Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

—

The 17^th annual Midseason Fantasy Hockey Guide will be released January 16. You can pre-order it here and you can find a ‘secret’ (not really) coupon code for 10% off, to help battle the terrible US exchange rate. (Hint: simply move the mouse to the top of the screen and the discount code will appear)

—

1. Regardless of which holiday is celebrated, I hope everyone found some downtime to relax with family and friends. With the NHL on its holiday break, I thought I would do something a little more fun: a Christmas Wish List, or which presents I would like to see in the second half of the NHL season. These could be player role changes, call-ups, trades, or whatever else comes to mind. All stats presented are as of last Sunday morning, and from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, or Frozen Tools.

More Minutes for Kirill Marchenko

This has already started, to some degree, as Marchenko has regularly been over the 17-minute mark in the month of December, even surpassing 19 minutes on a few occasions. Overall, his ice time is up over a minute and a half from 2023-24, so it’s hard to complain too much, but he sits at an even 18 minutes per game in December, compared to 18:11 across 22 games through the end of November.

It has been a great start to the season already for Marchenko, who sits with 12 goals and 22 assists in 34 games. He is well on his way to a 70-point season, and has shown tremendous chemistry on the top line with Sean Monahan. It is to the point that of 45 forward pairs with at least 300 minutes together at 5-on-5, they are 1 of 8 that are averaging at least 4.2 goals per 60 minutes, and they are comparable to some of the elite lines in the NHL (with a special shout out to Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther).

If Marchenko can get to the 19- to 20-minute range regularly, he can be a point-per-game, 250-shot winger this season. He has steadily improved every season and is cementing himself as a cornerstone for Columbus. Not only would more minutes help me, a selfish fantasy owner, but it would probably help the team as they have some depth forwards that are struggling this season and probably shouldn’t be getting the minutes that they are. (dec24)

2. Thomas Harley‘s Power Play Role

Dallas does a very funny thing with their power play. They split units, which isn’t a surprise, and the forwards are basically a 55/45 time share. The second unit has often been the better power play unit this season, so kudos to all of you out there with Mason Marchment or Matt Duchene on your fantasy rosters.

However, they only do that with the forwards. As for the defencemen, Miro Heiskanen almost always gets priority on the power play, regardless of which unit starts the power play. He could be on the ice for a minute prior to said power play, and still get first crack with the man advantage. That is why the forwards basically have a 55-45 split, but the defencemen are closer to 67-33 in favour of Heiskanen over Thomas Harley.

It is curious that is happening given the Duchene unit is much more productive by shot attempts and goals per minute with Harley than they are with Heiskanen. If Dallas wants to split the PP unit, then fine, but they should do the same with the defencemen, too. It would certainly help out the Harley fantasy managers among us. It’ll be interesting to see if anything changes in the second half because Harley could be in line for an uptick if they do. (dec24)

3. Philadelphia Acquires Another Centre

Sean Couturier has rebounded well this season after being a healthy scratch down the stretch in 2023-24. Whether he keeps that up is another matter, but so far, so good.

I am also a Morgan Frost fan, but it’s clear that the coaching staff still has issues with him. He has been a healthy scratch already this season and, despite earning a regular second-line role for the last few weeks, has a long way to go to earn their trust. It makes me wonder if the Flyers shouldn’t go out and get another offensive top-6 centre and move on from Frost.

As things stand right now, most teams are likely reticent to do that as much of the league is either in a playoff spot or not far off from one. Teams that are way out of the race – Nashville, Montreal, Columbus, Buffalo, Detroit, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim – don’t really have top-6 centres that they would be willing to part with and the Flyers would be willing to acquire (Dylan Cozens notwithstanding).

This might be something for later in the season as we get closer to the Trade Deadline, but as more teams fall out of the playoff race, it would be nice to see the Flyers add some legitimate scoring punch that the coach won’t healthy scratch. It would go a long way in helping guys like Joel Farabee and Matvei Michkov, too. (dec24)

4. Utah Trades For Another Top-6 Winger

As things stand, Utah is firmly in the playoff race. Their top line of Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton, and Nick Schmaltz has largely been very good this season. The line of Jack McBain, Logan Cooley, and Dylan Guenther has produced very well at 5-on-5, but they’ve also done so with an unsustainably high shooting percentage. The Lawson Crouse/Nick Bjugstad/Matias Maccelli trio has struggled to score. It seems as if getting one more top-6 winger to replace one of Bjugstad/Maccelli/McBain might be the trick to getting three lines that can score consistently, and help push them over the top to a playoff spot.

Maybe the team waits to see if Maccelli can turn things around because he’s typically been an excellent playmaker, but his numbers have suffered in that regard this season. If he can improve in the second half, it would go a long way to helping their scoring depth. At the same time, if he can’t, and the Cooley line, erm, cools off, then there isn’t a lot of reliable scoring depth at even strength. With a half-dozen teams within a half-dozen(ish) points of each other for two Wild Card spots in the West, adding one more top-6 winger could be the difference between a playoff spot or going home at the end of the regular season.

I also say this as someone with a vested interest in Cooley and Guenther continuing their solid production, particularly Guenther. The team needs to shore up other areas – fewer penalties/better penalty kill – but they should be wary about being able to consistently score goals, and adding one more offensive winger would (should?) help. (dec24)

[Follow the link for more…]

5. The Colorado Avalanche truly believe in Mackenzie Blackwood, wasting no time in signing him to a five-year contract with a $5.25 million AAV. Prior to signing the contract, Blackwood had played a grand total of four games for the Avalanche, so this deal carries some risk. Blackwood had not posted a save percentage of at least .900 or a goals-against average below 3.20 in any of his previous three seasons with New Jersey and San Jose. However, goaltending hasn’t been a priority for the Avalanche the past few seasons due to cap reasons, while they figure Blackwood's numbers have been hindered by playing for mainly rebuilding teams (he has never played in an NHL playoff game).

Blackwood continued his successful stint with the Avalanche on Friday, stopping 34 of 35 shots he faced in a 4-1 win over Utah. He has now won four of his five games with the Avs, posting an outstanding 1.82 GAA and .940 SV% while wearing both an Avalanche jersey and his teal-colored Sharks gear. (dec28)

6. Todd McLellan made his debut as Red Wings head coach on Friday. Unfortunately, the new bench boss experienced the same results as the old bench boss, with the Leafs taking down the Wings 5-2. McLellan might still be in the observation stage, as I didn’t notice any major deployment changes with Detroit’s lines. Even with a more experienced coach, the team as constructed appears a long way from playoff contention. (dec28)

Fantasy Take: Red Wings Fire Lalonde, Hire McLellan

7. If you’ve been patient with Luke Hughes, you’re now being rewarded. Entering Saturday action, Hughes had eight points over his last six games. Since November 23, the youngest Hughes brother has 15 points over his last 16 games. Prior to that, Hughes had just two points over his first 13 games. Perhaps he needed some time to get in gear after missing the first nine games of the season with a shoulder injury. (dec28)

8. My last two Ramblings included a Christmas wish list (above), as well as peering down the road for fantasy schedules (further below) we should keep an eye on. Those are two forward-looking articles, so let’s keep that theme going, and take a spin around the league for players to keep an eye on for fantasy purposes.

These are just some players that have caught my eye and, for one reason or another, could be in for a big(ger) second half. Data from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools. (At time of writing:)

Filip Forsberg

It is too late for Nashville to turn their season around for a playoff push, but it’s not too late for fantasy relevance. Their new top line of Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, and Jonathan Marchessault has found some offensive chemistry, and Forsberg has 12 assists in his last seven games. Though he has gone without a goal in 13 straight games, he also has 42 shots on goal in that span. In fact, going back further, he has just one goal on his last 60 shots, which works out to 1.7% shooting in that span. Across the 2021-2024 seasons, he averaged nearly 15% shooting.

Nashville has generally had a lot of trouble scoring, and the way they run their offence isn’t very creative. For those reasons, I have my doubts Forsberg will be a 15% shooter the rest of the way. But even just being 10%, while being able to post around 3.5 shots per game, means about 16-17 goals the rest of the way. He is still laying hits, he is shooting a lot, his line is starting to score, and he’s due for positive shooting regression. This is a player I would be buying low on right now. (dec27)

9. Maxim Tsyplakov

All the rookie chatter has been around Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, and Lane Hutson. It should be noted that Tsyplakov is currently third among rookies by points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, trailing only Celebrini and Emil Heineman, and leads all rookies by total points at 5-on-5. He is also averaging well over two hits per game, so he has been a very good fantasy asset this season, particularly in banger leagues.

The New York Islanders have received healthy reinforcements from Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair, so there is now a lot of competition for ice time. That is a concern. What I will say is that while perusing the expected goals impacts this season on Evolving Hockey, I noticed that both his rate of actual goal differential at even strength, as well as expected goal differential, compared to some high-end forwards across the league.

Tsyplakov has been arguably the Islanders’ best forward this year and has been able to drive positive results for all his line mates from Brock Nelson to Bo Horvat. Even with all the competition for ice time, if he keeps playing like this, he will be undeniable to the coaching staff. (dec27)

10. Marco Rossi

Rossi has been great for the Wild, especially considering the extended absence from Joel Eriksson Ek and sub-standard play from centres Ryan Hartman and Frederick Gaudreau. If Rossi isn’t having the season he’s having, it’s a wonder where this Wild team would be, given they’ve been on a mini slide of late anyway.

Rossi has 12 goals and 28 points in 35 games. He has also seen his ice time skyrocket lately because of the lacklustre play from their depth forwards and the injury to Eriksson Ek. That ice time, along with a role next to Kirill Kaprizov at all offensive strengths, has helped support his point production. Once the team rights the ship – and it will – it’ll be curious to see how they use Rossi. I suspect he’ll stay with Kaprizov at even strength, but does he lose his power play role to Eriksson Ek? He likely needs that power play time to stay relevant in a lot of leagues (he has a centre-only designation on Yahoo!), but he has been tremendous for the Wild, and maybe they reward him with that top PP role even if Eriksson Ek is healthy. (dec27)

11. Jared McCann

It has been an up-and-down year for Seattle, though more downs than ups, and that’s been mirrored in Jared McCann‘s production; he had 9 goals and 21 points in 18 games to start the season but has been mired in a slump, producing just three goals and six points in his last 18 games. Here is the thing: in those 18 games, Seattle has landed 157 shots on goal and scored just 11 times (7% shooting). In the first 18 games, the team shot 17% with him on the ice. While those are two extremes, the team shot over 10.5% with him on the ice in his prior two seasons, and 11% across his first three years with Seattle. If the team keeps this up, they will score more often, and his production will improve (and probably a lot).

Not only that, but McCann has just three goals on 50 shots in those last 18 games, which works to 6% shooting; this is a guy who shot at least 13% in his prior four seasons. He is due for a lot of positive regression, both from the team and from himself, and that portends a big second half. McCann looks like the most dangerous Kraken player on the ice most games I’ve seen, and the stats back that up. He is another guy, like Forsberg, to look to buy low on now. (dec27)

12. Emil Heineman

Celebrini leads rookies with seven goals scored at 5-on-5, and Heineman is the next on the list with six. By goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, he sits second, just a shade behind Celebrini, and is in the top-50 of the league (minimum of 300 minutes). Not too bad.

Of course, the shooting percentage is a big part of this; Heineman is shooting 22.2% at 5-on-5, and that won’t keep up. The good news is that he’s played well defensively as, according to Evolving Hockey, he’s the only Canadiens with a positive impact on both expected goals against and actual goals against at even strength. It is a fourth-line role, so the competition isn’t tough, but for a rookie, it’s a positive sign, and something that will keep him in the lineup when the goals dry up.

Like Tsyplakov, Heineman is also laying the body with over two hits per game while in a fourth-line role. Montreal will be sellers at the trade deadline and when some players are moved out, maybe he moves up the lineup to a third-line role. He is someone to keep in mind in deeper banger leagues as we get closer to the trade deadline. (dec27)

13. Philip Broberg

It is a shame Broberg has had a hard time staying healthy because he’s having a solid first season in St. Louis. Injuries to the blue line has pushed him into a big role at times, and there was even a seven-game stretch in late November/early December that saw him play at least 21 minutes in all seven, and at least 23 minutes in five of them. As the blue line got a bit healthier, his ice time went down, but he’s still consistently around the 20-minute mark with some power play time.

St. Louis can go on a run to push for a playoff spot, but they are definitely on the outside looking in, so it’s a wonder what this blue line looks like in mid-March. Broberg has been noticeable (mostly good, some bad) on most nights, and is over a 40-point/82-game pace with solid hit and block totals. Both he and Dylan Holloway have been contributors coming over from Edmonton, but if Broberg can ever consistently earn top PP minutes, he could really take another step in the fantasy game. We shall see. (dec27)

14. Olen Zellweger

Over the last four weeks, Zellweger is 1 of 10 defencemen averaging at least seven shots on goal per 60 minutes (he’s top-5 by shot attempts and shots on goal per 60 minutes). It has made for 33 shots in 13 games, which isn’t bad considering he’s lost some top power play time and has seen some 18-minute games of late.

This is another defenceman to keep an eye on when the Trade Deadline rolls around. Not that Anaheim would be looking to shed guys like Radko Gudas, Brian Dumoulin, or Jacob Trouba, but… maybe? They already traded Cam Fowler, and there could be more on the way out. Zellweger is likely to see a middling role for the next couple of months, and Jackson LaCombe‘s play has given him genuine competition even as Pavel Mintyukov‘s play has fallen off, but there could be a nice run at the end of the season for Zellweger if he can keep shooting like this. He likely isn’t going to be traded in keeper/dynasty formats, but keep an eye on the waiver wire in one-year leagues. (dec27)

15. Christmas is now in the rearview mirror. In the spirit of the season, let’s go over some players or teams that might be discounted from a lot of fantasy owners, but have good schedules over the second half that require our attention. We will also look at some teams/players to avoid. Data from Natural Stat Trick and scheduling stuff from the wonderful Schedule Planner included in our Frozen Tools. (At time of writing:)

Carolina Hurricanes

Starting the week of December 30^th, there are eight teams playing at least four games. Four of those eight teams are playing at least half those games at home, and Carolina is one of them. They also have a relatively easy schedule on tap: In Columbus, In Florida, at home to Minnesota, and at home to Pittsburgh. Not that Florida and Minnesota are easy matchups, but they can rack up the production against Columbus and Pittsburgh, and then hopefully can contribute something in the other two games, especially with how Minnesota has played of late.

The Hurricanes have recently been changing their lines, so keep an eye on that, but for deeper formats, guys like Jordan Martinook, Jackson Blake, Jack Roslovic, and Jalen Chatfield are all on the radar. There is also one back-to-back in there (Minnesota/Pittsburgh) so someone other than Pyotr Kochetkov will get a start in net. It may be Spencer Martin, it may be someone else, but it is a streaming spot nonetheless. (dec26)

[Follow the link for more…]

16. Early 2025

The two-month stretch from January 6^th to March 2^nd is when fantasy seasons are going to either be made or fall apart. In the middle of that span is the Four Nations Cup, and aside from a random injury or two that may pop up (remember John Tavares at the 2014 Olympics?), there could be some tired players. There are going to be some scheduling quirks, so let’s look at some teams to focus on leading up to the 2025 Trade Deadline.

New York Islanders

In that eight-week span, there are four teams playing fewer than 20 games, and the Islanders are one of them with 19. What is worse is that just three of their 19 games are on light days. They have just five games in the first two weeks, and they’re all on heavy Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday slates (though the week of January 13^th is three home games against Ottawa, Philadelphia, and San Jose, so the matchups are good).  

New York has recently gotten back both Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair, so they are getting healthy for the second half of the season, but they may not be of much use for a lot of fantasy managers until the second half of January (of course, it all depends on depth of league, roster limits, and so on). (dec26)

[Follow the link for more…]

17. The Stretch Run

The NHL Trade Deadline is on Friday, March 7^th. There are 5.5 weeks between March 10^th and the end of the regular season on April 17^th, so while fantasy playoff can differ from league to league, we are going to consider that March 10^th – April 17^th stretch as the final run of the fantasy hockey campaign. For fantasy managers at the top of their leagues and looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, this is for you. (dec26)

[Follow the link for more…]

18. Game by Game Consistency

One of the hardest things for an NHL player is to play well night after night for 82 games and then elevate their play in the playoffs.

That is what separates the superstars from the stars and the stars from the next tier.

Using my player game ratings (PGR), superstars average around 7.0 per game while stars are between 6.7 and 7.0 per game. Superstars will have a few games above 8.0 and quite a few games above 7.0. They will rarely have games below replacement level at around 6.25. Games under 6.0 are stinkers and enough of them will get you sent to the AHL or a retirement home.

I’m going to post three graphs for J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes which shows their player game ratings for 2023-24 and 2024-25. I’ll also post a graph for Nathan MacKinnon for comparison’s sake at the end. (dec23)

[Follow the link for more…]

19. DobberHockey posted over 1300 articles and rankings in 2024. The Top 35 articles read were all rankings – everyone loves to look at those. But there were plenty of great articles written this year. Here were the 15 top articles (excluding rankings) viewed on DobberHockey in 2024 (and kudos to Flip Livingstone!):

1. Flying Under-The-Radar: The Top-10 Fantasy Targets With Sneaky-Good Value (Flip Livingstone)
2. Eastern Edge: Ranking the Teams in the Atlantic Division (Livingstone)
3. Next Gen, Now: The Top-10 Fantasy Young Guns Already Turning Heads (Livingstone)
4. Capped: Potential and Current Injury Returnees Including Landeskog, Sergachev, and Ekblad (Andrew Santillo)
5. Top 10 Disappointing Players Who Won’t Rebound (Tom Collins)
6. Chasing Lord Stanley: The Top-10 Stanley Cup Threats (Livingstone)
7. Ramblings: Updates on Luke Hughes, Celebrini, Sorokin, and Korchinski; Point Projections for Walman, Durzi, Burns, and Others – October 3 (Michael Clifford)
8. The Wingmen You Need: Top-10 Fantasy Left Wingers For The 2024-25 Season (Livingstone)
9. Ramblings: Quick Round Three Preview; 2024 Prospect Mock Draft for my Fantasy Dynasty League (May 20) (Alex MacLean)
10. 12 Fearless Forecasts for 2024-25 Fantasy Season (Rick Roos)
11. The Journey: Potential Prospect Sleepers for the 2024-2025 Season (Puneet Sharma)
12. Ramblings: Updates on Guhle, Swayman, and Pospisil; Point Projections for Morrissey, Hamilton, Faulk, and More October 1 (Clifford)
13. Lining Up: One Lineup Note from Each Team, Including Tsyplakov, Hayton, Meier, Michkov, Novak, Zuccarello, and Many More (Peter Ryell)
14. Ramblings: 5 Tips For Your Fantasy Draft (Sep 16) (Brennan Desouza)
15. Ramblings: Detroit’s Top Line; Point Projections for Zegras, Barzal, Cooley, Kaprizov, and More – September 26 (Clifford) (dec25)

20. Meanwhile, DobberProspects saw tremendous growth in 2024, with page views matching the DobberHockey traffic! Incredible growth there. Here was the No.1 article read in 2024:

1. 2024 NHL Draft Rankings: DobberProspects’ Final Top-128

And here were the top player pages read in 2024:

1. Ivan Demidov
2. Cayden Lindstrom
3. Berkly Catton
4. Zayne Parekh
5. Rutger McGroarty
6. Artyom Levshunov
7. Zeev Buium
8. Lane Hutson
9. Alexander Nikishin
10.  Michael Hage (dec25)

21. Over at Frozen Tools, our “Last Game Lines” tool had over 500,000 views in 2024, the highest page viewed across the Dobber Sports Network.

Here were the top pages viewed in Frozen Tools in 2024:

1. Last Game Lines
2. Schedule Planner
3. Last 3 Game Lines
4. Report Generator
5. Hot Players
6. Compare Players
7. Game Preview
8. Player News
9. Line Combinations
10. Player vs Opponent
11. Regular Season Stats
12. Active Point Streaks
13. Fantasy Hockey Game Boxscore
14. Fantasy Team Manager
15. Depth Chart (dec25)

Here were the top player profile pages viewed in 2024:

1. Wyatt Johnston
2. Juraj Slafkovsky
3. Dylan Guenther
4. Connor McDavid
5. Jason Robertson
6. JJ Peterka
7. Martin Necas
8. Quinton Byfield
9. Tage Thompson
10. Elias Pettersson
11. Brock Faber
12. Alexis Lafreniere
13. Logan Stankoven
14. Brandt Clarke
15. Tim Stutzle (dec25)

[Follow the link for more…]

—

Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

—

Have a good week, folks!
Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.