After missing the playoffs in the spring of 2024 due to a tiebreaker, the Detroit Red Wings had hopes of pushing into a playoff spot in the spring of 2025. However, heading into the 2024 holiday break, the Red Wings had a record of 13-17-4, which works out to a .441 points percentage, and that is the second-worst mark in the Eastern Conference. Despite ranking sixth by save percentage, the team ranks 26^th by overall goal share as they have been the worst offensive team at 5-on-5 in the East. Something had to give, which usually means the coach, and that's exactly what happened as Derek Lalonde was fired on Boxing Day, replaced by Todd McLellan. McLellan signed a multi-year contract, so he's going to be the guy for not only this season but going into the 2025-26 campaign. Let's break down what it means.

If there are two things that were Detroit hallmarks over recent seasons, it's a lack of scoring outside the power play and suspect defence/goaltending. The 2023-24 season saw them finish tied for sixth by total goals on the power play, finishing eighth by goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage. So far in 2024-25, they are tied for 10^th by total power play goals and are 10^th overall by goals per 60 minutes when up one (or two) men. That has been consistently good.  

They were also productive at even strength in 2023-24 – they finished 10^th by goals per 60 minutes that season. The issue was ending up 21^st by expected goals against at even strength last year, landing 26^th by shots against. With a bottom-10 save percentage at evens, they finished 25^th by goals against per 60 minutes because of the volume and quality allowed. Overall, in 2023-24, Detroit was a top-10 scoring team, but the team defence and goaltending were subpar, and it led to them just narrowly missing playoffs.

As mentioned, they have been good on the power play once again in 2024-25. However, the offence has suffered elsewhere as they are dead last by shots and expected goals-for per minute at 5-on-5, translating to being 31^st by actual goals-for per minute (only Nashville is worse). When looking at their even strength play, which includes 4-on-4 and 3-on-3 play, they are dead last across the board by shots, expected goals, and actual goals. It is a drastic drop from where they were last season, and this isn't a case where maybe they've had a run of bad luck; they are genuinely awful at consistently creating anything dangerous.

It should be noted that it's not necessarily an across-the-board issue. Detroit is scoring 3.2 goals per 60 minutes at even strength with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond on the ice. It isn't an elite rate, but it's good, even if it's a far cry from last season's mark of 4.2 goals/60. Also, the duo of J.T. Compher and Vladimir Tarasenko has been very good offensively in a limited sample. They haven't spent a lot of time together (92 minutes at even strength) because the team has struggled to score on their other two lines, so lineup changes have been frequent.

A big issue has been the play of Patrick Kane. He has frequently anchored the second line and Detroit is scoring just 1.7 goals per 60 minutes of even strength play with him on the ice. It is worth noting that the team is shooting just 7.1% with him on the ice at evens, against a mark of 10.2% across three teams from 2022-24, and 10.1% with Detroit last year. Shooting 10% wouldn't make for a good offensive mark, but it would help, and if McLellan needs anything to happen, it's that second line – often featuring Kane – to get going offensively.

Compounding the offensive issues is that the defence hasn't really improved. There have been some good moments, but overall, they are 23^rd by expected goals against at even strength, and 28^th by shots against. What has saved them is their goaltending – particularly Cam Talbot – has been a lot better, and that's saved them some goals.

If there is one thing McLellan teams do, it's push the pace. According to HockeyViz, the 2023-24 Los Angeles Kings generally pushed the pace offensively, as measured by expected goals for, regardless of the score:

It was generally the same things in 2021-22 and 2022-23 with Los Angeles. He also got the Edmonton Oilers to push the pace in 2018-19, as he also did in prior seasons with the team:

If there is one thing this Detroit Red Wings team needs to do at 5-on-5, it's push the pace offensively again. They can't get much worse defensively as it is, and they need to start scoring goals to win games. McLellan can do that, and that's good news for the fantasy values of not only the top options like Larkin and Raymond, but secondary options like Vladimir Tarasenko or even J.T. Compher.

McLellan also needs to help the team's penalty kill. Detroit has the second-worst mark by goals against per minute on the PK and it's something that is costing them wins. McLellan teams are generally fine, though not elite, on the PK, but any sort of improvement here will be very welcome.

One thing that should be noted is McLellan teams have struggled on the power play. From 2016-2019, Edmonton ranked 13^th by goals per minute with the man advantage. In 2019-20, their first season post-McLellan, they jumped to first by PP goals per minute (by a wide margin). That was even before Zach Hyman got there, and with Oscar Klefbom running the power play both with and without the coach, so there was a lot of overalp. The Kings haven't improved on the power play since McLellan left, but they were also a middle-of-the-pack team when he was there. He hasn't ran a high-end power play in a long time, and it's a wonder if he'll help or hurt Detroit there.

Overall, this should help boost the Red Wings at both ends at even strength. The question is the size of the improvement in even strength offence because there's a long way to go from their basement status to even being league average, and it's a lot to ask in the middle of the season. He needs to get more from his secondary players, and it's an open question whether this will help or hurt them on the power play. Any sort of PP decline may offset improvements made on the PK.

This should help their relevant fantasy players offensively, and any penalty-kill upgrade will be welcome for Talbot fantasy managers. However, they were mostly starting from such a low point that the size of the improvement may not be ‘league-winning’-type of stuff, but more of the ‘at least I don’t have to bench them’ variety.

*Data from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, and Frozen Tools