Ramblings: Updates on Crosby, Thompson, Hughes, and Paul; Recent Production from Bennett, Michkov, and Ekholm – February 6

Michael Clifford

2025-02-06

Pittsburgh Penguins forward Sidney Crosby left the team's game on Tuesday night during the third period. He did return for the shootout, but that was his only appearance after leaving the ice. The Penguins provided an update on Wednesday which is of interest not only to the Penguins, but to Team Canada as the Four Nations Cup is on the horizon:

He is being evaluated for an upper-body injury, according to the Penguins, so we'll know more when they provide more. With the tournament so close, though, any sort of timeline beyond a week would be bad news for the Canada roster.

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Some good-and-bad news on Buffalo Sabres forward Tage Thompson:

Thompson took that brutal hit over the weekend and missed Tuesday's game. Coach Lindy Ruff said that Thompson skated on his own on Wednesday and the Sabres have just one game remaining before the Four Nations break (Saturday in Nashville). It gives them time to evaluate Thompson, but if they don't want to risk anything, he could be given the night off which would be followed by a two-week break.

In more Sabres news, Ruff said that defenceman Mattias Samuelsson will be out until after the break. This is a player who has had a lot of trouble staying healthy in recent seasons, and with a game missed on the weekend, he will have played just 60% of regular season games since the start of the 2022-23 season.

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After leaving Tampa Bay's game on Tuesday, a positive update on Lightning forward Nick Paul:

Looks like he should be good to go for Tampa's rematch on Thursday night against the Ottawa Senators.

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A bit of an update on Vancouver defenceman Quinn Hughes:

Hughes won't be going to San Jose to face the Sharks on Thursday night, but the hope is that he can return on the weekend for Saturday's home game against Toronto. There were some quotes about this potentially putting the Four Nations Cup in jeopardy, though, so maybe this is a case where a player will take that two-week break to heal an injury rather than going to the tournament. Of course, it is all speculation for now and we need to wait and see what the firm update is from Hughes and the team later this week.

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A late short-handed goal from Chris Kreider, his 16th goal of the season, was enough to lift the New York Rangers to a 3-2 win over the Boston Bruins on Wednesday night. He finished with 18:17 in ice time, his highest mark in seven games, which included time on the top power-play unit. That ice time has been too inconsistent to make him a reliable fantasy option night in and night out, but if he can keep getting anywhere close to 17-18 minutes, that changes the equation.

Mika Zibanejad assisted on that Kreider goal on top of assisting on a first-period tally from Artemi Panarin. Zibanejad had a shot, two blocks, and a hit in over 19 minutes in ice time, and now has one goal and five assists in three games since J.T. Miller was traded to the team.

Vincen Trocheck had the other goal, finishing with two shots, two blocks, two PIMs, and three hits. K'Andre Miller assisted on that goal and had four blocks and two hits in the game.

Igor Shesterkin had a slow night in net, but stopped 15 of the 17 shots he faced for his 18th win of the season.

David Pastrnak scored his 28th goal of the season while Elias Lindholm scored his 10th, but it wasn't enough to get Boston any points in this one. This was a big game as far as chasing down a Wild Card playoff spot is concerned.

Charlie McAvoy registered an assist, a shot, a block, and a hit in nearly 24 minutes of ice time. He has three points in four games since returning from injury.

Joonas Korpisalo took the loss in net for the Bruins, allowing three goals on 22 shots.

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Zach Hyman scored a power-play goal in overtime to lift the Edmonton Oilers to a 4-3 win over the Chicago Blackhawks. Since returning from injury on December 5th, Hyman now has 16 goals, 24 points, and 92 shots in 29 games. Those 16 goals have him tied for sixth in the league over that span.

Leon Draisaitl tallied a goal, an assist, and three shots in the victory. He now has 81 points on the season, which leads the league, and his 38 goals leads the league by a wide margin (William Nylander, 33). Heading into the Four Nations break, he seems to be the front runner for the Hart Trophy.

Jeff Skinner also had a goal and an assist in the win while Viktor Arvidsson had the other tally. That makes three goals in the last five games for Skinner, and he now sits with 0.99 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, which is an 84th percentile mark among all regular forwards.

Darnell Nurse didn't get on the scoresheet, but he had a solid multi-cat night with six shots, four blocks, and two hits.

Calvin Pickard got the win, stopping 29 of 32 shots faced.

Lukas Reichel, Ryan Donato (PP), and Alec Martinez had the goals for Chicago. Donato assisted on the Martines goal, and that gives Donato 32 points this season, a career-high mark (he had 31 with Seattle back in 2021-22). That is pretty good production for someone averaging under 15 minutes a game for the team that is 31st in the league by goals per minute.

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Arvid Soderblom was solid in net for Chicago but allowed four goals on 38 shots for the loss.

Earlier in the day, the Blackhawks sent Colton Dach to the AHL.

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Los Angeles hosted Montreal on Wednesday night, and the Kings skated out with a 6-3 win. The game wasn't even as close as the score might indicate, having watched this. Montreal managed just 21 shots on goal and 43 shot attempts overall; the Kings had 23 shots and 52 shot attempts after the second period alone.

Kevin Fiala scored twice for Los Angeles while Warren Foegele and Vladislav Gavrikov each had a goal and an assist. Fiala wound up with four shots, and is up to 12 goals in his last 27 games dating back to late November. His 0.37 goals per game this season are his highest mark with the Kings.

Trevor Moore and Brandt Clarke had the other tallies for the Kings. Clarke finished with three shots and a block in under 15 minutes of ice time. His 1.81 points per 60 minutes this season is in the 91st percentile of all defencemen.

Quinton Byfield had three assists, three shots, and a block in the win. That gives Byfield six points in his last six games and 16 points in his last 22 games. This is more like the player we were hoping he would be this season.

Darcy Kuemper stopped 18 of the 21 shots he faced for his 16th win of the season.

Montreal got all their goals from the blue line as Mike Matheson, Logan Mailloux, and Alex Carrier scored the goals for the Habs. Mailloux dressed in place of Jayden Struble and finished with a shot and three hits in 13:19 of ice time.  

Kirby Dach assisted on the Mailloux goal and Dach now has 13 points in 20 games since the Christmas break.

Goaltender Jakub Dobes allowed five goals on 36 shots for the loss.

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Players go through cold streaks, and it sucks for fantasy managers because these are often productive players who are just killing the week-to-week upside of a fantasy roster. It makes it hard to keep them on rosters, but it's important to distinguish between "cold streak and playing poorly" and "cold streak and a bit unlucky". Let's try to look for some players who've not found a lot of success since the Christmas break and whether they can snap out of their funk. All data from Natural Stat Trick and as of the afternoon of Wednesday, February 5th.

Sam Bennett

Bennett has four goals in his last eight games, so it seems he's finally starting to turn a corner. Those are also the only four goals he has in the last 28 games, and he has just two assists in 19 games since the holiday break. So, what's the deal here?

Out of 259 forwards with at least 200 minutes at 5-on-5 since Christmas, Bennett leads by on-ice expected goals-for per 60 minutes relative to teammates:

That means Florida is creating better shot quality when he's on the ice, compared to his teammates, than any other forward in the league. Despite that, the Panthers have scored just eight goals on the 170 shots for which he's been on the ice, a paltry 4.7% conversion rate. Even worse is that on top of the low goal rate, Bennett is registering a point on just 50% of the 5-on-5 goals scored with him on the ice (he has been over 55% in each season of his career). Very high shot quality but low goal rates and low goal participation has crushed his production.

By the same token, that speaks to the upside he has. If the team had been shooting about 8.5% with him on the ice (three-year average is 8.6%), and he had been registering a point on 60% of those goals, he would have nine points at 5-on-5 in his last 19 games instead of four. Those are just some normal averages, and not a sustained hot streak. If they keep creating as they have and they get hot? Bennett has immense upside because of his shot volume and hit rates.

Coming out of the Four Nations break, Florida's first 10 games include Seattle, Nashville, Columbus, Buffalo, and Montreal. The signs of the turnaround are already there, but the schedule after the break seems like a good time for Bennett's fantasy value to really start surging.  

Matvei Michkov

Since the holiday break, the Philadelphia Flyers have generated 3.7 expected goals and 29.5 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Michkov on the ice (both lead the team). Across the league, he has one of the biggest differences in on-ice expected goal rate compared to his teammates:

Of course, he wouldn't be on this list if things were going well, and the team is shooting just 5.6% with him on the ice in that stretch, which is last among their forwards. He has just five points at 5-on-5 over his last 20 games as a result, and that's with him scoring one-third of the team's goals with him on the ice (2/6). Add poor power-play production and the John Tortorella Lineup Blender Factor, and it's not been a good stretch for Michkov.

That the team is creating so much with him on the ice is the positive sign here. He is a good playmaker already and that he's second among their regular forwards in total shot attempts per minute over those 20 games (behind Owen Tippett) tells us he's getting involved both with his own shots as well as creating for teammates. Without an improved power play, high-end production this season is unlikely, but things should be a lot better for Michkov over the final two months of the season than they have been for the last six weeks.

Mattias Ekholm

The largest positive deviation by expected goals-for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with a defenceman on the ice since Christmas belongs to Zach Werenski, which probably isn't much of a surprise. The second-largest positive deviation belongs to an Edmonton Oilers defenceman, and probably not the one we're thinking of:

To be fair, Evan Bouchard is just behind Ekholm because they do play together so often, but the difference has been the team is scoring with Bouchard on the ice (3.2 goals-for/60) and not so much with Ekholm (2.3). That has led to Ekholm producing just 0.9 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and he sits at 0.81 on the season. For reference, over Ekholm's first 100 games with the Oilers, he registered 1.71 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, or more than double the rate of his effort in 2024-25.

Considering the Oilers are shooting just 6.5% at 5-on-5 with Ekholm on the ice since Christmas, but are 8.5% as a team, there is an improvement coming. John Klingberg being added to the mix might muddle some of Ekholm's ice time, but the team's goal rate will climb, and his production along with it.

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