Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be revisiting my True Value Goalie Rankings to examine the goalie landscape. If you are unfamiliar with my True Value constructs (Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks), I utilize these to model a Goalie's True Value in head-to-head (H2H) category leagues. You can find a deep dive into this topic in a previous article here. In this article, I will be highlighting a goalie's consistency over the past eight weeks specifically. Some goalies have moved to a new team, while some have had drastically different performances over the past eight weeks compared to their starts.

In general, in your weekly H2H leagues, a goalie is only as good as they perform for you week-in-week out. Sometimes a Goalie's cumulative stats are elite (+.930 SV%), but they tend to have some terrible weeks followed by great weeks. For your H2H fantasy league, they may have only performed well in 60% of your matchups. Their ranking in Yahoo, ESPN, or Fantrax won't represent that inconsistency – The True Value Goalie rankings do. These rankings are built specifically for H2H category leagues that include Wins, SV%, GAA, and SO. They will also be relevant if you don't count SO, but are not as relevant for volume-heavy leagues (e.g. [W, Saves, SV%]).

Here is a breakdown of the criteria of the True Value Goalie constructs:

Please note, these constructs may slightly differ from the constructs represented in FrozenTools.

Quality Week (QW) – When a goalie has performed above the weekly average in two out of three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). Last season, the average QW% was 55%.

Star Week (SW) – When a goalie has ranked top 15 for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). OR if your goalie has had a quality week AND has also gotten a shutout (This assumes SO is a counted category). Last season, the average SW% was 22%.

Really Bad Week (RBW) – When a goalie has ranked below the top 30 goalies for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA), and has not gotten a shutout. These are weeks in which it would have been more valuable for your team to not have the goalie rostered/started. Last season, the average RBW% was 23%.

The True Value rankings take into account these three constructs week-in-week-out to evaluate Goalie consistency for your H2H leagues. You can find these rankings here, updated throughout the season.

Barring any drastic changes from Sunday night performances, here's the top 20 through 17 (of the 26 total) fantasy hockey weeks:

Before going into performances from the past eight weeks, I'll highlight a few big names that differ in these rankings compared to Yahoo's standard rankings.

Darcy Kuemper – Yahoo Rank = 5, True Value Rank = 1

Kuemper has been the top goalie so far in head-to-head category leagues. The reason this is not represented in his top 5 Yahoo ranking is his lack of elite win numbers. He still proves to provide plenty of value in his losses though. He has shown that when he's on, he's on, leading the league in Star Weeks. Yet, when he's not a star, he is still great, providing only one Really Bad Week thus far and a Quality Week 87% of the time.

Sergei Bobrovsky – Yahoo Rank = 16, True Value Rank = 7

Bobrovsky's subpar .902 SV% is keeping his Yahoo rank down. He has been greatly consistent though, grabbing a Quality Week 82% of the time. He'll continue to be a consistent option on one of the best teams in the league.

Lukas Dostal – Yahoo Rank = 42, True Value Rank = 13

After Dostal had a stellar start to the season, he's returned to earth, dropping down to rank 42 in Yahoo! That is far too low, especially with just one Really Bad Week this season. He remains consistent, but may not provide the flashy stats or Star Weeks. His value should only grow if Anaheim decides to trade away a resurging John Gibson.

Hottest Goalies: The Past Eight Weeks

Goalie performance is inherently quite variable. One season a goalie is in the Vezina conversation, another he's not even in the conversation for the top 20 (cough, cough, Juuse Saros). This variance happens within the season too. Some goalies go on great stretches of stellar play only to fall off a cliff allowing five or six goals against in multiple games later on. In this section, I'm going to highlight the goalie landscape over the past eight weeks.

Here is the top 25 in True Value over the past eight weeks:

Lukas Dostal

As mentioned before, Dostal had an insane start to the season, coming back down to earth lately. However, he is still putting up above average numbers – he just lacks the Star Weeks (with zero in the past eight weeks). At least he also has no Really Bad Weeks either.

Mackenzie Blackwood

Blackwood has been on the Avalanche for seven fantasy weeks. His fantasy value drastically improved as soon as he was traded. He has yet to pick up a Really Bad Week on Colorado and gets a Quality Week 75% of the time. I am confident in naming Blackwood as a top-8 fantasy goalie for the rest of the season.

Leevi Merilainen

The Senators' rookie has been a great surprise lately. He picked up just one Really Bad Week in the last seven weeks and has a great Star Week percentage (57%). With Ullmark coming back, Merilainen was sent back down to the AHL, but keep an eye on him. He could be a great pickup if there is need of him again on a Senators team fighting for a playoff spot.

Filip Gustavsson

Still top 6 in the True Value Rankings from some early stellar play, Gustavsson is nowhere to be found in the top 20 when looking at the past eight weeks. He's way down at 48th! He has just three Quality Weeks and one Star Week in his last seven Active Weeks. He also had two Really Bad Weeks in this time. This performance actually provided negative value to those that have held on. This just shows how up and down the goalie position can be. It's unclear whether Gustavsson can find a hot stretch again, or if this is his new normal.

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

Follow me on Twitter/X @fantasycheddar for more fantasy hockey advice and updates throughout the season.