Welcome back to this week's edition of Analytics Advantage! As the NHL season progresses, fantasy managers are searching for players who can provide an edge in key categories. This week, we break down the performances of five intriguing players: Dylan Guenther, Quinton Byfield, Morgan Rielly, Cam Fowler, and Adam Larsson. Using 60-minute metrics, we analyze their fantasy value and identify areas where they can contribute the most. All data as of the afternoon of Tuesday, February 4^th.

Analysis Overview

To evaluate these players, we rely on key per-60 metrics such as Goals/60, Assists/60, Shots/60, Hits/60, Shots Blocked/60, and Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG/60). These stats help normalize production across different ice times, giving a clearer view of a player's impact.

Our visual analysis includes:

                1.Stacked Bar Graphs comparing each player's performance to league averages.

                2.Scatter Plot (FPPG vs. TOI/GP) to highlight player efficiency based on ice time.

                3.Bubble Chart (Hits/60 vs. Shots Blocked/60) to showcase defensive impact and physicality.

Player Analyses

Dylan Guenther

Key Strengths: High-end goal scoring, strong offensive efficiency.

Concerns: Low physicality, moderate defensive impact.

Guenther has emerged as a top-tier goal scorer, sitting in the 97^th percentile for Goals/60 (1.60) and the 94^th percentile for Shots/60 (9.36). His Assists/60 (1.69, 91^st percentile) further establishes him as a well-rounded offensive contributor.

Despite his offensive production, Guenther does not contribute much in hits (2.14, 27^th percentile) or shot blocking (2.23, 35^th percentile). He thrives in offensive-zone starts (96^th percentile), making him a strong fantasy asset in scoring-focused leagues but less valuable in physical categories.

Quinton Byfield

Key Strengths: Balanced offensive presence, strong rush attempts.

Concerns: Low physicality, below-average defensive impact.

Byfield is a solid secondary scorer, ranking in the 67^th percentile for Goals/60 (0.72) and 58^th percentile for Assists/60 (0.92). His Rush Attempts (86th percentile) and Rebounds Created (89^th percentile) show his ability to generate offensive chances.

However, Byfield's Hits/60 (2.95, 39^th percentile) and Shots Blocked/60 (1.18, 8^th percentile) are well below average, limiting his usefulness in leagues that value physical stats. With 18:29 TOI per game (72^nd percentile), he is a consistent option for those needing moderate offensive production.

Morgan Rielly

Key Strengths: Strong ice time, steady offensive contributions.

Concerns: Low physicality, giveaway issues.

Rielly plays big minutes (21:48 TOI/GP, 91^st percentile), allowing him to contribute offensively, with an Assists/60 of 1.00 (65^th percentile). He also adds decent shot-blocking (3.90, 72^nd percentile).

However, Rielly's Hits/60 (0.95, 7^th percentile) and Giveaways (66, 94^th percentile) make him risky in formats that count turnovers. His value is highest in leagues emphasizing assists and ice time rather than defensive categories.

Cam Fowler

Key Strengths: High ice time, solid shot-blocking.

Concerns: Limited scoring, low hit volume.

Fowler provides valuable TOI (22:11 per game, 93^rd percentile) and contributes to blocked shots (4.37, 79^th percentile). While his Primary Points/60 (0.93, 75^th percentile) is respectable, his Shots/60 (3.38, 17^th percentile) and Hits/60 (0.33, 1^st percentile) severely limit his fantasy appeal.

Fowler is best suited for leagues where blocked shots and ice time are highly valued, but he doesn't provide much offensive firepower or physicality.

Adam Larsson

Key Strengths: Defensive specialist, high shot-blocking.

Concerns: Low offensive output, minimal playmaking.

Larsson stands out for shot blocking (5.79, 94^th percentile) and takeaways (84^th percentile), making him a valuable defensive category player. His Hits/60 (3.97, 52^nd percentile) are respectable but not elite.

Offensively, his Goals/60 (0.16, 25^th percentile) and Assists/60 (0.47, 22^nd percentile) are well below league average. If you need blocked shots and defensive reliability, Larsson is a strong asset, but he offers little in terms of scoring upside.

Final Takeaways

                •             Guenther is an elite goal-scorer with strong offensive value, but his lack of hits and blocks limits his fantasy appeal in physical leagues.

                •             Byfield is a well-rounded forward with solid rush attempts and rebounds created, making him useful in offensive leagues.

                •             Rielly remains a strong asset for TOI and assists, but his low physicality and high giveaways make him risky in certain formats.

                •             Fowler is a defensive specialist with good TOI and shot blocking, but his low hit totals and scoring numbers limit his fantasy appeal.

                •             Larsson is a strong category player for blocks and takeaways, but he lacks offensive upside and should only be considered in defensive-heavy leagues.

These five players bring different strengths depending on league format. If you need scoring upside, Guenther is your best bet. If you value defensive contributions, Larsson and Fowler provide strong depth. Adjust your roster accordingly!

How FPPG is Calculated

Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) combines goals, assists, shots, blocks, and hits, weighted to reflect their fantasy relevance, divided by games played. This calculation ensures that players are evaluated comprehensively based on their overall contributions to fantasy scoring.

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Data Source: NaturalStatTrick (February 4, 2025)