Forum Buzz: Panarin, Celebrini, Pettersson, Oettinger vs. Shesterkin, J. Hughes, Stutzle, Hedman & More

Rick Roos

2025-01-29

Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am. 

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired forward who was born outside of North America

CLUE #2 – Despite this, I played in Canadian Juniors

CLUE #3 – I had more than twice as many assists as goals in my NHL career

CLUE #4 – I was never a point per game player in a regular season, but had 50+ assists 3 times

CLUE #5 – I played my entire NHL career for one team

CLUE #6 – I was skilled with the man advantage, finishing with double digits in PPPts 13 times, but never with 20+ in any single season

CLUE #7 – The one team for which I played my entire career is an Original Six team

CLUE #8 – I left the NHL to play oversees, but returned the next season, which ultimately would be my final NHL season, and which brought me to over 1000 NHL regular season games played

CLUE# 9 – I won a Stanley Cup as a player, leading the league in playoff scoring that season but not winning the Conn Smythe Trophy

CLUE #10 – In a subsequent season I led the entire NHL yet again in playoff scoring

CLUE #11 – I was born in what was the former Czechoslovakia

CLUE #12 – My initials are D.K.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. And yes, I realize this is the third Forum Buzz column in as many weeks, but the Forums remain fertile ground for great questions and discussions and it's still a little too soon for a Poll or Goldipucks. And I need your questions – hint, hint – before I can publish a mailbag column.

Topic #1In a 10 Team Roto keeper with 15 roster spots (9F, 4D, 2G) and separate G, A, and Pts categories for F and D, plus goalie categories of W and GAA, a GM had the following roster:

F: Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin, Zach Hyman, Anze Kopitar, Brandon Hagel, Travis KonecnyNikolaj Ehlers, Tom Wilson
D: Cale Makar, Alex Pietrangelo, Gustav Forsling, Devon Toews
G: Stuart Skinner, Mackenzie Blackwood
IR: D-Sean Durzi, D-Aaron Ekblad

Wanting to shore up their defense, they traded Panarin, Forsling, and Ekblad for Hedman and Malkin. Was it a good deal for them?

I'd say probably it was not. When one has talent the likes of McDavid, Kucherov, Panarin and Makar, that team will be in the thick of things every season. Or to put it another way, in a points-only league where there are only 13 skaters on the roster, this team had arguably four of the top twenty points only skaters in the entire NHLwhen, on average, most teams would should have two.

Yes, Hedman is still playing well, and gives the team a stack of sorts with Kucherov and Hagel; however, even at his lower than usual scoring pace, Hedman might be overachieving, what with his second highest secondary assist rate in a decade, plus a higher PP IPP than either of the prior two seasons. Also, the team's 5×5 team SH% with him on the ice is 10.1%, having only twice been double digits in the last ten seasons. Meanwhile, his OZ% is creeping down season by season. Also, not only is he 34 years old, and played nearly 1100 regular season games, but over the course of his career he's played exactly two regular season's worth of games in the playoffs. He might be just 34, but his legs likely feel a couple years older.

The closest recent comparable to Hedman might be is Nicklas Lidstrom, although I think most can agree Hedman is a notch below. Although Lidstrom had a point per game season at age 35, in fairness that was after being able to rest due to the canceled 2004-05 season, and from there Lidstrom's scoring did curtail, with the high-point being only 70 points in any of his last five seasons. Of course, past results do not dictate future outcomes, but this solidifies to me that Hedman was not enough of a return. At this point, Malkin is not much more than a throw in, as he seems like he's on a sharp decline.

Also, giving up Panarin means losing a player who, although not much younger than Hedman, has played far fewer games. Even on a Ranger team which hugely disappointed in the first half, he was well over a point per game. There's also the fact that Panarin will be a UFA after 2025-26, and could be reignited on a new squad. More on Panarin below in Topic #6.

Although getting defensemen scoring is so key, I feel like this is a trade which should not have happened. Either that, or the return should've been better, probably a step up from Malkin. Also, I'd likely have not wanted to include Ekblad, who is a UFA to be and might get far better deployment on whatever team he lands, notwithstanding the fact he's a Band-Aid-Boy with little chance of returning to the form that saw him score at a 77-point pace a couple of seasons ago.

Topic #2In a 15 team dynasty, rostering 16 players, starting 7F, 3D, 2G, and with scoring as points only for skaters and two points for a win, one for an OTL, and three more for a shutout for goalies, a team in win now mode has the following roster:

F : Leon Draisaitl, Kyle Connor, Tim Stutzle, Mark Scheifele, Jack Eichel, Dylan Larkin, Alex OvechkinJT MillerMatvei Michkov
D : Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Shayne Gostisbehere, Devon Toews
G : Igor Shesterkin, Thatcher Demko, Darcy Kuemper

They think that getting Kirill Kaprizov could put them over the top for this season, and therefore are prepared to offer in trade Michkov and Stutzle for Kaprizov and Shea Theodore. Should they make the trade?

I was all set to say that the team needs to focus more on its goaltending, but the scoring system is such that goalies matter very little. Also, I'm not sure I'd label this team in "win now" mode, as only Ovi is likely to decline in the near future. The rest of the forwards are in the age 27-32 sweet spot, and the defensemen even younger. In their shoes I want to make a trade that can benefit me now while not foreclosing upon the opportunity to win a few more titles before all is said and done.

Either way though, I am 100% fine trading Michkov. Yes, he could become supremely talented; but in this league not even 200 skaters are on rosters. As such, there is likely room for this team to be able to go prospecting if/when the time comes, and, in doing so, get 80% or so of what Michkov may have given them.

With Stutzle though, it's a tougher call. He was so outstanding two seasons ago; however, I'm not liking that his TOI is down considerably, as is his SOG rate, while his OZ% is 68.1%, which is extremely high, and his secondary assist rate is 60%. I do feel that if Stutzle doesn't right his ship versus where it is now, his trade value come this offseason will be much lower, as he'll be farther removed from his outstanding 2022-23, and less coveted. He still might become great; but I'm no longer as certain it will occur, nor will other GMs.

As for Theodore, I was shocked he re-upped with Vegas given what they committed to Noah Hanifin, plus the still looming presence of Alex Pietrangelo. Lo-and-behold Theodore is the unquestioned PP1 QB and with metrics that all seem legit. He's a great player to get.

Although what I said above about how I'd characterize this team, and in making the deal they'd get considerably older, I think it is a trade that makes sense. I'd do the deal.

Topic #3In a 12 team, H2H, Fantasy Points, keep 4 league with categories and values of P=4 PIM=0.1 PPP=1 SHP=3 GWG=1 SOG=0.25 HIT=0.25 BLK=0.25; W=6 L=-3 GA=-1 SV=.25 & SO=10, a GM has the following on their roster as of now:

F: Matthew TkachukNikita KucherovElias Pettersson, Kirill Marchenko, Drake Batherson, Tom Wilson, Dylan Holloway, Clayton Keller, Gabe Vilardi
D: Jacob Chychrun, Vince Dunn, Taylor Raddysh
G: Igor Shesterkin, Filip Gustavsson
IR: Drew Doughty

 They are thinking about not just this season, but down the road, especially the next three seasons. With that in mind, does it make sense for them to trade Pettersson and Shesterkin for Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger?

Let's look at the goalies first. Shesterkin is more proven, but also three years older. Oettinger is having a nice rebound after a subpar 2023-24, especially when you consider that in three of his eight Really Bad Starts he gave up three or fewer goals, and they were only Really Bad Starts due to the number of shots he faced. In comparison, Shesterkin has one fewer Really Bad Start, but all of his have indeed been really bad, plus in three starts he gave up four goals but they were not Really Bad Starts due to the number of shots he faced.

Also, although the team in front of him did not do him any favors in the first half, Shesterkin is in danger of seeing his GAA rise and SV% fall for the third straight season. Still though, more than two-thirds of his starts have been Quality Starts, a testament to him being skilled enough to keep his team in games despite its struggles. Oettinger's QS% is a notch lower, and some of that is likely owed to how strong his team is. Still, I realize Shesterkin has a Vezina and is now the highest paid goalie in the league; however, it is not clear as yet whether he can carry a team on his shoulders, as some truly elite goaltenders of the past did. Even if Otter is "worse" than Shesterkin in terms of objective and/or subjective skill, he might be the better own due to the team in front of him.

On the other hand, that same Dallas team has not helped Robertson. Yes, he has been red hot of late; however, that has been largely due to him receiving significantly more ice time than he'd been getting for a season and a half, likely owning to three of Dallas' top six forwards currently being out of the line-up. I'd feel a lot better if this was happening when everyone was healthy, and I do fear that once they are JRob will be throttled as he has been, hurting his numbers.

Pettersson has been an enormous let down since signing his huge deal. But with it looking more and more likely that one of him or JT Miller will be gone by 2025-26 at the latest, it may end up benefiting them both. The concern I have though is Pettersson's 102-point season stands as the only one where his scoring pace has been above 90, making it seem like an outlier. Plus, we see that his SOG per game that season was 3.2, compared to never being above 2.5 in any season prior or since. Last season Pettersson had a best ever PP scoring rate and his SH% was right at his career rate, yet still when the dust settled his scoring pace was 89, and that after him having emerged with 57 points in his first 43 games, meaning since then he has played nearly a season's worth of games – 81 to be exact – and has 62 points to show for it, and in his last three quarters his cumulative SOG rate has been below 2.0 per game. That is not good, no matter how you slice it.

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For the moment, Pettersson still has name value, and could indeed fetch a great return. That is key, since if he fails to reignite I fear his perception in fantasy will drop considerably. On the flip side, Robertson, even with his strong play, has seen his perceived value plummet. Thus, if the thinking is that Pettersson will continue to struggle but somehow Robertson will rise again, then this is a trade which needs to be made. Also, although I'd say Pettersson still might have a higher ceiling than JRob, his floor is definitely lower.

Looking at things as a whole, it would be difficult for me to part with Shesterkin despite what we've seen from the Rangers, who, by the way, appear as though they are turning things around. Oettinger's situational benefit has to be given strong consideration though. Also, New York's top-six is aging, and its best player Artemi Panarin could walk as a UFA after next season. Still, that might not be bad news for Shesterkin, as it is possible that New York revamps its approach and tries to become more of a defensively-focused team, built around Shesterkin. If that happens, Igor's numbers may improve.

This is a close call, and when that's the case usually I advocate to stay the course. Or I say that if the GM has a strong feeling one way or another, then they should follow that instinct, since on paper it seems like a pretty even swap.

One last thing. I know Wilson is a monster in this league; however, players like him almost never are able to stay productive even at the age he his now. Also, once they start to slow their stats tend to crater. It's called selling high for a reason, and I'd look to move Wilson now.

Topic #4In a 14 team, keep 6 league with categories and scoring of: G: 2, A, 1, +/-: .15, PPP: .35, SP: 1, SOG: .1, HIT: .15, BLK: .25, Wins: .75, GA: -.75, SV: .15, SH: 1, and with starting line-ups of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 3D, 2Util, a team is not going to make the playoffs but has stockpiled two picks in each of rounds one, two, three and five for next season's draft. Given all this, and their roster, as set forth below, who should their six keepers be?

C: Maclkin Celebrini, Elias Pettersson, Kent Johnson, Logan Cooley
W: Juraj Slafkovsky, Lucas Raymond, Jason Robertson
D: Rasmus Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen
G: Joseph Woll, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

The first thing that is clear is keepers matter a lot in this league/format, as in theory they'll be nearly half of this team's everyday lineup. I'm seeing a total of 11 players on this roster, such that if all teams are also comprised of only 11 players, barely 150 are rostered at a given time. That is important since it means this team will be unlikely to find any takers for those they don't keep. By the same token, the plethora of draft picks could lead to at least a couple of very solid players.

The other key is not to be swayed into looking too far ahead simply due to having so many draft picks. You still want to keep the best players all things considered, with their age being a factor but less so than one might be inclined to think. It also helps that no one on this team is older than 26, so keeping an "older" player in this case does not mean that player would be past their prime once the younger players round into form.

As such, locks are Dahlin and, notwithstanding what I said above, Pettersson and Robertson. They are not performing up to expectations for 2024-25, but still are the cream of this crop. Celebrini also is a must keep. Right now, at age 18, he's averaging 3.4 SOG per game and 0.88 points per game. In the history of the NHL only two centers have averaged at least that many SOG and points at age 18 while also playing 41+ games: Dale Hawerchuk and Sidney Crosby, both of whom had at least five seasons of 100+ points. Of course, past results do not predict future outcomes, but that is more than enough to make Celebrini a must keep.

That leaves two more spots. I remain a bit concerned at his lowish SOG rate, but I can no longer look past how well Lucas Raymond is doing. Yes, he might shoot less than most, but he is now on pace for a nearly 20% SH% for the second season in a row, which legitimizes that stat, plus he is turning into a PP machine. To me, he makes the cut.

The last one is the toughest. I'll start by saying neither of the goalies is in the conversation. They are not superb; and in a keep six with 150 players owned, I'd venture only the very best of the best goalies are kept, if even any are kept at all. That is a position which can be restocked via all those draft picks. Heiskanen struggling even more this season despite great deployment has me concerned enough to no longer put him in the upper echelon of d-man, and thus, also, not make him a keep.

It then comes down to Slaf, Cooley, and Johnson. I think Slaf is a safe non-keep, as although he still has big time name value as a former first overall pick and due to playing for the Habs, he has not built upon his success toward the end of last season. More and more he is looking like someone who, as a larger framed player, might indeed need until game 400 to truly break out. Johnson has done quite well, but the Columbus top-six is pretty crowded, such that although he's on PP1 for now, who's to say that will continue? To me, Cooley narrowly edges Johnson for the last spot. His PP percentage is lower, but that is due to what happened early in the season, as he is now firmly entrenched on PP1. He's scoring at a high rate, plus both his IPPs are just under the 70%, which is the magic mark that I've tended to see is indicative of a young player who might be special.

The keepers are Dahlin, Robertson, Petterson, Celebrini, Raymond, and Cooley. Though I'd look to re-draft Johnson.

Topic #5In a ten team, keep six, H2H league with rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1UTIL, 4D, 3G, 2IR+, 1NA and categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, H, B, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO, with four minimum goalie starts per week, a team has the following roster:

C: Robert Thomas, Anthony Cirelli, Jordan Staal
LW: Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle, Kirill Kaprizov, Jonathan Drouin
RW: Mitch Marner, Brandon Hagel, Anton Lundell, Timo Meier
D: Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Rasmus DahlinDougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, Luke Schenn
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Filip Gustavsson, MacKenzie Blackwood
I/R: Jeremy Lauzon

They are pondering whether to try and trade for Jack Hughes. If so, what should they offer?

If this team was to do nothing, their potential keepers would be Draisaitl, Stutzle, Kaprizov, Marner, Makar, Bouchard, Dahlin, and Vasilevskiy. That right there is pretty darn good. I could see a strong case for getting Hughes if, for example, the team had five locks and two or three very solid guys who might entice another team. The issue is the rest of the team other than those eight are unlikely to convince a GM to part with Hughes. As such, not only would Hughes need to be better than six of those eight in terms of keeper value, but the team would need to trade one or more quite strong players in order to get Hughes, which could run the risk of making the other team "more better" by what they get for Hughes than what they had if they didn't trade him. I think that in all but very rare instances, one should not decide whether or not to make a trade based on a fear of causing a competing team to improve, so long as you improve. Don't get me wrong – it is worth considering; however, almost never could I see a scenario where one doesn't make a trade in fear of the other team having better net benefit.

As for Hughes, I think this is exactly the time to try to grab him, as he looks to be rounding into the Hughes of old, which made him the second center in the history of the NHL, by age 21, to produce at a 1.25+ points per game rate in a season while also averaging 4+ SOG per game, with the other being some guy named Wayne Gretzky. In Q2 he was back above four SOG per game and his scoring was up considerably. It is true he is most certainly weak in banger categories; however, he's in rarified air in terms of his SOG for a center, such that it balances things out if not entirely then at least for the most part.

I would do what I could to get him, other than parting with any of Kaprizov, Draisaitl, Makar Dahlin or Bouchard, as I think those are slam-dunk, core keepers. I get that Marner's floor is very high, but he's only once done as well as he is now, and Stutzle concerns me in terms of his shrinking TOI and SOG rate. I'd have no qualms with using one of them to get Hughes, and, in turn, having Hughes become the team's sixth envisioned keeper. But I'd rather not trade both. It's less so about the net result being the other team being more improved, as it is that the deal being unfair on paper. Hughes is a top tier talent; however, he's not a player who can command both Marner and Stutzle in return. If the other GM demands them both, I'd decline. My guess is they will back off, and a deal can occur where only one of them would need to be included.

I'll note that later in the thread the poster says they can inquire about Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, or Nikita Kucherov. For them, I'd not only feel okay with, but expect at minimum to have to part with, both Stutzle and Marner. Yes, Hughes could reach their level; but he's not there yet, making it a great time to obtain him. But if that GM digs their heels, then approach the GM(s) who own these three and do anything you can, other than parting with one of the five I listed, to get a deal done. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say Bouchard could be in the conversation. Yes, he really is looking like the closest thing to Makar and Quinn Hughes, but those three are proven elite players, and this GM likely would have to really put forth a sweet deal to be able to pry any one of them away from their GM(s).

Topic #6 – In a 12 teams, no cap, keep 14 (and 4 rookies, defined as <150 games played) with categories and scoring of G (1), A (1), +/- (0.25), H (0.1), B(0.1), PIM (0.1), SOG (0.1), GWG (1), PPP (1), SHP (1), W (2), SO (3), GA (-0.5), OTL (1), SV (0.1), a team is in the hunt for first with the following roster:

F: Jack HughesLogan Cooley (r), Jesper Bratt, Patrik Laine, Matthew Tkachuk, Martin Necas, Nikita KucherovSeth JarvisMatvei Michkov (r), Wyatt Johnston, Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPatrick Kane, Chandler Stephenson, Adam Lowry

D: Zach WerenskiMikhail SergachevBrandt Clarke (r), Shea Theodore, Colton Parayko, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Dmitri OrlovAlexander Nikishin (r)

G: Ilya Sorokin, Jake Oettinger, Yaroslav Askarov (r), Cam Talbot, Jake Allen

They might be able to obtain Artemi Panarin for Wyatt Johnston. Should they make the deal, especially considering they have no first round picks in either of the next two seasons?

Looking at this team, I can see why it's doing well. Beyond that, it should be able to stay as strong, if not get stronger, in the near term, and that's notwithstanding the lack of first round picks. It also has enough youth to "afford" to trade away Johnston. But is Panarin worth losing Johnston? Yes, Panarin is already 33 years old; however, he does not seem to be slowing with age, and could be considered a "young" 33 given that he didn't debut in the NHL until age 24, before which he never played even 55 games in a season. Plus, if we look at wingers who scored at a 1.25 point per game or higher pace multiple times between ages 28 and 32, we see that in the history of the NHL the only two to do so four times were Panarin and Nikita Kucherov. Among those who did so three times were Brad Marchand and Guy Lafleur, both of whom began to slow at age 34. But I'm not sure I'd liken Panarin to either of those, whereas Kucherov does seem more apt. In short, I do not see Panarin's production falling off a cliff any time soon.

Let's also not forget that Panarin is set to be a UFA in the summer of 2026. As such, he'll have a lot of motivation to play well to boost what likely will be his last NHL contract. Even as the Rangers were struggling mightily in the first half, Panarin was still scoring at nearly a 90-point pace. His IPPs this season are both over 80%, which is as elite as can be, and would mark the second time in his career that he'd be over 80% for both. He's a points magnet, pure and simple, again drawing comparisons to Kucherov, who has similar IPPs.

In short, Panarin is a proven top tier scorer, who, although at an age when other successful wingers have started to slow, seems less at risk of doing so given how outstanding he is plus him having less mileage on him than most his age. Yes, Johnston is a steep price to pay, as his future seems bright. But you have to give to get; and by virtue of being on Dallas, Johnston's scoring likely will remain throttled due to not getting the kind of minutes and OZ% to be able to thrive. As noted before, this team, despite lacking first rounders in the next two drafts, has enough talent comparable in age and upside to Johnston such that it can make this kind of move and have it be a short-term gain without enough long term pain to not make the trade. I'm doing this deal, and not thinking twice about it.

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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….David Krejci!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line. 

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