Ramblings: Vatrano’s Extension; Kaliyev on Waivers; Svechnikov Struggling (Jan 6)

Brennan Des

2025-01-06

The Kings placed Arthur Kaliyev on waivers Sunday. Drafted 33rd overall in 2019, the now 23-year-old forward didn't see a whole lot of opportunity in LA, averaging roughly 12 minutes a night over the past three seasons. I think this is a case of a talented player not fitting into a team's system, and I imagine he will have more success on the team that eventually claims him. Kaliyev has flashed an elite shot throughout his career, and it'll be interesting to see if he can make better use of it in a different environment. Mike is our resident Kaliyev expert and I'm sure he'll share some thoughts on Arthur in his Ramblings this week.

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Chris Kreider missed Sunday's battle with the Blackhawks due to an upper-body injury and has been labelled day-to-day by the team. In late November we learned that Kreider had been dealing with back spasms this season, which may be linked to this latest absence. With Kreider sidelined, Jonny Brodzinski returned to the lineup and slotted in beside Mika Zibanejad and Reilly Smith. Brodzinski scored on Sunday, but based on his deployment and career numbers, I don't expect him to be relevant in most fantasy leagues.

Heading into Sunday's game against Chicago, the Rangers had lost 16 of their last 21 games, scoring a league-worst 2.19 goals per game during that span. It seems a date with the basement Blackhawks was just what the doctor ordered as New York found the scoresheet frequently en route to a 6-2 victory.

The Rangers' third line had a particularly strong showing Sunday, with Filip Chytil potting two goals and Brett Berard posting two assists. Both players have been hot over the past four games but probably don't get the deployment necessary to be valuable in most fantasy leagues. Will Cuylle, the third member of that trio, is pointless in his last seven games after a strong start to the campaign. Cuylle continues to make his mark in fantasy leagues that count hits though, tallying nine on Sunday and averaging nearly four per game this season.    

Starting his first NHL game in over a year, Louis Domingue was solid, stopping 25 of the 27 shots Chicago threw at him. Jonathan Quick should still be New York's top netminder with Igor Shesterkin on Injured Reserve right now. However, Quick has been inconsistent lately, so Domingue could see some extra action while Shesty is on the shelf.

The Rangers didn't get any power plays on Sunday, but their struggles in that area are a big reason why many of the team's top guns are producing at lower rates than we'd expect. Over the past two months, the Rangers rank 30th with a 12.3% power play success rate. The same unit ranked third in the league last season, clicking at an impressive 26.4%. We've seen them thrive before, so I have faith they'll turn things around going forward.

After going eight games without a point, Alexis Lafrenière tallied an assist on Sunday. He's a talented young player who sees a high volume of ice time beside other highly talented players. His recent struggles won't last all season.

Mika Zibanejad also went eight-straight appearances without a point, but after Sunday's assist, he's now riding a three-game point streak.

After lighting the lamp on Sunday, Tyler Bertuzzi is up to nine goals in his last 13 games. By my count, Connor Bedard registered an assist on seven of those nine goals (78%), including a sweet feed on Sunday. That assist extends Bedard's point streak to seven games. He has 16 points in 14 outings since the coaching change.

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Sunday's battle between the league's two worst powerplays – New York at 11% and Boston at 12.6% – surprisingly featured a goal on the power play…but it was a shorthanded marker. Players on both teams are experiencing dampened point totals because they haven't been as successful with the man advantage as they were last year.

An assist on Sunday gives Morgan Geekie 12 points in his last 15 games – a stark contrast from his season-opening production of six points over 22 outings. He was averaging just 14 minutes a game during that early dry spell but is up to 16 and a half minutes during this current hot streak. He can contribute a few hits every now and then too, racking up five on Sunday.

Anders Lee's quietly brilliant season continued Sunday as he scored two goals against the Bruins. Since the beginning of November, Lee has 15 goals and 29 points over 30 games but is somehow rostered in just 44% of Yahoo Leagues. He provides extra value in fantasy leagues that track shots on goal as he's averaging three per game this season. I don't know how long this pace will last but you might as well hop on and ride until the wheels fall off.

Lee wasn't the only multigoal scorer in this game as Bo Horvat and David Pastrnak also tallied two each. Pasta probably swung a few fantasy matchups with four goals and 10 shots this weekend.

Noah Dobson is the first name that comes to mind when you think about offense from the Islanders' blueline these days, but it was Ryan Pulock's time to shine on Sunday as he tallied a goal and two assists against Boston. Although Pulock was thought to have a fair bit of offensive potential when he first entered the league, he's now settled into a 25–30-point range.

Given he was on the shelf for six weeks with an injury, it makes sense that Mathew Barzal would need some time to find his rhythm. He had just two points in his first six games back but has followed that up with a three-game point streak after tallying an assist on Sunday.

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Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis tallied three points each on Sunday, leading Carolina to a 4-3 victory over Pittsburgh.

Andrei Svechnikov found the scoresheet with an assist, but it was just his fourth point over his last 13 outings. He's scoring at an underwhelming 57-point pace after pacing for 70 or more in each of the past three years. Now, his 5on5 shooting percentage seems unsustainably low at 5.3%, so I imagine his fortunes will improve as the season progresses. He's currently skating beside Jordan Martinook and Jordan Staal – far from the most offensively gifted players in Carolina – but I imagine he'll regain exposure to Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas or Seth Jarvis before long.

Erik Karlsson tallied a goal and a pretty assist against the Canes, giving him 17 points in his last 19 games. That puts him at roughly a point-per-game in the second quarter after a pedestrian half point per game in the first quarter. Let's see if he can ride this momentum into the second half.

After scoring on Sunday, Michael Bunting is up to 16 points in his last 16 appearances – a far cry from the seven points in 24 games he opened the season with. Power-play opportunity is a key driver of this recent production as eight of his 16 points have come with the man advantage. He's enjoying 54.9% of Pittsburgh's total power-play time during this stretch – up from the 29.4% share he held earlier in the year.

Kris Letang returned to the lineup after missing Pittsburgh's last three games with a lower-body injury.

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Matthew Knies brought momentum from Saturday's hat trick into Sunday's fight with Philly as he lit the lamp once again. Knies came into this weekend with a measly three points in 14 games, but scoring four goals and six points in two games should hopefully give him the confidence to produce more going forward.

With two assists on Sunday, it was a five-point weekend for Auston Matthews. He didn't miss a beat after sitting out the past two weeks with an upper-body injury.

Morgan Rielly snapped a seven-game point drought on Sunday, scoring the overtime winner against Philly. After opening the campaign with 13 points in his first 18 outings, he's struggled immensely with six in his last 23. He's currently on PP1 (although he was off it for stretches earlier in the year) and he sees exposure to plenty of elite forward talent, so I have faith he can bounce back in the second half.  

He isn't rostered in many leagues and probably doesn't need to be, but Rasmus Ristolainen had a strong fantasy performance on Sunday, posting two assists, five shots and four hits.

Jake McCabe left the game with a suspected head injury following a fight with Garnet Hathaway.

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On Sunday, Frank Vatrano signed a three-year deal worth $18 million. He celebrated the extension with two goals and an assist against Tampa Bay. You were always going to be disappointed if you expected Vatrano to replicate last year's 37-goal outburst. However, he continues to provide value in other fantasy categories, boasting 3.4 shots and 2.6 hits per game this season while clicking at a modest 50-point pace.  

Basic math suggests that the average annual value of Vatrano's deal would be $6 million, but it's actually $4.57 million in this case because half of that $18 million is deferred money and will only start being paid out 10 years from now. Why does that lower the AAV? Well, money you have in your pocket right now can be invested to earn interest, making it more valuable than money paid to you in the future. If Vatrano got that deferred $9 million right now and invested it at an annual interest rate of 5%, it would be worth over $14.5 million dollars after 10 years. It’s an oversimplification, but you can see why $9 million 10 years from now is worth significantly less today, leading to a smaller present-day cap hit. Of course, the actual calculations are more complicated and things like inflation make the numbers too complex for my smooth brain to understand, but this deal could have major implications. This isn't the first instance of salary deferral in the league, but it appears to be the most extreme case thus far.  It may provide a template for teams with high state/provincial tax rates to save cap space, or it might prompt changes to the NHL's collective bargaining agreement. Again, inflation and other factors will complicate things, but part of the reason this deal makes sense for Vatrano is that 10 years from now, when he starts getting his deferred salary, he plans on living in an area with a lower tax rate than his current home in California.

I've done a lot of yapping, but for a more detailed and straightforward explanation of deferred money in NHL contracts, check out PuckPedia's piece here.

A goal and assist on Sunday brings Troy Terry up to a 69-point pace this season. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, but Terry deserves to be rostered in more fantasy leagues. He's still available in 62% of Yahoo formats as I write this.

Ryan Strome could be worth a flier in deeper leagues. With two assists on Sunday, he's up to seven points in his last five appearances.

The Vatrano-Strome-Terry line gave Anaheim the offense needed to upset the Lightning 4-1, but the win wouldn't have been possible without an excellent performance from John Gibson, who stopped 36 of the 37 shots he faced. Gibson has been solid this season, sporting a .914 save percentage through 14 games and saving over seven goals above expected (GSAx).

Sophomore blueliner Jackson LaCombe stayed hot with a goal against Tampa, giving him five points in his last six games.

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Congratulations to Team USA on winning back-to-back gold medals at the World Juniors after an overtime thriller against Finland. Czechia took home the bronze after beating Sweden in a 14-round shootout.

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Thanks for reading! Hope you have an awesome week ahead :)

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jan 07 - 19:01 T.B vs CAR
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Starting Goalies

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
MARCO ROSSI MIN
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MIRO HEISKANEN DAL

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  Players Team
JAKUB DOBES MTL
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LINE COMBOS

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24.8 FRANK VATRANO TROY TERRY RYAN STROME
22.6 MASON MCTAVISH CUTTER GAUTHIER ROBBY FABBRI
21.0 BRETT LEASON ALEX KILLORN LEO CARLSSON

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