Capped: Analyzing The Cap Situations for Carolina and St. Louis
Andrew Santillo
2025-01-02
Welcome back everyone! I hope that everyone had a happy and safe New Year's, and here's to a great 2025. Wishing everyone out there nothing but the best in the new year!
This week is that time of the year where I almost don't know what day, time, and heck, year it is but I do know who has what going for or against them when it comes to the salary cap. For this week, I want to look at the best and worst cap situations right now in the NHL. The top club are might just be the current model of how they've structured their roster, but this does change from year-to-year and sometimes it can even change significantly one way or the other. The bottom, it's either a mix of taking on money for picks, or just salaries given out because hey, why not? Or at least sometimes it feels that way.
Carolina Hurricanes:
Current cap space – $799,342
LTIR pool – $2,399,997
Forgive me if I've praised this club before, but Carolina to me is the #1 out there in the NHL in terms of their cap situation. I know early in December I shouted them out here, so we'll make this quick. I really do like where this group could be moneywise as we move forward and still think that the Sebastian Aho contract at 8yrs, $78M, $9.75 has great value for them. To have a top line center signed long term at an AAV that I think will age fine is a great asset to have. We can go back and forth on the Jesperi Kotkaniemi AAV of $4.82 but there are times out there where I see it with him, and let's forget this is a player that's still just 24 years old even though it seems like he's been in our NHL lives for much longer now. Partially because of that lady's reaction when he was selected, that clip will live on forever. Going up and down their roster with their forwards, there's no money that's really allocated in a bad spot and where I really think though this club is going to be ahead of things will be on the blueline.
Again, I've brought it up before, but getting too creative on a blueline can sink you quick and I don't think there's a club out there with a good cap situation that has bad money sitting on their defensive pairings. The Canes are going to have Brent Burns come off this season at $5.28 and Dmitry Orlov at $7.75. Both players they got production from and while I think we're probably watching the last season of Burns; I wouldn't be shocked if Carolina was able to keep Orlov at a lower AAV. Keep in mind, this was the club that traded for him in an early deadline deal with the Caps. This is also a Carolina team that didn't take the extended money on Brady Skjei and while I applaud them for it, he has been valuable for Nashville as of late with the issues that they have on their roster. I don't think that money will age well, for but for time being it's manageable. Carolina next season could very well have Jalen Chatfield ($3M AAV) along with potentially Alexander Nikishin, who may be available to the club later this season. While Nikishin is unsigned as of now, at the right price, the Canes could have one of the top blueliners outside of the NHL joining their roster with Chatfield at a lower AAV. Right there alone you should be looking for Martin Necas money in two seasons, there you have it.
For the 'Canes and fantasy, I currently roster Seth Jarvis and outside of a week or so there of him getting third line minutes, he's been extremely productive for me. I think each of the last three seasons as well, I've gone out of my way to draft Andrei Svechnikov, and that includes the season where he started the year on IR with a leg injury. What he brings to a fantasy roster is an excellent mix of shots on goal as well as blocks and hits, the goals are sporadic with how much he shoots, but I'll take it. This is also a club that I roster often in DFS and don't even really mind it if there's a lack of power play correlation on their lines, with their usual salaries I can mix, and match well and still have money leftover on most slates. If there was a club that I thought might be slightly behind Carolina in terms of their salary cap, I'd give Florida some consideration.
St. Louis Blues:
Current cap space – $3,586,665
LTIR pool – $6,032,208
Last night when I was thinking about this, I had the Islanders pegged worst off in terms of their cap but then I thought about things moving forward and I landed with St. Louis. The biggest difference here is that New York might have some ways out of their situation by trades, they have Ilya Sorokin in net and depending on what happens with Noah Dobson's upcoming free agent summer, have some pieces on their roster that I like. For St. Louis on the other hand, things are a bit dicier.
This is going to sound crazy here, but the Blues are already almost capped out for next season. Not this current one, we're talking 2025-2026. Happy New Year's, right? Some of their contracts as well, have just been baffling to me. Brandon Saad – whom we nicknamed My Left Skate when he was in Chicago because it always looked like when he was trying to move up and down the ice that one skate was bigger than the other – is making $4.5 AAV and may only end up around 20 points this season. Good news is though, is that Stan Bowman is back in the league, whoever rosters Brandon Saad holds all the cards. I only sort of joke here…
Remember what I said about bluelines sinking you? Well, here we go, Justin Faulk at $6.5M AAV, Torey Krug (LTIR), matching $6.5, Nick Leddy (IR) at $4M, and now we have Cam Fowler on the club at $4M for this season and next. That's a lot of coin for not a lot of production or shutdown defensemen on a top pair. I didn't mention Colton Parayko at, you guessed it, $6.5M because I do still like him at times when I think he can really produce for this club and secretly, I love rostering him in fantasy when I can. If anyone in my league is reading this, disregard that last part about rostering him.
What isn't a secret though, is that the Jordan Binnington contract of six years by six million was…we'll go with head scratching… and I'm not sure that if the Blues could do it over again that we land at that term and number. I saw it here with the Hawks, it feels like everyone gets paid when the team wins a Cup, either on the team that won it, or the player signs a big ticket elsewhere. Even with that Cup win by the Blues, since then they've had their own first round pick, but haven't had a pick in the top ten since going all the way back to 2008, and that alone can hurt a club that clearly is in need of that high of a draft pick.
I want be positive here though, there is still good money on the books here. Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas each have matching $8.1M deals, and I'm the one who said in a text thread that Brayden Schenn's deal will look good up until the last year or so…I might want that one back, but hey, he wears the C and is a decent player for fantasy in deeper leagues. I also have to shout this club out, because the twin offer sheets against the Oilers have so far worked out well. Also, I have to give some shine to their rink. I've been to St. Louis several times to catch a game and it's almost always an awesome atmosphere in that barn. Again, got to look at the positives!
*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com
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