Eastern Edge: Matthews’ Injury, Necas’ Regression, Nelson to Be Traded?

TJ Branson

2024-12-31

New Jersey Devils // 24-12-3 // L7 Days: 2-1-0

Roy Cooper, the Governor of North Carolina, chimed in on the New Jersey Devils this week. Timo Meier was assessed a five-minute major penalty for kneeing Martin Necas as well as a game misconduct in this game. Dmitri Orlov and Erik Haula had it out because Haula caught Orlov up high. The game had some grit to it, and to see a governor weigh in was certainly noteworthy. 

Washington Capitals // 24-10-2 // L7 Days: 1-2-0

Alex Ovechkin is back!!! Ovi has wasted no time reacquainting himself with the back of the net – goals in two straight, 11 shots on goal in the two games since returning and 25 goals away from taking down Wayne Gretzky's goal record. His 17 goals in 20 games puts him on pace to break the record in 29.4 games – 29 games from now the Capitals play Anaheim on March 11. The Caps have 56 games remaining. 

Florida Panthers // 23-13-2 // L7 Days: 0-2-0

The Florida Panthers have been shutout four times since December 12 – including games against Jakub Dobes in his Montreal Canadiens debut, Jonas Johansson the backup in Tampa Bay, Kevin Lankinen and the Canucks and Dustin Wolf and the Flames. In this eight-game span, the Panthers have scored 18 goals and are shooting 7.4% as a team. Despite the recent stutter steps, they remain sixth in the league in scoring. 

Toronto Maple Leafs // 22-13-2// L7 Days: 1-2-0

Auston Matthews remains out for reaggravating the same injury that kept him out in November. The Leafs placed him on IR on Tuesday retroactive to December 20 for the purposes of recalling another player, so he could return as early as Thursday. Matthew Knies has been holding that power-play deployment in Matthews' absence. 

The Maple Leafs are navigating the injury to Anthony Stolarz by giving Matt Murray some NHL time. He's yet to record a game with a save percentage above .900, but has gone 1-1-0 in his two starts. 

Bobby McMann has eight points in his last ten games, and four goals in the last six games. John Tavares had his own hot streak, a season high seven game point streak – contract year Tavares has been having quite a performance. 

Carolina Hurricanes // 22-13-1 // L7 Days: 1-2-0

Rod Brind'Amour is now the fastest coach in NHL history to reach 300 wins, needing only 488 games to get there. 

Shayne Gostisbehere is a little worse than "day to day". Brind'Amour stated he is going to miss some time. Ty Smith has been running the top power play in the two games since Gostisbehere has been sidelined. 

Martin Necas' scorching hot start seems to have cooled down to room temperature. 43 points in his first 28 games has become one point in his last eight. All the advanced statistical conjecture pointed towards negative regression, but a mean correction this drastic seemed just as unlikely. 28 games against eight games are two very different sample sizes, but is it sensible to call eight games a cold streak and twenty eight games a hot streak? Yeah, maybe. As is the custom with hockey – the truth lies somewhere in the middle. 

What is worrisome however are Necas' shot rates. During this cold streak Martin is under two shots per game. Necas' shot rates during his 28-game scorcher were exactly two and a half per game. Another concerning point is Necas' contributions on the power play. 19 of his 43 points (44%) in the first 28 games were on the man advantage and Carolina was 28.3% efficient on the power play. During this cold streak Carolina is around half as efficient, scoring on only 14.3% of their power-play opportunities. We can venture into "chicken or egg" territory and ask ourselves: "Is Necas suffering because the power play is suffering, or is the power play suffering because Necas is suffering?". Only time will tell. 

Boston Bruins // 20-14-4 / L7 Days: 2-1-0

The Boston Bruins are splitting their talent between power-play units – splitting them to a point where it is difficult to tell which is the top unit. One could defer to whichever unit David Pastrnak is on and call that the top unit, but split power-play units have rarely resulted in any one unit getting significantly more time than the other in terms of power-play share. This could very well mean diminished value for any players who were previously on PP1, and some negligible improved value for any players who had been on the second unit and could be seeing 20-30 seconds more power-play time every power play opportunity. Of course, assuming the first unit doesn’t score… which it hasn't been doing too much of lately.

Fabian Lysell got his first NHL appearance on Saturday against the Blue Jackets. Lysell is a 2021 first-round draft pick, and is highly regarded in the Bruins organization as one of their top prospects. He had accumulated five goals and 17 points in 26 games with Providence this season, and registered a primary assist on a goal scored by his linemate Justin Brazeau on his very first NHL shift. 

Tampa Bay Lightning // 20-12-2 // L7 Days: 2-1-0

Jonas Johansson has strung together a handful of very good performances lately. With only eight games played through 34 Tampa Bay games, it's unlikely his stats garner any more starts than he has been seeing. Regardless, one has to hand it to him – since November 29, Johansson has maintained a .944 save percentage. That sounds fantastic, until you realize that it is just a misleading sales pitch. Since November 29, Jonas has only played four games. 

Victor Hedman has surpassed Steven Stamkos as the franchise leader in games played as a Tampa Bay Lightning. 

Ottawa Senators // 19-15-2 // L7 Days: 1-1-0

Linus Ullmark has not accompanied the Senators on their road trip due to a back injury. The Senators return to Ottawa on January 9 to face the Buffalo Sabres – but no guarantee that he is 100% by then. The Senators backup Anton Forsberg has returned to practice. Leevi Merilainen and Mads Sogaard will be the Ottawa tandem until one of the two mainstays are ready to return. Forsberg is traveling with the team and was a full participant at practice on Monday.

Artem Zub was also a full participant at practice on Monday, so his return should be getting very close as well. 

Pittsburgh Penguins // 17-16-5 // L7 Days: 2-1-0

The Penguins placed Jesse Puljujarvi on waivers on Monday. 

Michael Bunting is quietly heating up, he has 14 points in his last 13 games including five power-play goals and seven total power-play points. His scoring is coming in bunches, there have been four pointless games in that 13-game span with four multi-point efforts to even the scales. 

Sidney Crosby has surpassed Mario Lemieux for most assists in franchise history. 

Kris Letang is currently dealing with a lower body injury, and there is currently no timetable for his return. Meanwhile, Matt Grzelcyk has been running the top power play for some time now and has seven points in his last eight games, albeit only one on the power play. 

Columbus Blue Jackets // 15-16-6 // L7 Days: 2-1-0

Columbus truly is an enigma. 

  • 11-4-3 at home
  • 4-12-3 on the road
  • Scoring the 9th most goals per game
  • Giving up the 3rd most goals against per game
  • 0-6 in the second half of back-to-back games being outscored 6-25 in those games. 

Columbus' team save percentage is second worst in the league, with only the Philadelphia Flyers having worse goaltending. The Blue Jackets could honestly be just a goaltender (or two) away from making a push to the postseason. The Devils made it happen with Jake Allen and Jacob Markstrom, and the Colorado Avalanche have recast their net entirely in the middle of the current season!

Philadelphia Flyers // 16-17-4 // L7 Days: 1-2-0

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To carry over from the Columbus segment about the Flyers league worst goaltending, there is hope on the horizon. To prevent myself from writing about Matvei Michkov for the umpteenth week in a row, let's talk about Flyers goaltending prospect Egor Zavragin. Zavragin is currently playing for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL, has played 17 games for SKA and has a .916 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.49 goals-against average (GAA). Yegor was traded mid-season from Sochi HC, where he had played in six games, and maintained a .941 SV% and a 2.21 GAA. At only 19 years old, Zavragin has a few years before he could be considered an NHL option. 

Samuel Ersson has the fourth worst Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) according to the model over at MoneyPuck.com. Fifth worst is Cayden Primeau, who was just waived by the Montreal Canadiens and went unclaimed. Evolving Hockey has Ersson as dead last in GSAx.

Aleksei Kolosov might be the short-term answer in net with only 13 games of NHL experience. He has the best goals-against average of the three Flyers goaltenders who have played NHL games this year, and is only behind Ivan Fedotov in SV% by .006. 

Montreal Canadiens // 16-17-3 // L7 Days: 2-1-0

Jakub Dobes made his NHL debut on Saturday and he shut out the defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers. 

The Canadiens are getting substantial goal scoring from players not named Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield over their last ten games. This is not at all a slight against Caufield or Suzuki, who are first and third on the team in scoring in this span – it's simply an observation. 

Patrik Laine has six goals in this span, Jake Evans has five goals, Joel Armia has four, Kirby Dach with three, Caufield, Lane Hutson, Emil Heineman, Juraj Slafkovsky, Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson and Alex Newhook all have two, and Suzuki has one. The wealth is being distributed! Caufield has still been cashing in, going point per game over these ten games. 

New York Islanders // 14-16-7 // L7 Days: 1-2-0

Pierre LeBrun has reported that Brock Nelson is likely going to test out free agency at the end of the season, prompting trade rumors almost immediately. 

The Islanders are 14-16-7 at the moment and playoff hopes are certainly dwindling given how strong the teams at the top are. If we are to whittle down the potential suitors for Nelson, we would first have to isolate the "buyers" from the league, and then pontificate who is in need of a second-line center, or even a third-line center if the team would really like to bolster their roster. The Winnipeg Jets jump out on a cursory glance with Vladislav Namestnikov as their current 2C, but with around $2.75 million of cap space to work with, it could get complicated. The Hurricanes could also do with an upgrade to Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but they have even less cap space than Winnipeg. The 33-year-old center will certainly be in high demand as a rental, and his potential landing spot will be worth following. 

New York Rangers // 16-19-1 // L7 Days: 0-2-0

Mika Zibanejad has been demoted from PP1 and is without a point in eight consecutive games. As the Rangers continue to implode, so does his fantasy value.

Every week it's hard to believe that the Rangers continue to fall down this list. There haven't been a wealth of concrete answers surrounding the absolute cratering of the Rangers, there has mostly been speculation. The players are bummed out that Chris Drury has threatened to trade them, morale is low, it's just a cold streak… any number of excuses have been tossed out there – but it's hard to pin any one thing down. 

One thing that has been mentioned around the water cooler is that head coach (HC) Peter Laviolette seems to have a very small window of efficacy. Taking a look at his previous teams he has coached, trying to find a pattern in first-year performances and any sort of resulting decline:

CAR:

  • 2003-04: Hired mid-season, .481 Win % (W%)
  • 2005-06 1st full season as HC: Stanley Cup Champions
  • 2006-07: .537 W% – missed playoffs
  • 2007-08: .561 W% – missed playoffs
  • 2008-09: fired after 25 games

PHI:

  • 2009-10: Eastern Conference Champions, Loss to CHI in Stanley Cup Final
  • 2010-11: .646 W%, 1st in the Metro, 4-7 in the playoffs
  • 2011-12: .628 W%, 3rd in the Metro, 5-6 in the playoffs
  • 2012-13: .510 W%, missed playoffs
  • 2013-14: Fired 3 games into the season

NSH:

  • 2015-16: .585 W%, missed playoffs
  • 2016-17: Western Conference Champions, loss to PIT in Stanley Cup Final
  • 2017-18: .713 W%, 1st in the Central, 7-6 in the playoffs
  • 2018-19: .610 W%, missed playoffs
  • 2019-20: fired 41 games into the season

WSH:

  • 2020-21: .688 W%, 2nd in the Metro, 1-4 in the playoffs
  • 2021-22: .610 W%, 4th in the Metro, 2-4 in the playoffs
  • 2022-23: .488 W%, missed playoffs

NYR: 

  • 2023-24: .695 W%, Loss in the Eastern Conference Finals
  • 2024-25: 35 games in – .471 W%

Draw your own conclusions from this, correlation and causation are not synonymous – but here it seems like they at least rhyme. 

Detroit Red Wings // 14-18-4 // L7 Days: 1-2-0

The Red Wings have relieved Derek Lalonde of his coaching duties and hired Todd McLellan as head coach of the Red Wings. Known for his defensive leanings, and preference for the 1-3-1 set up – McLellan is a structured coach who designs his clubs to stifle opponents' offense. If he is able to make an impact before the season is over, and implement his system without an offseason to integrate that system, we should expect Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon to be valuable assets to have in fantasy. McLellan has also shown a preference for his defensive forwards, such as Phillip Danault in LA. The "Phillip Danault of Detroit" could potentially be Andrew Copp

In McLellan's two games with the Red Wings, Copp has logged criminally low time on ice. Call it a gut feeling on Copp, but he fits the archetype that McLellan has leaned on in the past. At five on five, McLellan has leaned on Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat as his top three forwards. On the power play, Lucas Raymond, Patrick Kane and Dylan Larkin are his top three forwards. At practice on Monday, McLellan had Erik Gustafsson alternating in on both power-play units, and Moritz Seider removed from any power-play drills – a complete 180 from how he has run his games. Moritz Seider is averaging 4:41 of power-play time on ice in these two games, and Gustafsson only 1:16. McLellan did however urge caution, saying not to read anything into the practice units. 

Buffalo Sabres // 14-19-4 // L7 Days: 3-0-0

The Sabres are 3-0-0 since going 13 games without a win. They have scored 17 goals in their last three games and given up only five. To be fair, their last three games were against the Islanders, Blackhawks and Blues – but they still deserve some roses for snapping that brutal winless streak. There is talk about changes at all levels of leadership, including Kevyn Adams and Lindy Ruff, and even potentially trading away some of the players. With a handful of wins in their corner, they can breathe easy for another day. Their next few opponents are the Stars, Avalanche, Golden Knights and Capitals – a true test of merit.  

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That's our Eastern Edge Eastern Conference update for the week. Thank you for reading, as always feel free to chirp me in the comments below, in the Fantasy Hockey Discord  or you can reach out on X – @FHFHockey. In the meantime, you can catch updates from me on the Five Hole Fantasy Hockey Podcast.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jan 03 - 19:01 FLA vs PIT
Jan 03 - 20:01 CHI vs MTL
Jan 03 - 20:01 STL vs OTT
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Jan 03 - 22:01 VAN vs NSH

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