Ramblings: Regression Coming for Jets’ PP; Necas Cashes in for Colorado; Tkachuk Snaps Scoring Drought; Adding Drouin, Huberdeau & Spurgeon (Jan 27)

Brennan Des

2025-01-27

Minutes away from a crucial point in a tight Eastern Wild Card Race, a cruel twist of fate led to heartbreak in New York. The Rangers failed to convert on a late-game power-play and could only watch as Cale Makar exited the box, intercepted a pass, and set Artturi Lehkonen up for the game winner with just 14 seconds left on the clock. Makar was the top scorer of this game, posting two goals along with his game-winning assist. He seems to be heating up again after a rare four-game point drought in early January.

Following Sunday's game winner, Lehkonen is up to 10 goals in his last 15 outings. Over the past month, only David Pastrnak (12) and Leon Draisaitl (11) have more tallies. It's surprising to see Lehkonen with only two power-play points on the year considering he sees lots of time on Colorado's talented PP1, but he's been productive in this role before, and I imagine his fortunes will change as the season progresses. Trading Mikko Rantanen for Martin Necas obviously changes up the power-play dynamic, so let's see if that sparks more PP offense for Lehkonen. The Avs surprisingly have the league's second worst power play in 2025, clicking at a surprisingly low 11.1% over a span of 13 games.

After going pointless in his debut with Colorado, Necas collected his first two points in his second appearance for the team. He probably should have had more as he also hit the post a couple times in this game. After skating 25 minutes in his Avs' debut, game two brought a more modest TOI of 19:34 for Necas – but that number was the highest among Colorado's forwards and was still higher than his 18-minute average with Carolina. As Ian mentioned in the Fantasy Take article for this trade, Necas should see more ice time in Colorado than he did with the Canes, which obviously gives him more opportunity to contribute to your fantasy roster.

Jack Drury – the other piece of that blockbuster trade with Carolina – also got his first point with Colorado after scoring on Sunday. Given that this was Drury's first point in 15 games, and that he's currently skating on the third line with Miles Wood and Ross Colton, I'm not overly enthusiastic about his fantasy outlook.

Injuries have limited his impact this season, but Sunday's assist gives Jonathan Drouin 17 points through 18 games. He's currently skating on the top line with Necas and Nathan MacKinnon, enjoying top-unit power-play time as well. Drouin is rostered in just 30% of Yahoo Leagues and should continue seeing favourable deployment since Valeri Nichushkin recently suffered a setback and isn't expected to return from injury any time soon.

After an incredible start with Colorado, where he didn't allow more than two goals in any of his first 12 games with the team, Mackenzie Blackwood has looked more human lately, allowing three or more in his last four outings. I'm still optimistic about Blackwood's rest-of-season outlook, but if the owner in your league is starting to panic and willing to sell at a discounted rate, go ahead and slide into their DMs.

Igor Shesterkin entered this game on a heater having conceded just one goal in his previous three outings, but had a rare off-game as he allowed five goals on 21 shots from Colorado. He's been solid since returning from an upper-body injury on January 9th, so I wouldn't worry too much about this one hiccup.

After an excellent first quarter and awful second quarter, Will Cuylle appears to be bouncing back in Q3. He has three points in his last four games following Sunday's assist. This recent production is encouraging because he's playing a more defensive role on a line with Mika Zibanejad and Reilly Smith. That line has performed well according to expected goals metrics, even though they've been outscored thus far.  Speaking of Smith, he now has back-to-back multipoint games after tallying two helpers Sunday.

Alexis Lafreniere also appears to be back in form as he has six points in six games after tallying an assist on Sunday. This comes after a woeful stretch that saw Laf post four points in 17 games.

One day after signing a five-year extension with the Rangers, Will Borgen celebrated by scoring his third of the season. He's produced more offense in New York than he did in Seattle, but his fantasy value is most limited to hits and blocks.

~

Clayton Keller extended his point streak to seven games with a goal on Sunday. He ranks top five in league scoring since December 6th, boasting 32 points through 23 games.

Sunday's game marked a fifth-straight absence for Mikhail Sergachev, who's dealing with an upper-body injury and remains day-to-day. In Sergachev's absence, Michael Kesselring has been skating on Utah's top power-play and already has two PPPs to show for it.   

Due to a back surgery, John Marino didn't make his season debut until January 14th, so Sunday was only his seventh game of the campaign. He's chipped in a surprising bit of offense with three points in his last five appearances. Of course, Sergachev has been absent during this stretch, likely giving Marino more offensive opportunity than normal.

After getting pulled in his last outing, Leevi Merilainen bounced back in a big way Sunday, stopping 34 of the 35 shots Utah threw his way. Anton Forsberg is also in good form right now, having allowed one goal in three of his last four appearances. I wrote about Ottawa's goaltending situation last week, speculating that Merilainen would be sent down once Linus Ullmark is healthy because unlike Forsberg, Merilainen doesn't have to clear waivers. Regardless, having your second and third-string netminders playing well is a good problem to have.  

Artem Zub made his mark across the stat sheet on Sunday, registering an assist, three shots, two blocks, and two hits. He may only have five points on the season but three of those points came in his last eight games. He was an underrated source of blocks and hits last year and seems to be finding his footing again after injuries hindered him earlier in the campaign.

Brady Tkachuk's goal on Sunday snapped a shockingly long 10-game point drought. Goal scorers tend to be streaky so don't be surprised if Tkachuk starts heating up now that the monkey's off his back. The entire team has struggled to score over this 11-game stretch but boasts a 7-3-1 record thanks to strong goaltending. Ottawa's offense features talented players like Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux, and Tim Stutzle, who have produced at high levels over large samples, including the start of this season, so I'm optimistic these struggles are temporary.

After missing Ottawa's last two games with an upper-body injury, Josh Norris had a quiet return on Sunday with three hits, two blocks, and eight faceoff wins through 16:41 of ice time.

~

A four-point night from Gabriel Vilardi led the Jets to a 5-2 victory over Calgary on Sunday. Vilardi has 47 points through 51 appearances and is on pace for a career-high 76 points. Nearly half (22) of his total points were tallied on the man advantage as Vilardi benefits from a prominent role on the league's top PP unit.

Kyle Connor also had a productive night with a goal and two assists, including this beauty to open the scoring.

Mark Scheifele, who rounds out the top line with Vilardi and Connor, also contributed a goal and an assist.

Winnipeg scored on both of their power-play opportunities, improving their season success rate to 32.4%. The team ranked 22nd in the league with a 18.8% conversion rate last year, so it's safe to say that an improved power play is a big reason why their top forwards are producing at such high levels right now.

I think it's worth mentioning that the Jets are outperforming their expected goals on the power play by a wide margin, which suggests that luck has been on their side thus far. That narrative is supported by Winnipeg having the highest PP shooting percentage in the league at 23.7% (via NaturalStatTrick). For reference, no other team is above 20% – even the league's top power plays in recent seasons didn't crack the 20% mark. In other words, don't expect Winnipeg's PP to be as hot in the second half as they were in the first. Corrections are coming.

An assist against Calgary gives Nikolaj Ehlers 44 points in 42 games, which translates to a career-high 86-point pace. He's seeing 61% of Winnipeg's power-play minutes this year – marking the first time in 10 seasons he's seen a majority share of the Jets' PP time. He boasts a career-high 17 PPPs and still has half a season to improve that total. An unrestricted free agent after this season, Ehlers is going to get PAID this summer.

Now, since Ehlers wasn't on the top unit last year when it was bad, and is now that it's good, it's tempting to attribute their improvement to his presence. However, the team managed a 30% success rate through nine games from November 30th to December 17th, when Ehlers was sidelined with an injury. Ehlers' dynamic skillset certainly makes the power play more dangerous, but new PP coach Davis Payne also deserves a lot of credit.

Eric Comrie finally came away with the W after eight-straight losses. He gave Winnipeg a chance to win most of those games but wasn't getting much run support until Sunday.

📢 advertisement:

With an assist against Winnipeg, Jonathan Huberdeau has 24 points in his last 24 games. He holds a 21.8% shooting percentage on the season, which he's unlikely to maintain all year, but it's still nice to see him bouncing back after a tough first couple of years in Calgary. He's rostered in just 42% of Yahoo Leagues and plays four games this week if your fantasy roster needs a scoring boost.  

After a slow start to the season, Yegor Sharangovich is finally showing signs of life with nine points in his last 12 games and seven in his last seven.  

~

Chicago must have been preparing for a later start time as they snoozed their way through periods one and two of Sunday's game against Minnesota, registering just five shots on net. They finally woke up in the third, putting up 15 shots and two goals but ultimately falling short of the comeback. Remarkably, Minnesota's away record improves to a league-best 18-5-3, while their home record ranks 28th at 11-12-1. It's a good thing the team's next four games are on the road.

Matt Boldy led Minnesota to the win with three assists against Chicago. He's been in great form this calendar year, boasting a team-leading 14 points through 12 games.

After allowing four or more in each of his last five starts, Filip Gustavsson finally had an acceptable showing as he stopped 18 of the 20 shots he faced. Still, he's been performing well below the level displayed early in the season. I have faith that he'll bounce back from these struggles, especially now that the team is healthy.

Jared Spurgeon scored the game's opening goal and now has two points in three games since returning from injury. More importantly, he's been skating on Minnesota's top power play for these three games – which was also the case right before he got injured. It seems fantasy managers forgot about his PP1 potential while he was sidelined because he's currently rostered in just 8% of Yahoo Leagues. If your fantasy team needs some offense from the blueline, run to the waiver wire and secure your Spurgeon.

After missing Chicago's last game because of an illness, Seth Jones had an impactful return to the lineup. Not only did he score a power-play goal, he also registered six shots, three blocks, and two hits. He's been in excellent form offensively over the past month with 11 points in 13 games.

In just his fourth NHL game, 22-year-old Ethan Del Mastro made a great play to get his first point in the big leagues. Del Mastro's an interesting young defenseman because after posting an impressive 0.54 points per game during his first AHL season last year, he was at just 0.21 p/g before this year's call up. With most scouting reports focusing on his defensive aptitude, and with Jones and Alex Vlasic ahead of him in line for offensive opportunity this season, I wouldn't expect significant offense from Del Mastro for the rest of the campaign.

That goal was Frank Nazar's fifth point in his last four appearances. The 21-year-old rookie is starting to find his groove in the NHL, benefitting from playing beside Connor Bedard in recent games.

With an assist on Sunday, Bedard has now registered a point in 14 of his last 16 outings.

Tyler Bertuzzi, the third member of Chicago's top line, is hot just like his linemates. Sunday's assist gives him six points over his last five games.

~

Prior to puck drop in Vegas, we got some interesting news from the Golden Knights…

Whatever ailment Alex Pietrangelo is dealing with didn't stop him from playing on Sunday as he ranked up 24 minutes against the Panthers. It'll be interesting to see who replaces him in Team Canada's lineup (Mackenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad, Dougie Hamilton, Drew Doughty, Evan Bouchard, Chris Tanev and Thomas Harley all seem to be in the mix) but also if any other players opt out of the tournament to nurse nagging injuries.

Vegas' depth scoring came through on Sunday as Nicolas Roy tallied three assists in a 4-1 win over Florida. Roy has shown he can produce when given more offensive opportunity, but with so much talent ahead of him on the depth chart, that opportunity tends to be rare at baseline.

A goal against Vegas gives Anton Lundell 14 points in his last 20 games, which surprisingly ties him with Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart for the team lead in scoring during this stretch. Like Roy in Vegas, Lundell is another player who has done well with more opportunity but is usually limited because of the talent ahead of him.

Normally known in fantasy formats for his block totals, Brayden McNabb has surprised us with offense lately. A goal and assist on Sunday gives him four points in his last four games. I wouldn't count on him to score much going forward, but this has been a nice bonus to his reliable production in other categories.

A pretty breakaway goal extended Jack Eichel's point streak to six games, while an empty netter brought Tomas Hertl's streak to nine.

~

Thanks for reading! Hope you have a great week ahead :)

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Jan 27 - 19:01 DET vs L.A
Jan 27 - 19:01 PHI vs N.J
Jan 27 - 19:01 STL vs VAN
Jan 27 - 21:01 EDM vs SEA
Jan 27 - 22:01 S.J vs PIT

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
TONY DEANGELO NYI
MARTIN NECAS COL
MASON MCTAVISH ANA
MIKKO RANTANEN CAR
LUCA DEL BEL BELLUZ CBJ

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JUUSE SAROS NSH
ADIN HILL VGK
THATCHER DEMKO VAN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ANA Players
25.9 FRANK VATRANO TROY TERRY RYAN STROME
19.1 ISAC LUNDESTROM BRETT LEASON JANSEN HARKINS
17.8 MASON MCTAVISH CUTTER GAUTHIER ROBBY FABBRI

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: