21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles
Dobber Sports
2025-01-05
Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber
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Happy New Year to all the DobberHockey readers, listeners, etc. It was another great year here and we're thankful that you're a part of making it so. Cheers to an even better year for all of us in 2025, and may you have luck in love, life, and fantasy hockey lineup choices.
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1. It's a good time to put some markers down and make predictions for the next calendar year. So, let’s do exactly that, and make seven guesses about what we could see over the next 12 months. Data is from Natural Stat Trick and is all as of the afternoon of January 1st.
New Jersey Devils Win the Stanley Cup
This isn’t exactly going out on a limb as New Jersey was around a top-5 team to win the Cup by preseason betting odds, they’re currently top-5 with those same odds, and they’re the sixth overall team by points percentage so far this season. All the same, considering that they missed the postseason entirely in 2024, winning the Cup would be a massive turnaround in one year.
When I look at Cup contenders, the first thing I look for is weaknesses. Well, New Jersey’s top two lines both have a 5-on-5 expected goal share over 55% and actual goal share over 60%. They have a great shutdown pair in Jonas Siegenthaler-Jonathan Kovacevic, and all three defence pairs are both around (or over) a 55% expected goal share at 5-on-5, and actual goal share around (or over) 53%. Starting goalie Jacob Markstrom has also been a difference-maker for them in net, and both their power play (second by conversion percentage) and penalty kill (seventh) are top-10 in the league. If the roster stays healthy, they probably need to add one (or two) legitimate middle-6 forwards by the trade deadline to help with their depth, but this is not a team with (m)any glaring weaknesses. This could very well be their year. (jan2)
2. Macklin Celebrini Scores 50 Goals
As it is with any player, health is paramount here, but Celebrini has been as advertised. He helps drive the play, he’s tremendous through the neutral zone, he has a high shot volume, and he gets lots of ice time. Those are all things that will help him succeed, something he has shown already. Scoring 50 goals in the NHL is incredibly difficult, even in a higher-scoring environment compared to 5-6 years ago, but he has all the tools and the usage necessary to get to that level.
If there is one thing that will hurt Celebrini, it’s that there is still a lot of work to do on his supporting cast. Will Smith is still developing, Mikael Granlund may be traded, William Eklund has been somewhat inconsistent (but is showing his playmaking upside), and the blue line needs a lot of improvement (let’s hope Luca Cagnoni is as advertised). It is the overall issue with San Jose and, by extension, Celebrini’s short- and medium-term upside. However, if those things can improve, especially for the start of the 2025-26 regular season, the super-rookie’s production can really take off. (jan2)
[Follow the link for more…]3. Matt Grzelcyk continues to be used on the Penguins’ top power play and has 12 points over his last 15 games. In addition, his eight power-play points this season represents a career high. He’s only 7 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues, which might be because many assume that Erik Karlsson is still on the top power play. Of Grzelcyk’s 20 points this season, only one is a goal. Regardless, he’s worth adding if you need points from your defense.
If you’re worried about Karlsson, you may not need to be. Karlsson has seven points over his last eight games. In addition, the Pens’ second power-play unit is receiving a higher share of minutes than it has in the past. In addition, that group also features Evgeni Malkin, who for years has been productive with the man advantage. (jan4)
4. J.T. Miller has just two goals in his past 21 games. Both have been into empty nets. It’s understood that Miller took a personal leave that lasted nearly a month, but he has not scored a goal in 12 games (since before his leave), and the last goal he scored on a goalie was October 26. Miller does have six assists over his last six games, so it hasn’t been all bad. The turmoil from the perceived rift with Elias Pettersson may be affecting him.
The good news for the Canucks is that all of Thatcher Demko, Quinn Hughes, and Elias Pettersson will all travel on their upcoming road trip, which starts Monday in Montreal. Rick Tocchet has said he would be “shocked” if they didn’t play at some point on the trip. Having all three players available would go a long way in reversing the team’s recent slump as they hang on to the final wild card spot in the West. (jan4)
5. Demko left Thursday’s game in the second period, although Tocchet clarified that was because of back spasms and might only be "a day or two," but didn't think it was serious. It seems like Canucks fans and Demko owners have dodged a bullet, as this isn’t a recurrence of the rare knee (popliteus, to be exact) injury that has caused him to miss time both last season and this season. If you dropped Kevin Lankinen when Demko returned, you might want to check on his availability again. Even if Demko remains relatively healthy for the rest of the season, the Canucks aren’t going to risk reinjury with a heavy workload. (jan3)
6. Since Igor Shesterkin is now on IR, Jonathan Quick will have to try to turn the Rangers’ season around. Entering this weekend's pair of games, the aging backstop had allowed just one goal on 33 shots for his first quality start since (scrolls down) November 17. That was his first quality start in eight appearances. It’s difficult to have faith in the Rangers right now, but Quick should start the bulk of the games over veteran backup Louis Domingue while Shesterkin is out. At time of writing, Quick was available in over two-thirds of Yahoo and Fantrax leagues if you could use another goalie. (jan3)
7. With a goal on Thursday, Mika Zibanejad broke a slump of no points in his previous eight games. In fact, it was Zibanejad's first even-strength goal since November 19. And Chris Kreider assisted on the goal – his second helper of the season! (jan3)
I’ll be honest: I’ve seriously thought about dropping Chris Kreider in one league, though I haven't pulled the trigger yet. He might be waiting for a trade to rekindle his motivation, and that’s what it might take for his season to get back on track. However, the next move for the Rangers might be a coaching change, which I thought they would have taken care of by now. What we do know is that Kreider has lost a ton of fantasy value this season. The vibes are so bad around the Rangers that any lack of production seems to go beyond a stat correction issue. Kreider has also stated he is dealing with back issues. (dec 31)
8. On Friday, Carter Verhaeghe broke a six-game point drought with an assist. As I mentioned yesterday, his current deployment is not ideal. However, I’m fairly confident that things will turn around for him. So much so that I recently turned down an offer for Bryan Rust in a one-for-one trade in one league. Mackie Samoskevich continues to be on the Panthers’ top power play in place of Verhaeghe. However, the rookie forward has just one point in his last seven games and no power-play points since November 30. (jan4)
9. The Capitals have four players with 15 goals already and we’re not yet at the halfway point of the season: Alex Ovechkin, Aliaksei Protas, Connor McMichael, and Tom Wilson. Ovie's goal count is now at 871, as he's 23 goals behind Wayne Gretzky for the record. Ovechkin now has 25 points over his last 16 games, although that streak was interrupted by a broken fibula. Would we be that surprised if he broke the record this season? (jan3)
10. Zach Werenski is the MVP on one of my fantasy teams, and this is a first-place team. I was told by one of my league mates that I was crazy for placing such a high bid on him given his Band-Aid Boy status, but I noticed a 67-point pace last season. With Blue Jackets’ scoring being better than expected (3.31 GF/GP, 8th in NHL at time of writing), Werenski has blown that target out of the water with 43 points in just 39 games. I just have to cross my fingers that he doesn’t get injured again. Werenski has not played more than 70 games in a season since 2018-19. (jan3)
11. The 17th annual Midseason Fantasy Hockey Guide will be released January 16. You can pre-order it here and you can find a ‘secret’ (not really) coupon code for 10% off, to help battle the terrible US exchange rate. (Hint: simply move the mouse to the top of the screen and the discount code will appear)
In 12 team H2H leagues, we've just passed the point where the calendar flips back to the beginning and you're playing against the same teams that you faced in your early season matchups. What this means is that any hole you find your team has slipped into, you have an equal amount of time remaining to dig that team out of it. Or, if you're ahead, then you still have enough time to fall right back to the starting line. So, now is the time to be looking ahead at the rest of the season, the time to be taking action, and setting your team up for a successful second half. That's what the DobberHockey Midseason Guide is for. Pre-order it now, and your team will repay you later.
12. Zachary L’Heureux was handed a three-game suspension for slew footing Jared Spurgeon on Tuesday. L’Heureux is already making a name for himself as an aggressive player with 32 penalty minutes and 106 hits in 33 games. He finished second in the AHL with 197 penalty minutes last season. Spurgeon missed Thursday’s game because of the hit that resulted in a lower-body injury, and he seems likely to miss additional games. (jan3)
13. I couldn’t handle Olen Zellweger being a healthy scratch for the third consecutive game, so in a last-minute move on Thursday I dropped him for Devon Toews. I love it when things go according to plan. Toews scored the overtime winner and added two assists in 27 minutes of icetime on Thursday. Toews’ production has fallen this season, but the three-point effort pushes him back up to a 0.5 PT/GP pace. (jan3)
14. Could Jonathan Toews return to the NHL? Frank Seravalli lists three teams that might be interested in the former Blackhawks captain: Avalanche, Maple Leafs, Jets. (jan3)
15. Last week, Auston Matthews, went on to say that his injury may not move past this season. Whatever it is, it certainly looks as if it’s something that’s not going to go away anytime soon. (jan2)
16. Minnesota provided an update on Kirill Kaprizov, who is not with the team on their current road trip:
Michael Russo (@RussoHockey): Hearing #mnwild star Kirill Kaprizov is going on injured reserve. Even though it's retroactive to before break and he could come off anytime, I'm hearing he's not coming on the 2-game trip. This creates room for a forward and likely defenseman David Jiricek with Spurgeon hurt.
Missing a pair of games and going on IR retroactive to over a week ago isn’t a big deal. The only big deal right now is that he still isn’t skating. It is hopefully not something that lingers too long, but there’s not a lot of clarity beyond this week. (jan2)
17. Cam Fowler looks like a whole new player since the trade to St Louis. In his 1000th career game on Tuesday, during the outdoor Winter Classic, he opened the scoring, then added another marker in the second period to make it seven points in six games with the Blues. He was averaging 23 minutes a game at time of writing, and really being relied on for the power play as well. The Blues took the game easily, winning 6-2, and dropping the Blackhawks to 0-5 all time in outdoor games. Maybe the league will give someone else a turn for the next few years. (jan1)
18. Jakub Dobes got a shutout in his first NHL start last Saturday, and he looks to be sticking around for at least the medium-term. He could be worth an add if your league rewards volume, but I wouldn't risk my ratios on him right now, even though the Habs have looked decent the last couple weeks. The team waived Cayden Primeau in order to call up Dobes, which may indicate that Primeau is just about at the end of his NHL leash.
The long-term goalie in Montreal is still Jacob Fowler, who is putting up exceptional numbers in the NCAA this year. He's only 20 years old though, so he's likely still at least three years away from any NHL action, and two years away from signing his NHL contract and leaving college. (jan1)
19. That was a tough pill for Canada to swallow at the World Juniors. Questionable roster selection, poor coaching decisions, and undisciplined play all played a part in Canada being eliminated in the quarterfinal in consecutive years – not what Canadian hockey fans are used to. With the talent pool continuing to improve in other countries, hopefully the decision makers in Canada learn something from this experience. There’s a lot more that I could say here, but I’ll stick to the NHL fantasy game. (jan3)
20. Here are some of the standouts I've noticed most through watching the group stage at the World Juniors:
Axel Sandin-Pellika looks like he is just about ready to step into the first power play role in Detroit next year, making Seider do all the heavy lifting with the PK time and harder even strength minutes. He's been visibly dynamic in the tournament, with seven points to show for it, tops on Sweden.
I also wanted to point out Anton Wahlberg from Sweden, who looks massive, and has been keeping up in the AHL this year. Buffalo needs some size in the top-nine, especially if they end up moving Dylan Cozens. That could give Wahlberg the leg up over prospects like Isak Rosen or Noah Ostlund. He has six points thus far in the tournament tied with a few others for second on the team.
Dalibor Dvorsky was viewed as having an outside shot to make the St Louis Blues roster in the fall, and while he didn't make it this time around, come October he looks like a safe bet to become an NHL regular. He's producing very well in the AHL, and is leading Slovakia through the tournament so far as their most dominant player. I've never been the biggest fan of his, but I'm coming around to the fact that he should have a real fantasy impact sooner rather than later. (jan1)
[Follow the link for more…]21. Shayne Gostisbehere is expected to be out for a while and not just day-to-day, according to coach Rod Brind’Amour. Gostisbehere missed last weekend'’s showdown with New Jersey with an upper-body injury. He is a significant loss to the Canes offensively, especially on the power play. At time of writing, only Cale Makar had more power-play points among defensemen than Ghost Bear (18 PPP).
Without Gostisbehere, Ty Smith was not only recalled from the AHL, but he is being deployed on the top power play. Smith has 10 points in 13 games in the AHL this season, so he hasn’t lost his scoring ability. Once a prospect of interest in fantasy leagues because of his offensive upside, Smith is now in his third organization, but he is not yet 25 years old.
Brent Burns is another option for the Hurricanes’ power play. With Smith perhaps a surprise addition to the top power play and not in a firm position there, you may want to hold off on dropping Burns (52% rostered in both Yahoo and Fantrax). Age-related decline and wear and tear appear to be finally hitting the nearly-40-year-old Burns, who was down to 13 points in 38 games and just one power-play point entering Saturday. (dec 31)
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Have a good week, folks!
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