Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I'll be taking a look at some players' splits examining stats prior to the new year, and after the new year in a season. This could provide some insight into who may have a second half surge for the rest of the season.

Is your disappointing player a perennial second half performer? We could take a look at a season's halfway point, but I would argue that the halfway point is just as arbitrary as the new year, more so even.

To try and make my splits a little less arbitrary, I am picking December 27 as the split date as this is a time when every NHL player returns from a break from playing and practicing. For ease, I will just refer to the post-December 27 stats as the New Year. I will also only be focusing on offensive production in this article. Maybe if I find some interesting peripheral splits, I'll save that for next week. Let’s dive in.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl

Let's start with the obvious ones. Last year, McDavid and Draisaitl went on a tear in the new year and second half of the season. Here are the per-game splits last season:

McDavid

2023 – .41 goals, 1.1 assists, 1.52 points, 2.96 shots

New Year 2024 – .43 goals, 1.5 assists, 1.92 points, 3.77 shots

Draisaitl

2023 – .45 goals, .68 assists, 1.13 points, 2.87 shots

New Year 2024- .54 goals, .88 assists, 1.42 points, 2.56 shots

Both of these superstars were still posting elite production prior to the new year, but they reached scorching levels in the new year. McDavid launched himself back into the Art Ross race after being essentially counted out in the first half. Looking to the 2022-2023 season, this split was not existent, but that was because both players sustained scorching paces all season long. Here are McDavid and Draisaitl's current per game stats:

McDavid – .47 goals, 1.09 assists, 1.56 points, 3.16 shots

Draisaitl – .69 goals, .83 assists, 1.51 points, 3.03 shots

McDavid's looks eerily similar to last year’s start, but Draisaitl's does not. The current production is elite, but we know that McDavid has more to give. Current Art Ross betting markets agree, with Nathan MacKinnon only as a slight favourite (+125 to McDavid's +130) to win the Art Ross Trophy, with a 10-point lead on McDavid. I'd be happy to shop either MacKinnon, Rantanen, Kucherov, or Kaprizov in a 1-for-1 trade to McDavid owners.

Matthew Tkachuk

I really don't want to make this article about superstars, as it is hard to find any movement with them in fantasy leagues, but new year Matthew Tkachuk really stands out.

Here are his per-game splits the last two seasons:

2023 – .15 goals, .58 assists, .73 points, 3.6 shots

New Year 2024 – .45 goals, .92 assists, 1.37 points, 3.45 shots

2022 – .47 goals, .78 assists, 1.25 points, 3.49 shots

New Year 2023 – .53 goals, .94 assists, 1.47 points, 4.43 shots

In both seasons, Tkachuk substantially upped his offensive production come the new year. His current production is not really disappointing, but Tkachuk has more to give. Here is his current production:

2024 so far – .41 goals, .69 assists, 1.1 points, 2.84 shots

As Tkachuk's production is still great, his fantasy owners may not expect him to do more than his current 90-point pace. I'm expecting Tkachuk to take a step in 2025, like previous seasons and up his production, especially in shots on goal, which will lead to more offensive opportunities and production. For trade value, I'd expect a 100-point pace moving forward. Maybe you could sell high on Mark Scheifele, Jesper Bratt, or Travis Konecny and work out a trade for Tkachuk.

Juraj Slafkovsky

Here is your low-owned player to keep an eye on and/or grab off of waivers. Here are Slafkovsky's per game splits from last season:

2023 – .12 goals, .24 assists, .36 points, 1.49 shots

New Year 2024 – .33 goals, .49 assists, .72 points, 2.1 shots

Slafkovsky had a real slow start last season, but in the new year, he proved to be a top six top power-play guy in Montreal and found himself owned in most fantasy leagues, especially multicategory leagues. Well, compared to his new year numbers last season, he is off to a slow start this season, especially in shots on goal. Here are his current per-game stats:

2024 – .13 goals, .5 assists, .63 points, 1.3 shots

Slafkovsky has found himself reunited on the top line and top power play in Montreal with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. He is officially hot with five points in his last five games. Slafkovsky is still young, but the first overall pick has plenty of talent and potential to be elite in the NHL. As long as Slafkovsky is playing on the top power play, I'm expecting closer numbers to his new year pace from last season. If he is on your waiver wire, it may be time to pick him up.

One last player to touch on is Kevin Fiala. He has gained a reputation in previous years as "second-half Fiala". This did not manifest last season though, so I'm wary to even mention him, but Fiala has disappointed this season with only 21 points in 34 games. If the 2022-2023 and the 2021-2022 seasons are any indication of things to come, second-half Fiala may actually be incoming! Keep an eye on him.

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

Follow me on X @fantasycheddar for more fantasy hockey advice and updates throughout the season.