Ramblings: Kaliyev Lands in New York; Updates on Injured Senators; Two-Goal Tom; Notes on Carolina, Forsberg, Zellweger, and More – January 7

Michael Clifford

2025-01-07

The big news on Monday would be to see which team would claim former Los Angeles Kings winger Arthur Kaliyev as he was put on waivers by the Kings on Sunday. Kaliyev had been injured for the 2024-25 season, but the team was playing well and had the forward depth they needed, so a move needed to be made.

Well, the winner of the sweepstakes was the New York Rangers. It kind of feels poetic this happens just weeks after they ship out Kaapo Kakko, but they need any/all kind of help they can get, and we'll see how things go with Kaliyev. I like him as a player, but I'm not sure he's a great fit on that roster because they play a rush/counter-attack style while he's more of a forechecker who looks for open areas to get his shot off. Hope it works out, but we'll see how this goes.

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We got a kind-of update on Minnesota forward Kirill Kaprizov:

The team said he's still not skating, so a return is not on the near-term horizon. Minnesota has six games across the next two weeks, so it's not a hefty schedule, and we'll update as we get more information. It is too bad that this is happening when Kaprizov had such a fantastic start to the season. It looked to be a genuine MVP-calibre season in the making and now we just have to wonder how many games he'll miss.

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Some good news for Ottawa depth forwards David Perron and Michael Amadio:

The Senators are on a bit of a slide of late and Amadio had been a key part of a third line that was playing very well over the prior month or so. Ottawa is in Detroit on Tuesday before returning home on Thursday.

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Tom Wilson scored twice (one PP) and Aliaksei Protas had a goal and an assist as Washington scored a late goal against Buffalo to push a 3-2 Sabres lead into overtime. Things would hold there for the shootout, but a hard-earned point for the Capitals as they stay firmly in the race for the Presidents' Trophy even as the Sabres took the win in the shootout.

John Carlson had a pair of assists with a shot while Jakob Chychrun had an assist, four shots, and two blocks.

JJ Peterka had a goal and an assist (PP) for Buffalo, totaling five shots and a block along the way. Tage Thompson scored the PP goal that Peterka assisted on, while Tage racked up six shots, two PIMs, and a hit. Tage is now on a 43-goal, 82-game pace as his rebound season continues rolling.

Alex Tuch had the other goal for the Sabres, his 13th goal of the year. He managed two shots, two blocks, and a hit in a solid multi-cat night.

Rasmus Dahlin had a power play assist, a shot, and three blocks. He is up to 29 points in 33 games to go with some stellar peripherals. He just needs to stay healthy and he can be a top-5 fantasy defenceman over the second half.

Charlie Lindgren stopped 24 of 27 shots faced while Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 25 of 28 that he faced, along with three of four in the shootout to take the victory.

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Quinn Hughes returned to the Vancouver lineup on Monday night as the Canucks were in Montreal to face the streaking Canadiens. It was a fantastic back-and-forth game as Montreal jumped out to an early 1-0 lead thanks to Cole Caufield's 22nd of the season before two goals from JT Miller and one for the recently recalled Jonathan Lekkerimaki gave the Canucks a 3-1 lead. However, Kaiden Guhle, Kirby Dach (PP), and Lane Hutson peeled off three straight goals for Montreal to give them a 4-3 lead. Jake DeBrusk scored a power play goal just a couple minutes later, though, and this one was off to overtime.

Nils Hoglander took a penalty late in the third period, and Nick Suzuki made no mistake on the overtime power play as he ripped a slot shot past Kevin Lankinen to lift Montreal to a 5-4 win. With those two points, as of today, the Montreal Canadiens are in a playoff position in the Eastern Conference. It seems unfathomable after the October they had, but here they are.

Caufield finished with that goal, a power play assist, three shots, and two PIMs while Suzuki had the OT power play winner, two helpers (one PP), and four shots. Suzuki is now up to 41 points in 40 games and is on pace for his first career point-per-game season.

Lane Hutson had three points as well, adding two assists (both on the power play) to his goal. He now has 30 points in 40 games on the campaign.

Sam Montembeault wasn't busy, but saved 16 of the 20 shots thrown his way for the win.

Miller figured in on all four Vancouver goals, ending with two goals, two assists, three shots, two blocks, and five hits. It was a fantastic fantasy night from him.

Hughes ended up with a pair of helpers (one PP), one shot, and three blocks in his return.

Lankinen allowed five goals on 24 shots for the loss.

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Devon Toews scored twice and assisted on Mikko Rantanen's empty-net tally as the Colorado Avalanche took a 3-1 win at home to Florida. That pushes Toews up to 20 points in 37 games on the season, and he now has 11 points in his last 12 games after starting the season with just nine points in his first 25 games. Toews has been skating nearly 26 minutes a night during that stretch, and the additional ice time plus natural positive regression is making him a very valuable fantasy option.

That goal from Rantanen was his seventh empty-net goal on the season, which leads the league. He has more empty-net goals by himself than 11 teams do entirely.

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Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 26 of 27 shots for the win. He now has a .937 save percentage in nine appearances (eight starts) for Colorado as he's been exactly what the team needed to steady the ship.

Carter Verhaeghe scored the lone goal for Florida, just his 10th of the season in his 41st game. It broke an eight-game goalless drought, so hopefully a sign of a turnaround for him. After spending some time off the top PP unit, he was added back to it late in this game, which is another good sign.

Sergei Bobrovsky was solid in net, stopping 31 of 33 shots, but still took the loss.

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Dawson Mercer had a goal and an assist with three shots as the New Jersey Devils took a 3-2 win on the road in Seattle. His assist came on a goal from Paul Cotter and it was kind of poetic both players scored their 10th goal of the season in this one. Cotter is well on his way to setting a new career mark in that regard (he had 13 goals in 2022-23).

The game-winner for New Jersey came off the stick of Ondrej Palat early in the third period, his ninth of the season.

Dougie Hamilton had an assist, four shots, and a block in just 16 minutes of ice time. Jack Hughes didn't score but had an assist with five shots. He is goalless in five straight games but has 22 shots in those appearances, so he's still very involved.

Jacob Markstrom stopped 21 of 23 shots for his 20th win of the season. He is the second goalie to reach 20 wins on the year, behind Connor Hellebuyck's 24 wins.

Shane Wright (PP) and Adam Larsson had the goals for Seattle. Kaapo Kakko assisted on Wright's goal and is now up to five points in eight games with the Kraken. Kakko also skated 19 minutes in the loss, and has now averaged around 17:15 per game in his last five games. Seattle has three more games this week and they're all on the road, but in Buffalo, Detroit, and Columbus. Something for the streamers to keep in mind.

Philipp Grubauer allowed three goals on 29 shots and took another loss. That makes three in a row for him, and he sits with an .880 save percentage in 2024-25.

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This week is roughly the halfway point of the regular season as it is a busy week and most teams already have at least 40 games played. I thought it would be a good time to go over how some players performed in the second quarter to see if we can learn anything about what might happen in the second half. We are looking at performances from each team's last 20 games as of the afternoon of January 6th, with data from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools.

Dylan Guenther

Over his last 20 games, Guenther is sixth among regular forwards (at least 200 minutes) in total shot attempts per 60 minutes, nestled between Filip Forsberg and Artemi Panarin. He does have nine goals in his last 20 games but just 49 shots on target. The two issues is that his ice time is down a bit, settling just over 16 minutes a night, and that he's only landing 41.1% of his attempts on net. Beware of that ice time drop and the fact that Utah's top PP unit is shooting over 34% in those 20 games. That is far too high, and Guenther has gotten over half (11) his points (20) in that 20-game stretch.

Filip Forsberg

As just mentioned, Forsberg has been shooting the puck a lot, and unlike Guenther, he's skating 18:45 per game in that stretch, so he's averaging three shots per game. Like Guenther, though, he's not landing a high percentage of his attempts on net, and that's keeping that shot total down. Also, he has just one goal in those last 20 games, and actually has just one in his last 25 games. Yes, one goal in over eight weeks. Nashville has generally had scoring issues, but that he's not even connecting on the power play is an issue. He is a buy-low option, but I wouldn't expect him to produce in the second half like he did last season.

Wyatt Johnston

After a slow start, Johnston has 20 points in his last 20 games, and is averaging over 20 minutes a night in that span. What is also nice to see is that his individual expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is sixth among all forwards, just ahead of Zach Hyman and just behind Timo Meier. He is shooting just 10.5% in that span, which is an improvement on the 6.1% he shot up to that point, but still a far cry from the 14.9% he shot across his first two seasons. Dallas's top power play unit still isn't up to snuff, but they are generating a lot of shots, and improvements for that unit would do wonders for Johnston in the second half.

Carolina Hurricanes Defencemen

On November 24th, the day after Carolina played their 20th game of the season, they had zero defencemen among the top-10 in the league by shot attempts, and only one in the top-15 (Shayne Gostisbehere was 12th). Since November 25th, they have two defencemen inside the top-6 by shot attempts (Brent Burns and Sean Walker) while Gostisbehere sits 17th.

On November 24th, the Carolina Hurricanes were third in the league by goals per minute. Since that point, they have fallen to 22nd by goals per minute. It isn't all because they have defencemen shooting the puck more often, but that is a part of it, and it seems as if they've reverted to their habits from prior seasons.

Olen Zellweger

It has been a see-saw season for Zellweger as he has 1.09 points per 60 minutes at all strengths, which isn't a high-end mark but is still around the 60th percentile of all regular defencemen in the league. That isn't bad, especially on a team that has the second-lowest goal rate in the league. Over the team's last 20 games (fewer for Zellweger because he has been a healthy scratch at times), he is eighth in the league by shot attempts per 60 minutes, sitting between Zach Werenski and Quinn Hughes. There is good here, but as mentioned, he's been a healthy scratch recently and that's not ideal.

The good news here is those last 20 Ducks games have seen him register a point on just 18.8% of Anaheim goals scored with him on the ice. His first 44 career games saw him at 51.4%, and the average defenceman is around 36%. Once that regresses positively, the points will return, so he might be a nice buy-low option right now.

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