Welcome back to this week's edition of Analytics Advantage! As the NHL season progresses, fantasy hockey managers are continuously searching for players who can provide an edge in various league formats. This week, we analyze five notable players: Aliaksei Protas, Bo Horvat, Pavel Dorofeyev, Seth Jones, and Brent Burns.

By utilizing per-60-minute metrics, we gain a more balanced view of a player's performance relative to their ice time, making it easier to compare impact players across different roles and teams.

 Analysis Overview

To evaluate these players, we focus on:

 Goals/60, Assists/60, Shots/60, Hits/60, Shots Blocked/60, and Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG/60).

 Visual Comparisons:

  1. Stacked Bar Graphs – Compare each player's production to league averages.

  2. Scatter Plot (FPPG vs. TOI/GP) – Shows how efficiently players generate fantasy points relative to ice time.

  3. Bubble Chart (Hits/60 vs. Shots Blocked/60) – Highlights defensive and physical contributions.

 

Player Breakdowns

 Pavel Dorofeyev

 Fantasy Role: Goal scorer with elite shot volume, best for standard and goal-heavy formats.

 Strengths: High shot generation, efficient goal scoring, strong offensive deployment.

 Concerns: Low assist totals, minimal physicality, limited versatility.

Dorofeyev excels in shot volume, ranking in the 99th percentile for Shots/60 (10.96). His 1.59 Goals/60 (97^th percentile) makes him a strong goal-heavy league option, but his Assists/60 (48^th percentile) indicates he isn't much of a playmaker.

In the FPPG vs. TOI/GP scatter plot, he is above league average, reinforcing that he maximizes his ice time well. However, his Hits/60 (7^th percentile) and Blocks/60 (31^st percentile) place him low on the Hits vs. Blocks chart, making him a poor fit for physical leagues.

Fantasy Outlook: A strong waiver add in scoring leagues where goals and shots are prioritized, but lacks the peripheral stats needed for banger formats.

 Bo Horvat

 Fantasy Role: Well-rounded center, valuable in faceoff-heavy and multicategory leagues.

 Strengths: Balanced scoring, high shot volume, elite faceoff wins.

 Concerns: Below-average physical play, limited shot blocking impact.

Horvat is a strong dual category scorer, ranking in the 87^th percentile for Goals/60 (1.13) and 79^th percentile for Assists/60 (1.25). His high shot volume (92^nd percentile in Shots/60) ensures consistent fantasy production.

His Faceoff% (93^rd percentile) is a major asset for leagues counting draws, but his Hits/60 (52^nd percentile) and Blocks/60 (13^th percentile) limit his impact in banger leagues. The scatter plot positions him slightly above league average for FPPG, reinforcing his consistency rather than elite upside.

Fantasy Outlook: A great fit for standard formats and faceoff heavy leagues, but doesn't provide enough peripherals to be an automatic must roster in all formats.

 Aliaksei Protas

 Fantasy Role: Offensively efficient depth forward, useful in deep leagues.

 Strengths: Strong goal and assist rates, efficient shooter.

 Concerns: Minimal physicality, low defensive impact, doesn't take many faceoffs.

While Protas is listed as a center, he primarily plays wing, meaning his Faceoff % (16^th percentile) is misleading. His 1.54 Goals/60 (96^th) and 1.54 Assists/60 (88^th percentile) indicate a well-rounded offensive contributor.

However, his Hits/60 (7^th percentile) and Blocks/60 (24^th percentile) leave a lot to be desired in multicategory leagues. His positioning in the Hits vs. Blocks scatter plot confirms that he isn't a defensive or physical factor.

Fantasy Outlook: A strong offensive depth piece in deeper leagues but lacks the all-around production to be a must-own in standard formats.

 Seth Jones

 Fantasy Role: Defensive oriented blueliner with elite TOI, ideal for block-heavy leagues.

 Strengths: Heavy minutes, strong FPPG, good shot blocking.

 Concerns: Below-average goal scoring, moderate shot volume.

Jones logs significant ice time (24.67 TOI/GP, 99^th percentile), which helps sustain his fantasy value despite lower scoring rates (Goals/60: 44^th percentile). His FPPG/60 (91^st percentile) is among the best for defensemen.

He excels in Shot Blocks (80^th percentile), making him a strong asset in leagues emphasizing defense. His position in the Hits vs. Blocks scatter plot shows that his value is defensive rather than physical.

Fantasy Outlook: A solid option for defensive leagues but lacks offensive firepower to be a top fantasy defenseman in standard leagues.

 Brent Burns

 Fantasy Role: Veteran defenseman with declining offensive output, still serviceable in deep leagues.

 Strengths: Solid shot volume, reliable TOI, strong puck possession.

 Concerns: Low goalscoring, below average physicality.

Burns is still above average in FPPG (75^th percentile) and maintains a strong Shots/60 rate (70^th percentile). However, his Goals/60 (31^st percentile) and Hits/60 (2^nd percentile) confirm that his fantasy upside is fading.

The Hits vs. Blocks scatter plot places him in a low physicality category, reinforcing that he's no longer a strong multicategory asset. While his TOI remains high (91^st percentile), his diminishing offensive returns make him a depth fantasy piece rather than a priority waiver add.

Fantasy Outlook: Still viable in deep leagues, but his declining goalscoring makes him a fading asset in most standard formats.

 Key Takeaways

 Dorofeyev & Protas are high scoring depth options but lack peripheral stats, making them format dependent.

 Horvat is well-rounded, particularly in faceoff heavy leagues.

 Jones offers high shot-blocking value, making him a great defensive league asset.

 Burns remains serviceable in deep leagues, but his fantasy relevance is shrinking.

These players bring different strengths depending on league format. If you need scoring, Dorofeyev and Protas stand out. If you need defensive depth, Jones is a solid choice.

How FPPG is Calculated

Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) combines goals, assists, shots, blocks, and hits, weighted to reflect their fantasy relevance, divided by games played. This calculation ensures that players are evaluated comprehensively based on their overall contributions to fantasy scoring.

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Data Source: NaturalStatTrick (January 28, 2025)