I've updated my player valuations up to the end of January and thought we could go through the best surpluses and worst deficits on each team in the West. This is a comparison to what level a player is performing at compared to their actual salary cap hit.
It is easy to say that a player with a huge contract is underperforming, but more often than not they are playing to a level that still makes them a very good NHL player, just not to the level that they should be playing.
I've only included forwards and defence for now and have left goalies alone. The calculation is slightly different for forwards than defenders as the average salary cap hits are a little different.
Anaheim Ducks
Best Value Forward (BVF): Mason McTavish ($895k cap hit, RFA next year)
McTavish has a value of $5.6 million, which gives him a surplus of just over $4.7 million in 2024-25. He's a pending RFA, so expect his next contract to be between $6 and 7 million if long-term.
Best Value Defender (BVD): Jackson LaCombe ($925k/one year remaining)
LaCombe is playing at a value above $6.7 million and has a surplus of just over $5.8 million.
Worst Value Forward (WVF): Alex Killorn ($6.25 million/two)
I have Killorn playing at a value around $2.5 million, so he has a deficit of around $3.75 million in 2024-25.
Worst Value Defender (WVD): Jacob Trouba ($8 million/one)
Trouba is carrying a value of $5.7 million in 2024-25 and is signed at $8 million AAV till the end of 2025-26.
Calgary Flames
BVF: Matt Coronato ($925k/RFA)
Coronato is playing to a value just above $5.4 million which gives him a surplus just above $4.5 million. Connor Zary was second on the Flames with a surplus above $3.4 million.
BVD: Kevin Bahl ($1.05 million/RFA)
Bahl has been a pleasant surprise for the Flames and is playing at a value just under $3.7 million, which gives him a surplus of $2.65 million.
WVF: Jonathan Huberdeau ($10.5 million/six)
Huberdeau is playing at a value above $5.5 million, but that puts him at a deficit at close to $5 million in 2024-25. The Flames traded the closest player to Huberdeau, which was Andrei Kuzmenko who was around $4.7 million in deficit.
WVD: Jake Bean ($1.75 million/one)
Bean is the only defender on the Flames who is playing at a deficit as he has a current value of $962k, which is a deficit of around $790k.
Chicago Blackhawks
BVF: Connor Bedard ($950k/one)
Bedard has a value of $6.8 million in 2024-25 which gives him a surplus of almost $5.9 million. Most suspect his value to soar.
BVD: Louis Crevier ($775k/RFA)
I usually like to have more than 23 games to draw from, but Crevier's value after that many games is $3.15 million (proportional to 75 games).
WVF: Ilya Mikheyev ($4.75 million/one)
Mikheyev has a value of just $1.2 million, which gives him a deficit of just under $3.6 million.
WVD: T.J. Brodie ($3.75 million/one)
Brodie has a value of $775k which is the lowest we have and has a deficit close to $3 million. He could be a buy-out candidate.
Colorado Avalanche
BVF: Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6 million/six)
Even at his current contract, MacKinnon still carries a value of just under $15.7 million in 2024-25 which gives him a surplus of $3.1 million.
BVD: Cale Makar ($9 million/two)
Makar is playing to a value of just under $12 million which gives him a surplus of just over $3 million.
WVF: Casey Mittelstadt ($5.75 million/two)
Mittelstadt has a value of just under $3.5 million and carries a deficit of just under $2.3 million.
WVD: Devon Toews ($7.25 million/six)
Toews struggled early in 2024-25 but has been better of late. His current value is just over $5.8 million which gives him a deficit of just under $1.5 million.
Dallas Stars
BVF: Wyatt Johnston ($894k/RFA)
Johnston is going to get paid. I show his value in 2024-25 at just below $8.1 million which gives him a surplus around $7.2 million.
BVD: Thomas Harley ($4 million/one)
Harley is carrying a value of around $6.4 million, which gives him a surplus of $2.4 million.
WVF: Jamie Benn (9.5 million/UFA)
Benn isn't playing poorly and still has a value of just over $5.7 million, but it does give him a deficit of $3.8 million in the last year of this contract.
WVD: Matt Dumba ($3.75 million/one)
Dumba was perhaps a mistake signing for two years at $3.75 million AAV. His value is the league minimum of $775k which gives him a deficit of almost $3 million.
Edmonton Oilers
BVF: Leon Draisaitl ($8.5 million/re-signed for eight more years at $14 million AAV)
His value in 2024-25 is $14.25 million which gives him a surplus of $5.75 million and puts him right in line with his future contract.
BVD: Evan Bouchard ($4 million/RFA)
Bouchard comes in with a value just under $9.1 million which gives him a surplus of almost $5.1 million. His next contract will likely be between $8.5 and 9.5 million AAV.
WVF: Mattias Janmark ($1.45 million/two)
Janmark shows as the only forward in a deficit for the Oilers which is a great sign. My valuation might be a little unfair at just $775k as he does provide decent defensive play.
WVD: Darnell Nurse ($9.25 million/five)
Nurse is no stranger to being here, but he has been better in 2024-25. I show him with a value of just under $7.4 million which is a deficit of just under $1.9 million.
Los Angeles Kings
BVF: Alex Laferriere ($875k/RFA)
Laferriere has a current value just above $5.8 million with a surplus of around $4.9 million. He probably won't get that money on his next contract, but I could certainly see $3.5 to 4.5 million AAV.
BVD: Brandt Clarke ($863k/one)
Clarke was a healthy scratch the other night with Drew Doughty back in the lineup. I have him with a current value of $6.1 million based just on his play in 2024-25. That gives him a surplus of around $5.3 million.
WVF: Quinton Byfield ($6.25 million/four) and Kevin Fiala ($7.87 million/four)
Byfield just squeezes out Fiala with a deficit of $2.3 million (value $3.95 million) while Fiala has a deficit of $2.2 million (with a value just over $5.6 million).
WVD: Vladislav Gavrikov ($5.87 million/UFA)
Drew Doughty would probably be here with his two years remaining at $11 million AAV but having played just three games, I'm not going to include him. Gavrikov has a value of just under $4.5 million which carries a deficit of almost $1.4 million.
Minnesota Wild
BVF: Marco Rossi ($863k/RFA)
Rossi has a value of just under $7.3 million and will probably sign for between $7 and 8 million if they don't bridge him.
BVD: Jake Middleton ($2.45 million/four)
Middleton surprised me by being here, as I thought Brock Faber would slot here. Middleton has a value close to $7 million for what he has done in 2024-25 while Faber is close to $4.2 million. Faber is an RFA.
WVF: Yakov Trenin ($3.5 million/three)
I have Trenin with a value just below $1.5 million, which is a deficit of $2 million. Not a great sign with three more years at $3.5 million AAV.
WFD: Jared Spurgeon ($7.57 million/two)
Spurgeon has played 38 games in 2024-25, which is good news for the Wild. His value has been around $5.8 million, which is still very good, but his deficit is almost $1.8 million.
Nashville Predators
BVF: Filip Forsberg ($8.5 million/five)
Forsberg has been one of the few highlights for the Predators in 2024-25. I have his value at around $10.6 million.
BVD: Nick Blankenberg ($775k/one)
Blankenberg has played just 27 games in 2024-25 but his value prorated to 75 games is just under $3.5 million.
WVF: Steven Stamkos ($8 million/three)
Stamkos has struggled as a member of the Predators but still carries a value close to $5.7 million which is a deficit of $2.3 million.
WVD: Brady Skjei ($7 million/six)
Skjei has a value just below $4.2 million, which might be a concern for a player with his contract.
San Jose Sharks
BVF: Macklin Celebrini ($975k/two)
Celebrini is already valued at close to $9.2 million for his play as a rookie. If he stays healthy, I'm not sure how he won't win the Calder Trophy.
BVD: Jake Walman ($3.4 million/one)
Walman has taken off in San Jose and has a current value of $8.7 million with a surplus close to $5.3 million.
WVF: Barclay Goodrow ($3.64 million/two)
Goodrow carries a value of $775k and a deficit close to $2.9 million. Will the Sharks buy him out in the off season?
WVD: Jan Rutta ($2.75 million/UFA)
I'm not including Marc-Edouard Vlasic as he has played just seven games in 2024-25, otherwise he would be a slam dunk here.
Rutta has a value of close to $1.8 million and might bring a fourth or fifth round pick when the Sharks trade him.
Seattle Kraken
BVF: Shane Wright ($887k/two)
Wright has taken a step in 2024-25 and now carries a value of $3.4 million.
BVD: Ryker Evans ($897k/RFA)
Evans is playing for a much bigger payday. I have him valued at just over $4 million and expect him to re-sign for between $3 and 4 million.
WVF: Andre Burakovsky ($5.5 million/two)
Burakovsky carries a value of just under $1.7 million which gives him a deficit of almost $3.8 million.
WVD: Jamie Oleksiak ($4.6 million/one)
Oleksiak has a value of $3.1 million in 2024-25 and has a deficit of $1.5 million.
St. Louis Blues
BVF: Dylan Holloway ($2.29 million/one)
Holloway has been great as a member of the Blues and has a value of just over $7.5 million for his 2024-25 play. That gives him a surplus of almost $5.3 million.
BVD: Colton Parayko ($6.5 million/five)
Parayko carries a value of close to $8 million for his play in 2024-25 with a surplus of $1.5 million.
WVF: Radek Faksa ($3.25 million/UFA)
Faksa is a defensive specialist, so his value is difficult to convey accurately. My value has him at just under $1.6 million.
WVD: Cam Fowler ($6.5 million/one)
Fowler has a value of $4.3 million with a deficit of $2.2 million. He edges out Justin Faulk who has a value of $4.4 million with a deficit of $2.1 million.
Utah Hockey Club
BVF: Dylan Guenther ($894k/re-signed for eight years at $7.14 million AAV)
Guenther has a value of $7.3 million in 2024-25 which is almost spot on for what he signed for. He just edged out teammate Logan Cooley who has a value of $7.3 million on his salary of $950k which he has for one more year. Expect his value to keep rising.
BVD: Michael Kesselring ($1.4 million/one)
Kesselring has played well in 2024-25 to the value of $4.4 million for a surplus close to $3 million.
WVF: Lawson Crouse ($4.3 million/two)
Crouse has played to a value of close to $2 million in 2024-25, which leaves him with a deficit of $2.3 million. He is very close to teammate Matias Maccelli, who has a value of around $1.2 million compared to a contract of $3.42 million with one year remaining.
WVD: Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5 million/six)
Sergachev has been decent in his first season with Utah and has a value of almost $6.8 million. His deficit is close to $1.7 million.
Vancouver Canucks
BVF: Kiefer Sherwood ($1.5 million/one)
Sherwood might not be able to sustain his current value of $5.7 million, but he's been great for them after his first 48 games.
BVD: Quinn Hughes ($7.85 million/two)
Hughes is carrying a value of close to $12 million in 2024-25 which is a surplus of $4.15 million.
WVF: Elias Pettersson ($11.6 million/seven)
Pettersson has a value of close to $7.4 million. Good but not nearly good enough for a player making $11.6 million AAV. His deficit of $4.2 million will be tough to swallow more than a few times over the life of that contract.
WVD: Filip Hronek ($7.25/seven)
Hronek will have a hard time playing to his value on this contract. In 2024-25, he is at around $4.5 million in value for a deficit close to $2.7 million.
Vegas Golden Knights
BVF: Pavel Dorofeyev ($1.83 million/one)
Dorofeyev has an impressive value of $6.2 million and has become an important fixture on the Vegas roster, which is important as he was developed from within the organization.
BVD: Shea Theodore ($5.2 million/re-signed for $7.425 million AAV for seven years)
Theodore has a value of $7.8 million in 2024-25 which is a surplus of $2.6 million and just above his new contract.
WVF: William Karlsson ($5.9 million/two)
Karlsson has a value just under $5.6 million for a small deficit of $300k. That is how well the forwards on this roster have performed.
WVD: Noah Hanifin ($7.35 million/seven) and Alex Pietrangelo ($8.8 million/two)
Hanifin has a current value of just under $5 million for a deficit close to $2.4 million, while Pietrangelo has a value of $6.5 million for a deficit close to $2.3 million.
Winnipeg Jets
BVF: Kyle Connor ($7.14 million/one)
Connor has a value of just over $11 million in 2024-25 for a surplus of close to $4 million.
BVD: Dylan Samberg ($1.4 million/RFA)
Dylan Samberg has been of great value for the Jets in 2024-25 at $4.9 million and a surplus of $3.5 million. I think he will re-sign with the Jets between $2.5 and 3.5 million AAV.
Morrissey has a value of just over $8.3 million and a surplus of just over $2 million in 2024-25.
WVF: Alex Iafallo ($4 million/UFA)
Iafallo has a current value of $1.9 million with a deficit of $2.1 million.
WVD: Dylan DeMelo ($4.9 million/three)
DeMelo has a value of $3.4 million with a deficit close to $1.5 million.
Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments, please leave them below or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15