Ramblings: Keeping an Eye on Forsberg, Tsyplakov, Broberg, Zellweger, and More – December 27

Michael Clifford

2024-12-27

My last two Ramblings included a Christmas wish list as well as peering down the road for fantasy schedules we should keep an eye on. Those are two forward-looking articles, so let's keep that theme going, and take a spin around the league for players to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes.

These are just some players that have caught my eye and, for one reason or another, could be in for a big(ger) second half. Data from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools.

Filip Forsberg

It is too late for Nashville to turn their season around for a playoff push, but it's not too late for fantasy relevance. Their new top line of Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, and Jonathan Marchessault has found some offensive chemistry, and Forsberg has 12 assists in his last seven games. Though he has gone without a goal in 13 straight games, he also has 42 shots on goal in that span. In fact, going back further, he has just one goal on his last 60 shots, which works out to 1.7% shooting in that span. Across the 2021-2024 seasons, he averaged nearly 15% shooting.

Nashville has generally had a lot of trouble scoring, and the way they run their offence isn't very creative. For those reasons, I have my doubts Forsberg will be a 15% shooter the rest of the way. But even just being 10%, while being able to post around 3.5 shots per game, means about 16-17 goals the rest of the way. He is still laying hits, he is shooting a lot, his line is starting to score, and he's due for positive shooting regression. This is a player I would be buying low on right now.

Maxim Tsyplakov

All the rookie chatter has been around Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, and Lane Hutson. It should be noted that Tsyplakov is currently third among rookies by points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, trailing only Celebrini and Emil Heineman, and leads all rookies by total points at 5-on-5. He is also averaging well over two hits per game, so he has been a very good fantasy asset this season, particularly in banger leagues.

The New York Islanders have received healthy reinforcements from Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair, so there is now a lot of competition for ice time. That is a concern. What I will say is that while perusing the expected goals impacts this season on Evolving Hockey, I noticed that both his rate of actual goal differential at even strength, as well as expected goal differential, compared to some high-end forwards across the league:

Tsyplakov has been arguably the Islanders' best forward this year and has been able to drive positive results for all his line mates from Brock Nelson to Bo Horvat. Even with all the competition for ice time, if he keeps playing like this, he will be undeniable to the coaching staff.

Marco Rossi

Rossi has been great for the Wild, especially considering the extended absence from Joel Eriksson Ek and sub-standard play from centres Ryan Hartman and Frederick Gaudreau. If Rossi isn't having the season he's having, it's a wonder where this Wild team would be, given they've been on a mini slide of late anyway.

Rossi has 12 goals and 28 points in 35 games. He has also seen his ice time skyrocket lately because of the lacklustre play from their depth forwards and the injury to Eriksson Ek. That ice time, along with a role next to Kirill Kaprizov at all offensive strengths, has helped support his point production. Once the team rights the ship – and it will – it'll be curious to see how they use Rossi. I suspect he'll stay with Kaprizov at even strength, but does he lose his power play role to Eriksson Ek? He likely needs that power play time to stay relevant in a lot of leagues (he has a centre-only designation on Yahoo!), but he has been tremendous for the Wild, and maybe they reward him with that top PP role even if Eriksson Ek is healthy.

Jared McCann

It has been an up-and-down year for Seattle, though more downs than ups, and that's been mirrored in Jared McCann's production; he had 9 goals and 21 points in 18 games to start the season but has been mired in a slump, producing just three goals and six points in his last 18 games. Here is the thing: in those 18 games, Seattle has landed 157 shots on goal and scored just 11 times (7% shooting). In the first 18 games, the team shot 17% with him on the ice. While those are two extremes, the team shot over 10.5% with him on the ice in his prior two seasons, and 11% across his first three years with Seattle. If the team keeps this up, they will score more often, and his production will improve (and probably a lot).

Not only that, but McCann has just three goals on 50 shots in those last 18 games, which works to 6% shooting; this is a guy who shot at least 13% in his prior four seasons. He is due for a lot of positive regression, both from the team and from himself, and that portends a big second half. McCann looks like the most dangerous Kraken player on the ice most games I've seen, and the stats back that up. He is another guy, like Forsberg, to look to buy low on now.

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Emil Heineman

Celebrini leads rookies with seven goals scored at 5-on-5, and Heineman is the next on the list with six. By goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, he sits second, just a shade behind Celebrini, and is in the top-50 of the league (minimum of 300 minutes). Not too bad.

Of course, the shooting percentage is a big part of this; Heineman is shooting 22.2% at 5-on-5, and that won't keep up. The good news is that he's played well defensively as, according to Evolving Hockey, he's the only Canadiens with a positive impact on both expected goals against and actual goals against at even strength. It is a fourth-line role, so the competition isn't tough, but for a rookie, it's a positive sign, and something that will keep him in the lineup when the goals dry up.

Like Tsyplakov, Heineman is also laying the body with over two hits per game while in a fourth-line role. Montreal will be sellers at the trade deadline and when some players are moved out, maybe he moves up the lineup to a third-line role. He is someone to keep in mind in deeper banger leagues as we get closer to the trade deadline.

Philip Broberg

It is a shame Broberg has had a hard time staying healthy because he's having a solid first season in St. Louis. Injuries to the blue line has pushed him into a big role at times, and there was even a seven-game stretch in late November/early December that saw him play at least 21 minutes in all seven, and at least 23 minutes in five of them. As the blue line got a bit healthier, his ice time went down, but he's still consistently around the 20-minute mark with some power play time.

St. Louis can go on a run to push for a playoff spot, but they are definitely on the outside looking in, so it's a wonder what this blue line looks like in mid-March. Broberg has been noticeable (mostly good, some bad) on most nights, and is over a 40-point/82-game pace with solid hit and block totals. Both he and Dylan Holloway have been contributors coming over from Edmonton, but if Broberg can ever consistently earn top PP minutes, he could really take another step in the fantasy game. We shall see.

Olen Zellweger

Over the last four weeks, Zellweger is 1 of 10 defencemen averaging at least seven shots on goal per 60 minutes (he's top-5 by shot attempts and shots on goal per 60 minutes). It has made for 33 shots in 13 games, which isn't bad considering he's lost some top power play time and has seen some 18-minute games of late.

This is another defenceman to keep an eye on when the Trade Deadline rolls around. Not that Anaheim would be looking to shed guys like Radko Gudas, Brian Dumoulin, or Jacob Trouba, but… maybe? They already traded Cam Fowler, and there could be more on the way out. Zellweger is likely to see a middling role for the next couple of months, and Jackson LaCombe's play has given him genuine competition even as Pavel Mintyukov's play has fallen off, but there could be a nice run at the end of the season for Zellweger if he can keep shooting like this. He likely isn't going to be traded in keeper/dynasty formats, but keep an eye on the waiver wire in one-year leagues.

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