Ramblings: A Christmas Wish List Including Kirill Marchenko, Thomas Harley, Mathew Barzal, Utah’s Scoring, and More – December 24

Michael Clifford

2024-12-24

Merry Christmas Eve, everyone! Regardless of which, if any, holiday is celebrated, I hope everyone can find some downtime to relax with family and friends.

The NHL is on its holiday break, so I thought I would take today to do something a little more fun. Let's go around the league and do a Christmas Wish List, or which presents I would like to see in the second half of the NHL season. These could be player role changes, call-ups, trades, or whatever else comes to mind. All stats presented are as of Sunday morning, and from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, or Frozen Tools.

More Minutes for Kirill Marchenko

This has already started, to some degree, as Marchenko has regularly been over the 17-minute mark in the month of December, even surpassing 19 minutes on a few occasions. Overall, his ice time is up over a minute and a half from 2023-24, so it's hard to complain too much, but he sits at an even 18 minutes per game in December, compared to 18:11 across 22 games through the end of November.

It has been a great start to the season already for Marchenko, who sits with 12 goals and 22 assists in 34 games. He is well on his way to a 70-point season, and has shown tremendous chemistry on the top line with Sean Monahan. It is to the point that of 45 forward pairs with at least 300 minutes together at 5-on-5, they are 1 of 8 that are averaging at least 4.2 goals per 60 minutes, and they are comparable to some of the elite lines in the NHL (with a special shout out to Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther):

If Marchenko can get to the 19- to 20-minute range regularly, he can be a point-per-game, 250-shot winger this season. He has steadily improved every season and is cementing himself as a cornerstone for Columbus. Not only would more minutes help me, a selfish fantasy owner, but it would probably help the team as they have some depth forwards that are struggling this season and probably shouldn't be getting the minutes that they are.

Thomas Harley's Power Play Role

Dallas does a very funny thing with their power play. They split units, which isn't a surprise, and the forwards are basically a 55/45 time share. The second unit has often been the better power play unit this season, so kudos to all of you out there with Mason Marchment or Matt Duchene on your fantasy rosters.

However, they only do that with the forwards. As for the defencemen, Miro Heiskanen almost always gets priority on the power play, regardless of which unit starts the power play. He could be on the ice for a minute prior to said power play, and still get first crack with the man advantage. That is why the forwards basically have a 55-45 split, but the defencemen are closer to 67-33 in favour of Heiskanen over Thomas Harley:

It is curious that is happening given the Duchene unit is much more productive by shot attempts and goals per minute with Harley than they are with Heiskanen. If Dallas wants to split the PP unit, then fine, but they should do the same with the defencemen, too. It would certainly help out the Harley fantasy managers among us. It'll be interesting to see if anything changes in the second half because Harley could be in line for an uptick if they do.

Philadelphia Acquires Another Centre

Sean Couturier has rebounded well this season after being a healthy scratch down the stretch in 2023-24. Whether he keeps that up is another matter, but so far, so good.

I am also a Morgan Frost fan, but it's clear that the coaching staff still has issues with him. He has been a healthy scratch already this season and, despite earning a regular second-line role for the last few weeks, has a long way to go to earn their trust. It makes me wonder if the Flyers shouldn't go out and get another offensive top-6 centre and move on from Frost.

As things stand right now, most teams are likely reticent to do that as much of the league is either in a playoff spot or not far off from one. Teams that are way out of the race – Nashville, Montreal, Columbus, Buffalo, Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim – don't really have top-6 centres that they would be willing to part with and the Flyers would be willing to acquire (Dylan Cozens notwithstanding).

This might be something for later in the season as we get closer to the Trade Deadline, but as more teams fall out of the playoff race, it would be nice to see the Flyers add some legitimate scoring punch that the coach won't healthy scratch. It would go a long way in helping guys like Joel Farabee and Matvei Michkov, too.

Utah Trades For Another Top-6 Winger

As things stand, Utah is firmly in the playoff race. Their top line of Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton, and Nick Schmaltz has largely been very good this season. The line of Jack McBain, Logan Cooley, and Dylan Guenther has produced very well at 5-on-5, but they've also done so with an unsustainably high shooting percentage. The Lawson Crouse/Nick Bjugstad/Matias Maccelli trio has struggled to score. It seems as if getting one more top-6 winger to replace one of Bjugstad/Maccelli/McBain might be the trick to getting three lines that can score consistently, and help push them over the top to a playoff spot.

Maybe the team waits to see if Maccelli can turn things around because he's typically been an excellent playmaker, but his numbers have suffered in that regard this season. If he can improve in the second half, it would go a long way to helping their scoring depth. At the same time, if he can't, and the Cooley line, erm, cools off, then there isn't a lot of reliable scoring depth at even strength. With a half-dozen teams within a half-dozen(ish) points of each other for two Wild Card spots in the West, adding one more top-6 winger could be the difference between a playoff spot or going home at the end of the regular season.

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I also say this as someone with a vested interest in Cooley and Guenther continuing their solid production, particularly Guenther. The team needs to shore up other areas – fewer penalties/better penalty kill – but they should be wary about being able to consistently score goals, and adding one more offensive winger would (should?) help.

Mathew Barzal Goes Nuclear

Barzal has missed time this year due to injury and has struggled to produce when he's been healthy. For a guy coming off a point-per-game season, what he's done when he's been in the lineup hasn't been good enough.

Through all their injuries, the New York Islanders have managed to stay within striking distance of a playoff spot. If they're going to get back to the postseason, they're going to need their stars to be stars – Ilya Sorokin, Noah Dobson, Bo Horvat, and Barzal all need to be difference-makers. We know that Barzal can be an elite playmaker when he's at his best, so let's hope he can be at his best for the rest of the season. It would be nice to see Barzal just run over the competition for three months, so he's going on the wish list.

Edmonton Stays Healthy

The Oilers have already endured absences from Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid, and Viktor Arvidsson with the shortest being McDavid at a little over a week and the longest being Arvidsson at over a month. This is not a team with the forward depth to be missing half of their top-6 forwards for an extended period, and now that everyone is getting healthy, let's hope they stay that way.

There is nothing that can derail a season like injuries – just look at the 2023-24 New Jersey Devils. It isn't as if the Oilers are in real danger of missing the playoffs right now, but if their forwards can't stay healthy for an extended period, well, weirder things have happened. Here is hoping that the Oilers find their groove, their top guys stay in the lineup, and they really take a leap in their goal scoring. Not only would it help fantasy managers like us, but the fans would appreciate it, and we've had enough NHL postseasons without the Oilers being a real threat to make a deep run.

Scott Perunovich Traded to Rebuilding Team

We all have our guys, right? As fantasy managers, we have to believe in the upside of certain players when few other people do in order to find that late-round gem that can help us win a fantasy title. Perunovich has been one of those guys for me, and I'm sure for some of the readers, for a while now. A litany of injuries has kept him from really rounding into form, but he's looked much better these last couple of seasons and, if he can stay healthy, still has the offensive upside to run a power play.

With Colton Parayko, Justin Faulk, Ryan Suter, Nick Leddy (injured), and Cam Fowler, the Blues have a veteran-laden defence group they rely on. Add Philip Broberg, who is now a regular for the team, and there is a lot of competition for Perunovich to stay in the NHL, let alone in the lineup, on a regular basis. He is a restricted free agent after this season and is one year from unrestricted free agency. If Torey Krug can return for the 2025-26 season, the Blues already have six defencemen signed. If he can't, they have five, and it's still an uphill battle for Perunovich.

My hope is that this is all finally put to rest, and he's traded to a rebuilding team that could use a lottery ticket on the blue line. Teams like Chicago, San Jose, and Detroit come to mind. Whether St. Louis goes through with it or not, I guess we'll find out soon enough (trading Pierre-Olivier Joseph appears to be a vote of confidence for Perunovich).

Jeremy Swayman Turns It Around

Boston has struggled for most of the season, sure, but Swayman is easily having his worst of his career. He just can't seem to find the consistency he needs as he'll have 2-3 good games in a row and then just get bombed in his next couple starts, and the cycle repeats itself. As someone who drafted a lot of Swayman in September and early October, it would be nice if he can find that consistency again.

It is hard to say what the problem is, exactly, but if he keeps doing this for the next four months, it will be hard for him to have consistent fantasy relevance. Not only through poor performances, but the Bruins could very well start giving more starts to Joonas Korpisalo, especially if they any sort of losing streak.  

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UPCOMING GAMES

May 14 - 19:05 TOR vs FLA
May 14 - 21:05 VGK vs EDM

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
MIKAEL GRANLUND DAL
MATTHEW KNIES TOR
MIRO HEISKANEN DAL
THOMAS HARLEY DAL
MARCO ROSSI MIN

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK WPG
ELVIS MERZLIKINS CBJ
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
JAKE OETTINGER DAL
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency EDM Players
23.4 RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS CONNOR MCDAVID ZACH HYMAN
19.9 VASILY PODKOLZIN KASPERI KAPANEN LEON DRAISAITL
15.7 EVANDER KANE ADAM HENRIQUE CONNOR BROWN

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