon, but I really like Vilardi in these spots. Another nice perk here as well and that's in most leagues he's multi position eligible which is excellent for ease in filling out a roster. Otherwise, you could have a log jam at RW like yours truly will on Saturday.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Dustin Wolf, G, Calgary Flames (Rostered in 40% of ESPN leagues, 86% Fantrax, 63% Yahoo)
– So I was late getting on the Dustin Wolf train here and when I finally got on in DFS, it was on one of the nights recently where he allowed four goals leading to a Flames loss. I thought this job would be Wolf's moving forward, but since that time it's been a split net.   

So, Wolf lets in four goals versus Columbus at the end of November, big deal. Happens in all walks of life whether you're an NHL goaltender or say, data analyst on NHL 25 at 11 at night. I did think at the time that the Flames would ride him out and see how he responds, but that led to three straight starts by Dan Vladar, then six goals allowed against the Stars, just to then sit again the following two games. The Odd-Man Out here isn't just performance driven, it's that this might have been a goaltender that many out there were interested in adding as a full time starter but looks like going forward may be splitting time. I don't mind him here as a spot start here or there or maybe in one of your DFS lineups going up against the Senators, but for a long-term fit it may be better to look elsewhere for now.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Alex Tuch, RW, Buffalo Sabres (Rostered in 88% of ESPN leagues, 97%, Fantrax, 87% Yahoo)
– I don't like it when the Anchor part of the article comes and I'm writing about players in the NHL that I cheer for or players that I roster in fantasy. This one fits both of those marks.

There's been a decline here and some of that has to do with Tuch's linemates and power play time. Two seasons ago Tuch was excellent for fantasy with 36 goals and 43 assists. Coming into last season there may have been a little bit of hesitancy, but he was solid with 22 goals and 37 assists. This season though, the goals are starting to regress further as Tuch sits at nine goals with 16 assists.

I do think that there's a real chance that production starts to increase for him here but a week-long dry spell on the scoresheet had me nervous. I'd hate to say that he's an outright Anchor here because the upside is still there, but given how Buffalo has been playing recently I have concerns. He's not an outright drop, but if you're between Tuch and another winger, you might be better off with Tuch left on the bench.

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs through December 20th – December 30th

Minnesota – On a week upcoming where games will be scarce, the Wild be in action five times from tomorrow on into next week. They're a Love 'Em off games played alone.  

Detroit
– The Wings may not be in a playoff spot right now, but they have two games upcoming against the Habs. Have to like the Wings in the short term in what will be great matchups.

Boston
– Boston has two games against Columbus upcoming, and that might be more interest in DFS than anything else. Boston is a Love 'Em this week.  

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Ottawa
– This Sens club has been quietly stacking up points recently but their only two games on the schedule next week will be against Winnipeg and Minnesota. That's a tough ask. They're a Leave 'Em for now.

Calgary
– Same as the Sens above, just not a lot of games on the schedule upcoming for a Calgary club that by Corsi for at all strengths has been excellent the past week.

Colorado
– Colorado has to be one of the more popular clubs in fantasy, and they are most certainly one of the most popular in DFS. Only one game next week, though, makes them a Leave 'Em.

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 20 - 19:12 DET vs MTL
Dec 20 - 19:12 WSH vs CAR
Dec 20 - 19:12 BUF vs TOR
Dec 20 - 19:12 FLA vs STL
Dec 20 - 20:12 DAL vs NYR
Dec 20 - 20:12 MIN vs UTA
Dec 20 - 22:12 ANA vs COL

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
ALEXANDRE CARRIER MTL
KAAPO KAKKO SEA
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LOGAN COOLEY UTA
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
ELVIS MERZLIKINS CBJ
STUART SKINNER EDM
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MTL Players
20.1 NICK SUZUKI JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY COLE CAUFIELD
19.2 BRENDAN GALLAGHER CHRISTIAN DVORAK JOSH ANDERSON
18.8 EMIL HEINEMAN JAKE EVANS JOEL ARMIA

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