Analytics Advantage: Fantasy Points Per Game and Michkov, Norris, Larsson, and More

Stas Pupkov

2025-01-09

Welcome back to this week's edition of Analytics Advantage! As the NHL season rolls on, fantasy hockey managers are seeking ways to maintain their edge. This week, we spotlight five players with intriguing performances and potential: Matvei Michkov, Josh Norris, Owen Power, Justin Faulk, and Adam Larsson.

By analyzing per-60 metrics and leveraging advanced visualizations, we'll uncover their strengths, areas for improvement, and fantasy value. The goal is to provide actionable insights to help fine-tune your roster for success.

For each player, we analyzed their performance across key per-60 metrics, including:

                •             Goals/60

                •             Assists/60

                •             Shots/60

                •             Shots Blocked/60

                •             Hits/60

                •             Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG)/60

This week's analysis includes:

                •             Stacked Bar Graphs: Comparing per-60 performance to league averages.

                •             Scatter Plot (FPPG vs. TOI/GP): Highlighting player efficiency relative to ice time.

                •             Bubble Chart (Corsi/60 vs Points/60): Evaluating puck possession and scoring trends.

Player Analyses

Matvei Michkov (PHI – R)

Matvei Michkov continues to deliver exceptional results for the Philadelphia Flyers, recording 12 goals and 17 assists over 39 games. His 7.53 FPPG/60 and 2.71 Points/60 rank among the league's top forwards. Michkov's efficiency, underscored by his 1.12 Goals/60 and 7.75 Shots/60, highlights his ability to generate consistent offensive production despite playing 16:28 TOI/GP.

On the Corsi vs. Points Bubble Chart, Michkov emerges as a dominant force, showcasing a high correlation between possession and scoring. His stacked bar graph reinforces his offensive dominance across all categories, with every metric outperforming the league average.

Fantasy Takeaway: A cornerstone player in scoring leagues, Michkov's combination of efficiency and role security makes him a must-have asset.

Josh Norris (OTT – C)

Josh Norris has been a steady performer for the Ottawa Senators, with 14 goals and 8 assists over 39 games. His 8.90 FPPG/60 and 1.80 Points/60 reflect solid, balanced contributions. Norris also boasts 1.14 Goals/60, placing him among the better goal-scoring centers in the league.

The FPPG vs. TOI/GP scatter plot positions Norris as an efficient contributor relative to his 18:51 TOI/GP. His stacked bar graph highlights his consistent production across all offensive categories, particularly in shots and goals, where he exceeds the league average.

Fantasy Takeaway: A dependable middle-tier option, Norris provides strong scoring output with balanced contributions across secondary categories.

Owen Power (BUF – D)

Owen Power, the Buffalo Sabres' rising star, has contributed 5 goals and 17 assists across 41 games. His 8.07 FPPG/60 and 1.43 Points/60 make him a valuable option in leagues valuing defensemen with scoring upside. Power's 22:29 TOI/GP underscores his integral role on the Sabres' blue line.

On the stacked bar graph, Power's strong contributions in Shots Blocked/60 and Assists/60 stand out, though his 0.33 Goals/60 indicates room for improvement in offensive output.

Fantasy Takeaway: Power is a reliable choice in leagues emphasizing blocks and assists. His heavy usage ensures a steady floor.

Adam Larsson (SEA – D)

Adam Larsson has excelled in defensive categories for the Seattle Kraken, recording 2 goals and 6 assists over 41 games. His 7.03 FPPG/60 is largely driven by elite peripheral metrics like 5.90 Shots Blocked/60 and 3.91 Hits/60.

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The Corsi vs. Points Bubble Chart places Larsson as a player excelling defensively but limited offensively. His stacked bar graph confirms his dominance in blocks and hits while underscoring his lack of scoring.

Fantasy Takeaway: Larsson is a high-floor option in peripheral-heavy leagues. While his offense remains limited, his consistent defensive output makes him a valuable addition.

Justin Faulk (STL – D)

The veteran Justin Faulk has been a steady presence for the St. Louis Blues, contributing 2 goals and 13 assists over 38 games. His 7.43 FPPG/60 and 1.01 Points/60 reflect a balanced approach, with strong secondary stats bolstering his value.

Faulk's stacked bar graph highlights his reliability in Shots Blocked/60 and Hits/60, both exceeding league averages. However, his low scoring metrics (e.g., 0.13 Goals/60) indicate limited offensive upside.

Fantasy Takeaway: A dependable depth option, Faulk offers stability in defensive categories. Managers in need of secondary stats like blocks and hits will find him a worthwhile asset.

Key Takeaways

                •             Matvei Michkov: A premier forward excelling in scoring efficiency and offensive generation.

                •             Josh Norris: A well-rounded center delivering consistent fantasy value.

                •             Owen Power: A defenseman with significant usage and a reliable floor in blocks and assists.

                •             Adam Larsson: A shot-blocking specialist perfect for leagues valuing defensive peripherals.

                •             Justin Faulk: A steady contributor across multiple categories, ideal for deep leagues.

How FPPG is Calculated

Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) combines goals, assists, shots, blocks, and hits, weighted to reflect their fantasy relevance, divided by games played.

Tips for Fantasy Managers

                1.            Leverage Defensive Specialists: Larsson and Faulk offer stability in blocks and hits.

                2.            Capitalize on Efficiency: Michkov's high-end Points/60 is a key differentiator in scoring leagues.

                3.            Watch Usage Trends: Power and Norris' high TOI ensures consistent opportunities for production.


Stay Connected

For personalized advice or further insights:

                •             Twitter/X: @DH_staspup

                •             Email: staspup@proton.me

                •             Bluesky: stasp.bsky.social

Data Source: Statistics current as of January 7, 2025, courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.

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