Fantasy Take: Granlund Swims to the Stars

Brennan Des

2025-02-01

Friday's flurry of trades extended into Saturday as the Sharks sent Mikael Granlund and Cody Ceci to Dallas in exchange for a first and fourth round pick in 2025. That fourth would become a third if Dallas makes it to the Stanley Cup Final this year .

Across the league, that's now three straight trades involving first round picks in the upcoming draft. Dobber Alum Cam Robinson helps us understand this isn't coincidence, but a pattern that reflects the quality of this year's crop. 

Granlund seems like a logical replacement for Tyler Seguin, who's on the shelf for another two to four months with a hip injury. A quick comparison of each player's role this season lets you know that this move isn't ideal for Granlund's fantasy value. He was skating nearly 21 minutes a night in San Jose, enjoying a 68% share of the Shark's total power-play time. In contrast, Seguin was skating 16 minutes a night before he got injured, seeing a measly 42% of Dallas' PP time. Granlund's 71-point pace over the past two seasons in San Jose is really impressive, but that output was largely fuelled by a high volume of opportunity with the Sharks. There's much more talent ahead of him in Dallas, which means he'll have to accept a smaller role. That's concerning because the last time he was forced into a depth role, with the Penguins in 2022-23, he posted five points in 21 games. Now, because Dallas' top-9 is more talented than most teams, Granlund will benefit from skating beside good players. That should help offset some of his role reduction, leading to a less drastic drop off than we saw in Pittsburgh. It seems fruitless to speculate on line combinations because there are so many possibilities for the middle-six, especially once Mason Marchment and Seguin are healthy, but it's reassuring to know Granlund will be surrounded by skill. 

Of course, Granlund's departure leaves a huge hole in San Jose's lineup. Will Smith has been hot recently, thriving on a line with Granlund, so we'll see if Smith's even-strength production takes a hit in the short term. A dip in even-strength offense for Smith could be offset by more power-play opportunity if he fills the opening on PP1, but that honour could also go to Alex Wennberg. Speaking of Wennberg, I imagine he steps up to the second-line center role now, although I wouldn't expect much given his lacklustre production in recent years. 

Granlund is a free agent after this season, so this is likely just a rental for Dallas. Although, with Jamie Benn's $9.5 million coming off the books in the summer, there could be room for an extension if Granlund ends up being a good fit. Of course, that would also depend on the magnitude of RFA Wyatt Johnston's next contract. 

Ceci struggled in San Jose this year, but will likely have less on his plate in Dallas, which could help him perform slightly better. He gives the team a bit more depth with Miro Heiskanen sidelined long term, but won't be relevant in many fantasy leagues.

Who this should help:

Dallas' middle-six

📢 advertisement:

Alex Wennberg

Who this might hurt: 

Will Smith (if he doesn't move up to PP1)

Mikael Granlund

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

No data found.

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
ZACK BOLDUC MTL
ANDREW MANGIAPANE EDM
PIUS SUTER
CURTIS LAZAR EDM
MASON APPLETON

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
CHRIS HOLT
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
HUNTER SHEPARD OTT
KAAPO KAHKONEN MTL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CGY Players
20.0 MATT CORONATO BLAKE COLEMAN MIKAEL BACKLUND
19.5 YEGOR SHARANGOVICH MORGAN FROST JOEL FARABEE
17.3 SAM MORTON RYAN LOMBERG DRYDEN HUNT

DobberHockey Podcasts

Fantasy Hockey Life: Calgary Flames with Steve MacFarlane

Steve MacFarlane is here to report on the Calgary Flames. Jesse and Victor interview Steve about returning pros Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, Matt Coronato, Connor Zary, Yegor Sharangovich, Morgan Frost, Martin Pospisil, Joel Farabee, MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson, Zayne Parekh, Dustin Wolf, Dan Vladar, and Devin Cooley. In Cat’s Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag […]

Fantasy Hockey Life: Buffalo Sabres with Mike Augello

Michael Augello of The Hockey News and Hockey Hot Stove is here to report on the Buffalo Sabres. Jesse and Victor interview Michael about returning pros Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka, Alex Tuch, Jason Zucker, Jack Quinn, Ryan McLeod, Josh Norris, Jiri Kulich, Zach Benson, Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Bowen Byram, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, James Reimer, and […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: