Welcome back on in everyone to North America's #1 most trusted weekly NHL salary cap article and oh buddy, do we have something to chat about. Have you guys heard about this Luka Doncic trade that happened?

Really though as fun as an ESPN notification as that was to get in the middle of the night this weekend, we're here to talk about the business of the NHL and right now business is boomin'. It was announced that the salary cap is going to spike, and even more so than I had predicted it going up. You know we have to go over this, so let's dive in.

For starters, below we have the season, salary cap ceiling, and salary cap floor as currently projected out over the next three regular seasons. If you're Mitch Marner or Kirill Kaprizov, I would want to sit down and then probably get on the phone with your representation after reading these numbers.

2025 – '26: $95.5M / $70.6M
2026 – '27: $104M / $76.9M
2027 – '28: $113.5M / $83.9M

First reaction when I saw this – WOW. I stand by one of the most impressive things that the NHL leadership did during COVID was keep the NHL at a flat cap rate, but if there was any silver lining in the shutdown, it was that the NHL realized that gate revenue would ultimately not be the answer for sustained financial success. Although we may not all like the sweater/helmet ads, or a Volkswagen Atlas driving along the halfwall while there's a puck battle on the power play, they're here to stay. Since 2020, the salary cap has gone up around 7%, now over the course of the next three seasons we're going to shatter that number climbing around 20%. Again, wow.

It is extremely important to note when overserving at these numbers, that looking at the years is crucial. These years that were listed go out past when the current CBA is set to expire on September 15^th, 2026. Now, I'm just going to go out on a limb and give a wild take here – money is good! I feel very strongly that we never come close to that expiration date with the amount of money that is at stake for all parties involved and would venture a guess that the NHL and NHLPA have likely begun negotiations to ratify a new CBA well before 2026. Does that mean that we see this happen before the Stanley Cup is presented to Nick Folingo as he passes it off to Alec Martinez? Probably not, but I wouldn't put it past both sides to come to an agreement by that time.

Looking at these top numbers, I'm telling you all that the following things are going to happen. First off, we're going to get players making $20M a season – Connor McDavid and Cale Makar back up the Brinks truck! Remember way back when Leon Draisaitl signed his new ticket and became the highest paid player in the NHL? By the time McDavid signs, the 14% cap hit that Draisaitl carries suddenly looks manageable. I've said it in the past and will say it again, every season we get most of the NHL GM's complaining about the current cap ceiling, and every season most of those teams spend right up to the top. We are inevitably going to see a signing in the next three years that have a stunned, "That player got that?" It happened when the NBA made a jump, same will likely take place on the ice. Of course, we're always going to have 'bad' contracts along with ones that won't age great, and I don't see that coming to a stop. Oh, to be an aging NHL defenseman on a long-term deal. Get bought out, go find an Adirondak chair with your name on it.

Along with the hike of the salary cap ceiling, we also see the salary cap floor rise as well. With this, I can see more scenarios than we see now of team's taking on 'bad' money to get to that bottom line number. It's another conversation for another time, but as much as I hate tanking, creating a losing mentality in your locker room and across your organization (plus the product is awful), if you're a club that is looking to bottom out, take on some 'bad' contracts and hope the lottery odds forever be in your favor. It's always easier to consider tearing things down when it comes to full roster breakdown and I am in no way insinuating that this increased cap will encourage more teams to bottom out, but the option to take on more salary that would otherwise be dispensable may come closer to the realm of possibility for some.

I know that there are some out there that will share concerns over if the increased cap will create a competitive imbalance between big and small market teams, and while I see exactly how you got to that reasoning, I don't think this disparity will become as prevalent as you might think. Why? Well, we currently have revenue sharing across the NHL which allows small market teams to stay afloat. Going over the $100M mark for some organizations is daunting, but I would be shocked if when the new CBA is put in place that it won't contain language that includes suitable competitive balance via revenue sharing for all organizations. Rest assured that a rising salary cap will not lead to NHL teams closing their doors. Stadium disputes, maybe, but not an increased salary cap.

If there's one other piece of a rising cap that could take place as early as this year, it's trades. Did the Colorado Avalanche not know that this was going to take place? Where there's going to be a change in how teams trade amongst each other will be with retained money. Think of whatever your clubs "worst" contract is, and that player has real value to a contender. If a team that thinks they can make a deep playoff run calls for that player but asks that you take part of that salary, why would you? I understand the desire to get assets back in return, but why would you have to retain a large sum of money given the raise of salary cap? I look at the Hawks and Seth Jones in this exact situation, why retain money? The salary cap is going from $88M to $92M next season, and higher than that in the future, and suddenly, an AAV of $9.5M isn't as unnerving as it is right now. I get that this scenario is only going to make sense for certain situations but if anything, this gives clubs that may be out of playoff contention and looking to sell a leverage point. Why do I have to retain money when I have flexibility given the future salary cap structure?

I can't say goodbye to this week's Capped without including a fantasy spin, and if there's one group of fantasy players that will benefit it's all of you out there in salary cap leagues. The salary cap gymnastics that take place each summer will still be in place, but maybe not as much as you previously thought it to be. Now, we'll likely hit a July 1^st sooner rather than later when you see players signing to egregiously large contracts but it's the new landscape of the NHL. The guy out there that has Artermi Panarin and Jack Eichel on his roster can breathe a sigh of relief. That said, the person out there with say John Tavares…the number that you had previously anticipated may be a tad higher than you thought prior.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

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